Waiver Wire Defense formula - Week 14

[comm1680]

Last week in the formula, the top-10 averaged just under 11 pts compared to an overall average of 7 pts for all teams. Pitt and Minn were flops, which is just fluky, but the rest did quite well. My sleeper in Carolina got a cool 19 pts.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Week 14 Formula:

Code: Select all

Team            Opponent        Score
Pittsburgh      Cleveland       -2346
Green Bay       Chicago         -2064
Baltimore       Detroit         -2028
Washington      Oakland         -2004
Buffalo         Kansas City     -1991
New York Jets   Tampa Bay       -1905
New England     Carolina        -1715
Arizona         San Fran        -1679
Minnesota       Cincinatti      -1582
New Orleans     Atlanta         -1560
Miami           Jacksonville    -1495
Philadelphia    New York Giants -1420
Oakland         Washington      -1398
Chicago         Green Bay       -1283
Tennessee       St. Louis       -1240
Indianapolis    Denver          -1236
Kansas City     Buffalo         -1134
Houston         Seattle         -1092
San Diego       Dallas          -1050
Tampa Bay       New York Jets    -941
Seattle         Houston          -821
San Fran        Arizona          -793
Cincinatti      Minnesota        -770
New York Giants Philadelphia     -746
Cleveland       Pittsburgh       -558
Denver          Indianapolis     -468
Dallas          San Diego        -313
Detroit         Baltimore        -232
Jacksonville    Miami            -222
Carolina        New England      -191
St. Louis       Tennessee          58
Atlanta         New Orleans       292

The Jets have been playing fairly well fantasy-wise lately. I'd rank them my #1 sleeper, followed by Tenn. Tenn is ranked mid-range, but that's just too good a matchup to resist. Also, Washington looks pretty good. But, I'd only go with them if Haynesworth is playing.

I've also calculated the next 2 weeks for the playoffs. If you have a team like Minn, Arizona, Philly, Green Bay, Pitt, New Orleans, or Indy, you'll probably feel pretty good after reading this.

Week 15 Formula:

Code: Select all

Team            Opponent        Score
Denver          Oakland         -2649
Minnesota       Carolina        -2379
Arizona         Detroit         -2375
Philadelphia    San Fran        -2084
New England     Buffalo         -1935
Green Bay       Pittsburgh      -1824
Pittsburgh      Green Bay       -1792
Indianapolis    Jacksonville    -1742
New York Giants Washington      -1626
Seattle         Tampa Bay       -1513
New Orleans     Dallas          -1484
Baltimore       Chicago         -1401
Houston         St. Louis       -1361
Cleveland       Kansas City     -1279
New York Jets   Atlanta         -1189
San Diego       Cincinatti      -1117
Kansas City     Cleveland       -1096
Atlanta         New York Jets   -1066
Tampa Bay       Seattle          -977
San Fran        Philadelphia     -926
Chicago         Baltimore        -880
Miami           Tennessee        -686
Cincinatti      San Diego        -664
Oakland         Denver           -637
Washington      New York Giants  -606
Tennessee       Miami            -521
Carolina        Minnesota        -458
St. Louis       Houston          -244
Buffalo         New England      -205
Dallas          New Orleans       -20
Detroit         Arizona             8
Jacksonville    Indianapolis      802


Seattle and Houston look like the big sleepers for week 15. I'd rank them in that order as well.


Week 16 Formula:

Code: Select all

Team           Opponent       Score
Cincinatti     Kansas City    -2288
New Orleans    Tampa Bay      -2276
San Fran       Detroit        -2160
Minnesota      Chicago        -2103
Green Bay      Seattle        -2022
Arizona        St. Louis      -1974
Dallas         Washington     -1729
Philadelphia   Denver         -1666
Indianapolis   New York Jets  -1646
Atlanta        Buffalo        -1640
New York GiantsCarolina       -1629
Oakland        Cleveland      -1583
Cleveland      Oakland        -1463
New England    Jacksonville   -1457
Pittsburgh     Baltimore      -1389
Denver         Philadelphia   -1377
Seattle        Green Bay      -1214
Baltimore      Pittsburgh     -1161
Miami          Houston         -988
San Diego      Tennessee       -848
Buffalo        Arizona         -770
Carolina       New York Giants -763
Washington     Dallas          -751
Detroit        San Fran        -663
Houston        Miami           -642
Chicago        Minnesota       -341
New York Jets  Indianapolis    -185
Kansas City    Cincinatti      -116
St. Louis      Arizona            7
Tennessee      San Diego        129
Tampa Bay      New Orleans      417
Jacksonville   New England      590


If you have Cinci, you may want to consider holding onto them for this matchup. Dallas should also do well if they were somehow dropped, like they were in my league. I have trouble trusting Atlanta here, but it sounds like Matt Ryan should be back by then. So, I'd keep and eye on Atlanta and Oakland the next 2 weeks and go with whoever is playing better. If Matt Ryan comes back, Atlanta would probably get the nod. But, it will be a lot clearer next week.

[silverZ]

Going with the formula and starting BUF over ARI. *crosses fingers*

[WaCougMBS]

The fact that I have a bye this week with Denver and Cincy sitting on my bench is ABSOLUTELY music to my ears!

[FantasyMan13]

great call with carolina last week... helped me lock up a first round bye. keep up the great work man!

[chcbb]

Agreed, Carolina last week came through big for me! I've got Baltimore this week, and then picked up Arizona to help me through the playoffs in weeks 15 & 16. Matchups against Det, Det and StL sound good!

[dare]

Torn betwen:
GreenBay @ Chicago or
Buffalo @ Kansas City

Thoughts?

[Amazing Oopah]

Torn betwen:
GreenBay @ Chicago or
Buffalo @ Kansas City

Thoughts?

I would keep rolling with the GB Def... They are playing well and Cutler seems to be dinged up.

[comm1680]

Torn betwen:
GreenBay @ Chicago or
Buffalo @ Kansas City

Thoughts?

Go with GB. They have been playing at a very high level and ranked the #1 defense on football outsiders for a few weeks now by far. I will be rolling with them the rest of the year. Buffalo should be decent, but I expect that game to be the Jamaal Charles show.

[z32royale13]

Let's hope the Pitt was a fluke ... never saw that one comin ...

[jacob.is.right]

Should I start Buffalo or Washington? I know the formula says Buffalo, but I think I need something a little more qualitative than that.