Last week in the formula, you likely did pretty well if you had a top-10 ranked team. Outside of Baltimore, all teams were above 5 pts. Tops in that group were Green Bay, San Diego, Minnesota, and the New York Jets who all scored over 14. I was concerned with the Jets, but they got things back together and put together their 2nd straight fantasy-usable week. My sleeper in Seattle did fantastic with 15 pts and Arizona stayed respectable with 7.
For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.
Team Opponent Score Pittsburgh Oakland -2816 New Orleans Washington -2540 Denver Kansas City -2392 Cincinatti Detroit -2371 San Diego Cleveland -2289 New York Jets Buffalo -2092 Minnesota Arizona -1720 Philadelphia Atlanta -1486 Chicago St. Louis -1437 Carolina Tampa Bay -1421 Tampa Bay Carolina -1349 Baltimore Green Bay -1348 Buffalo New York Jets -1346 Seattle San Fran -1312 San Fran Seattle -1303 Green Bay Baltimore -1224 New England Miami -1134 Oakland Pittsburgh -1074 Houston Jacksonville -1059 Indianapolis Tennessee -986 New York Giants Dallas -860 Dallas New York Giants -827 Atlanta Philadelphia -742 St. Louis Chicago -721 Arizona Minnesota -537 Miami New England -295 Washington New Orleans -80 Kansas City Denver -36 Detroit Cincinatti -28 Jacksonville Houston -13 Cleveland San Diego 114 Tennessee Indianapolis 256
Most of the starts look pretty obvious this week. I don't think you should be afraid to start any of the top 10 defenses. This includes my sleeper for this week, Carolina. I'd also feel ok starting Tampa here. I'd usually avoid a division rivalry like this, but considering the strength of the Carolina pass defense and Matt Moore starting, both defenses should perform well.
I've also included next week's forecast for those in a tight playoff race.
Team Opponent Score Pittsburgh Cleveland -2576 Washington Oakland -2292 Baltimore Detroit -2033 Green Bay Chicago -1972 Buffalo Kansas City -1916 New England Carolina -1888 Minnesota Cincinatti -1742 New York Jets Tampa Bay -1709 Arizona San Fran -1693 Miami Jacksonville -1586 Oakland Washington -1568 New Orleans Atlanta -1539 Philadelphia New York Giants -1415 Tennessee St. Louis -1340 Indianapolis Denver -1269 Chicago Green Bay -1205 San Diego Dallas -1158 Kansas City Buffalo -1022 Houston Seattle -930 New York Giants Philadelphia -909 Tampa Bay New York Jets -888 San Fran Arizona -822 Cleveland Pittsburgh -797 Seattle Houston -758 Cincinatti Minnesota -577 Denver Indianapolis -508 Dallas San Diego -492 Jacksonville Miami -176 Carolina New England -44 Detroit Baltimore 92 St. Louis Tennessee 119 Atlanta New Orleans 147
Team Score Minnesota -6789 Arizona -5903 Pittsburgh -5798 Green Bay -5581 New England -5439 New Orleans -5415 Philadelphia -5119 Baltimore -4769 Indianapolis -4730 Denver -4695 New York Giants -4448 Oakland -4031 Washington -3985 Cleveland -3918 San Fran -3805 Cincinatti -3495 Seattle -3437 Miami -3388 San Diego -3190 Buffalo -2934 New York Jets -2895 Houston -2811 Atlanta -2699 Dallas -2527 Tennessee -2237 Kansas City -2120 Chicago -1860 Tampa Bay -1369 Carolina -839 Detroit -514 St. Louis -62 Jacksonville 1376
If Green Bay is somehow available, they have a nice remaining schedule. Also, Indy looks to be a good defense for the playoffs. I'm not concerned with them sitting people. Combining a team like the Jets for this and next week and then Indy for the playoffs could work nicely.
I'm also surprized to see Washington's D so high on the list next week. Granted they are playing Oakland.
I'm equally surprized to see that Tenessee's D vs. STL isn't ranked higher on the list for next week. I may go with Tenessee over Washington for next week.
I just dropped CIN to pick up NO. It's the worst week to do it as CIN is going to demolish DET, but I'm 10-2 and this is not a must win week for me as I'm already #1 w/ a week 14 BYE. NO has looked solid all year and I'm hoping they can carry me through 15 and 16 to another championship. Still stunned someone dropped them last week just b/c they played NE.
2010 12-team .5PPR QB - Ryan, Vick RB - S. Greene, Forte, Stewart, F. Jones, Sproles WR - Moss, Megatron, NYG Smith, Floyd, M. Williams (TB) TE - Cooley D - CIN (week to week) K - Bironas
I know the rankings don't take home field advantage or personnel changes into effect, but considering those, would the face GB is home against Baltimore on a Monday Night move them up? Or the fact KC hasn't lost to Denver at home in December in 14+ years (and as bad as they were last year, scored 33 on Denver in a win at Arrowhead) - would that move Denver down?
Any chance we'll be seeing a week-by-week playoff breakdown before the fact? I am specifically wondering if keeping Denver for week 15 (versus the Raiders) is worth it (Which I think it prolly is), or if I could/should drop them to add some depth at a skill position and play the matchups when the time comes...
I have Cincy for a nice start this week and in week 16, but I'll need a quality start out of someone in week 15 to get there in the first place...thoughts?
Eighty-Five wrote:I know the rankings don't take home field advantage or personnel changes into effect, but considering those, would the face GB is home against Baltimore on a Monday Night move them up? Or the fact KC hasn't lost to Denver at home in December in 14+ years (and as bad as they were last year, scored 33 on Denver in a win at Arrowhead) - would that move Denver down?
I need a win and have GB, Denver, and the Jets.
Hopefully you played the Jets. If not, I could see GB doing ok here. Though, you need to keep in mind that the Ravens basically just played the same defense last week (Pitt).
WaCougMBS wrote:Any chance we'll be seeing a week-by-week playoff breakdown before the fact? I am specifically wondering if keeping Denver for week 15 (versus the Raiders) is worth it (Which I think it prolly is), or if I could/should drop them to add some depth at a skill position and play the matchups when the time comes...
I have Cincy for a nice start this week and in week 16, but I'll need a quality start out of someone in week 15 to get there in the first place...thoughts?
I have been running that stats for those week on my end. It's just a lot to publish at this point. I will give a give a week by week playoff preview next week to help you out. Regarding your situation, particularly, I think Denver should be a good play that week, especially considering it's at Denver.
I know the rankings don't take home field advantage or personnel changes into effect, but considering those, would the face GB is home against Baltimore on a Monday Night move them up? Or the fact KC hasn't lost to Denver at home in December in 14+ years (and as bad as they were last year, scored 33 on Denver in a win at Arrowhead) - would that move Denver down?
I need a win and have GB, Denver, and the Jets.
I got burned by NO this week as well. Had CIN early in the week but then late, I changed to NO because CIN just wasn't putting up the numbers they should.
Going to stick with picking the defense that is playing the worst teams: TB, Det, KC, StL. NOTE: Cle and OAK have lost their 'pushover' status since they seem to have settled on a QB.
I'd put Car, Jax, and Cle in the tier below.
Maybe Atl too - what the heck happened in Week 13?
Last edited by sophus on Sun Dec 06, 2009 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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by comm1680 » Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:01 pm 
