by bcfisk » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:43 pm
Common sense would tell us that KC is a terrible offense so you want your defense facing them. I was surprised to see that KC is just average at giving up defensive fantasy points. So you've got a choice between a slightly below average defense (Ten) against the worst offense (StL) vs. a slightly above average defense (Buf) against an exactly average offense (KC). Seems like a pretty clear call for Ten when you realize KC isn't a particularly great matchup.
As far as how accurate these projections are, I just started this last week and I was 4.5 pts off on average. Not sure how good that is compared to Yahoo or the Cafe Sit/Start. Also keep in mind that the variance with defenses is pretty big and the projection is meant to convey what you would expect if the same matchup occurred 100 times; a sample size of 1 week doesn't mean a whole lot. Projections are just there to tell you which defenses are the best bets to score more points. Most of the time they should pan out, though they often won't. Who would have predicted that Washington would drop 30 points on the Saints D? That was the consensus best DEF matchup (or a close 2nd) last week and the Saints DEF walked away with 5 pts.
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