Fantasy Football Cafe Forum

by **comm1680** » Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:16 pm

Pretty low scoring week for defense. Top 10 teams in the formula scored an average of 7.1 pts (1 pt more than the lower 22). Unless you had the Saints, you didn't get over 10 points. So while most top teams did just average, only 4 teams outside the top 7 scored more than 10. My sleepers in Detroit, Cleveland, and San Fran did awful. Still amazing what happened in the Cleveland - Detroit game. Everyone expected it to be messy, and instead TDs were tossed like crazy.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Code: Select all: Team Opponent Score Philadelphia Washington -2716 Cincinatti Cleveland -2575 Dallas Oakland -2352 Green Bay Detroit -2244 San Diego Kansas City -2087 Minnesota Chicago -2041 Miami Buffalo -1899 Baltimore Pittsburgh -1594 New York Jets Carolina -1578 Atlanta Tampa Bay -1506 Seattle St. Louis -1304 Indianapolis Houston -1172 New York Giants Denver -1103 Washington Philadelphia -1095 Pittsburgh Baltimore -1006 Carolina New York Jets -970 San Fran Jacksonville -941 Denver New York Giants -902 Buffalo Miami -881 Oakland Dallas -871 Jacksonville San Fran -869 Arizona Tennessee -843 Tennessee Arizona -748 New Orleans New England -726 Detroit Green Bay -703 St. Louis Seattle -692 New England New Orleans -407 Chicago Minnesota -357 Cleveland Cincinatti -247 Tampa Bay Atlanta 46 Kansas City San Diego 128 Houston Indianapolis 438

Ten of the top 11 teams look like excellent plays. The only one that concerns me is the Jets. Their run defense has gone downhill since Jenkins went down. The Panthers may just run it all day. Seattle is a great sleeper play and I consider Arizona a bit of an outlier. I'd play them here and still feel ok with it.

And here's updated rankings for the next 3 weeks (12-14):

Code: Select all: Team Score Pittsburgh -6416 San Diego -5670.8 Cincinatti -5649.3 Philadelphia -5431 Minnesota -5315 Baltimore -5183.9 New York Jets -5007.7 Green Bay -4755.1 New Orleans -4737.6 Oakland -4043.4 Buffalo -3855.8 Washington -3740.9 New England -3544.8 Dallas -3518.2 Denver -3474.1 Indianapolis -3469.4 Chicago -3388.2 Arizona -3387.4 Seattle -3275 New York Giants -3260 Miami -3168.6 San Fran -2751.5 Atlanta -2337.7 Carolina -2108.4 Tennessee -1881.8 Tampa Bay -1481 Houston -1444.2 Kansas City -1366.9 Cleveland -1121.8 Jacksonville -1102.1 St. Louis -1075.1 Detroit -488.9

San Diego has come on as of late. They should continue to do well the next few weeks. Cinci is still a great play. The biggest surprise is Oakland, I'd consider this a bit of an outlier as they have two good running teams coming up (Dallas and Pitt).

And finally, I have a playoff ranking list for those forward thinkers out there:

Code: Select all: Team Score Minnesota -6008.5 Arizona -5900.3 Pittsburgh -5606.4 New England -5558.9 Philadelphia -5550.6 New Orleans -5469.5 Green Bay -5238.4 Baltimore -4966.1 New York Giants -4782.4 Oakland -4731.1 Indianapolis -4509.3 Denver -4368.6 Washington -4161.9 Cincinatti -4019.3 Cleveland -3907.7 Seattle -3248.3 San Diego -3031 San Fran -3004.9 Kansas City -2800.2 Atlanta -2784.3 Houston -2777.9 Dallas -2718.3 Miami -2706.2 Buffalo -2606.3 Tennessee -2526.6 Chicago -2390 New York Jets -2076.6 Tampa Bay -804.2 Detroit -693.6 Carolina -141.3 St. Louis -98.7 Jacksonville 1420

by **TReeSMoKE** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:20 am

Banged up GB DST minus Kampman & HArris @ DET or MIN vs CHI & ????

by **WaCougMBS** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 11:55 am

So, as far as the rest of the season goes, I'm sitting with Cincy and Denver at this point. I am starting to feel Denver might not be startable since they can't stop the run and have lingering issues on offense, so is there someone on the wire I should take a stab at? Oakland is the best available "playoff" top-10 defense out there, but I almost feel like I'm better off using the Bengals in their 3 great remaining matchups and then just playing the weekly matchups based on your formula results. Any thoughts? :-?

by **DraftDodger** » Thu Nov 26, 2009 8:44 pm

I'm plugging Atlanta in this week; the few other teams left on the wire are just plain horrible, and I don't like the Giants this week, who've been a dismal disappointment.

by **jetlag** » Fri Nov 27, 2009 10:31 am

Hmmm... I might pick up Seattle to start instead of playing New Orleans this week. Dunno. Will the Saints continue to sack and get turnovers against the Pats?

by **Team Gooch** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 12:52 pm

I wasnt sure about the Ravens D this week with all of their injuries but now that the Steelers are going with the 3rd string QB(Dixon) I feel a lot better.