Waiver Wire Defense formula

[comm1680]

Last week in the formula, 4 of the top 6 scored over 12 pts. For my sleepers: the Jets did well with 16 pts, Tenn performed better than expected with 21, and Washington came through with 14 pts.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Week 15 Formula:

Code: Select all

Team            Opponent        Score
Denver          Oakland         -2719
Arizona         Detroit         -2271
Minnesota       Carolina        -2219
Green Bay       Pittsburgh      -2062
Philadelphia    San Fran        -2022
New England     Buffalo         -1903
Indianapolis    Jacksonville    -1725
Cleveland       Kansas City     -1671
Pittsburgh      Green Bay       -1668
Houston         St. Louis       -1527
Seattle         Tampa Bay       -1520
Baltimore       Chicago         -1482
New York Giants Washington      -1430
New Orleans     Dallas          -1266
New York Jets   Atlanta         -1259
San Fran        Philadelphia    -1122
Kansas City     Cleveland       -1088
San Diego       Cincinatti       -995
Tampa Bay       Seattle          -956
Washington      New York Giants  -930
Atlanta         New York Jets    -818
Tennessee       Miami            -760
Chicago         Baltimore        -697
Oakland         Denver           -669
Cincinatti      San Diego        -578
Miami           Tennessee        -543
Buffalo         New England      -425
Carolina        Minnesota        -418
Detroit         Arizona          -151
St. Louis       Houston             2
Dallas          New Orleans       129
Jacksonville    Indianapolis      640


If you've been stashing Arizona, this is the week you start using them, especially with CPep likely to start again. I like Seattle the best for sleepers. Cleveland is tough to go with here. They played well lastweek, but tend to play Cinci and Pitt tough, and it's at KC. I'd avoid this matchup if I could. If Indy is available, I'd be tempted to play them tonight.

Week 16 formula:

Code: Select all

Team            Opponent        Score
San Fran        Detroit         -2429
Cincinatti      Kansas City     -2330
New Orleans     Tampa Bay       -2263
Minnesota       Chicago         -2077
Green Bay       Seattle         -2076
Arizona         St. Louis       -2006
Cleveland       Oakland         -1890
Philadelphia    Denver          -1690
Dallas          Washington      -1595
Indianapolis    New York Jets   -1542
Atlanta         Buffalo         -1496
Oakland         Cleveland       -1448
New York Giants Carolina        -1414
New England     Jacksonville    -1408
Baltimore       Pittsburgh      -1403
Buffalo         Arizona         -1307
Denver          Philadelphia    -1170
Seattle         Green Bay       -1089
Pittsburgh      Baltimore       -1080
Washington      Dallas           -910
Miami           Houston          -893
Carolina        New York Giants  -803
Houston         Miami            -788
San Diego       Tennessee        -578
Detroit         San Fran         -409
New York Jets   Indianapolis     -372
Chicago         Minnesota        -357
Kansas City     Cincinatti       -239
St. Louis       Arizona          -209
Tennessee       San Diego         -33
Jacksonville    New England       438
Tampa Bay       New Orleans       545


I will also include week 17 next week.

[chcbb]

I have Arizona and Baltimore, playing Arizona this week for sure.

However, SF and Cincy are both available on the FA list... should I drop Baltimore for one of them (which one?) to start instead of Arizona in week 16, or stick w/ the Cards vs. StL?

[POPCORN1]

I have Minnesota and Arizona, tough decision. Do I go with the better D with a good matchup or a decent D with a great matchup ?

[moochman]

I have Arizona and Baltimore, playing Arizona this week for sure.

However, SF and Cincy are both available on the FA list... should I drop Baltimore for one of them (which one?) to start instead of Arizona in week 16, or stick w/ the Cards vs. StL?

I can't see any reason to not go with the Cards D vs two weaklings like the Lions and Rams.

[doober]

Been riding Pitt all year and finally dropped them...I now have Seattle and Eagles? Both at home...Djax is a huge plus, at home, 49ers traveling from the west coast on short week...Seattle, embarrassed last week in that crazy stadium against the Rookie QB...Special teams will have to lead me to victory so i need a big hitter here..Going up against dallas clark and mjd already, plus he has Moreno which im afraid will be huge this week...thanks for your help, i appreciate it.

[HomerJay]

I've used Philly all year but picked up Hou for the matchup....I guess I'll roll with what got me in the playoffs.

[Dr.Bloodmoney]

Thinking I can't go wrong but Denver or Arizona I need some big points...

[two_step08]

what do i do here..i got cinci, and am saving them for next week...but for this week heres the FA--my league only factors shutouts into the scoring (in other words you get no points if your defense holds the other team to a field goal); so basically im looking for TO's and sacks and TDs-cleveland is the highest rated left, but what would you guys do

13 NY Giants D NYG at Was Cleared 1 0 11(1) 10(1) 0 97
16 Tennessee D Ten Mia Cleared 0 0 6(0) 16(4) 0 95
17 Miami D Mia at Ten Cleared 0 2 4(1) 12(1) 0 93
19 Tampa Bay D TB at Sea Cleared 0 1 7(0) 13(2) 0 89
19 Carolina D Car Min Cleared 0 0 10(0) 18(1) 2 89
24 Dallas D Dal at NO Cleared 2 0 8(0) 10(1) 0 88
25 Kansas City D KC Cle Cleared 0 1 13(0) 9(0) 1 78
26 Atlanta D Atl at NYJ Cleared 0 0 12(1) 8(1) 0 75
27 Cleveland D Cle at KC Cleared 1 1 8(0) 6(0) 1 74
28 Detroit D Det Ari Cleared 0 0 10(1) 8(1) 2 73
29 Washington D Was NYG Cleared 0 0 6(0) 9(0) 0 66
29 Oakland D Oak at Den Cleared 0 0 11(0) 8(0) 0 66
31 Jacksonville D Jax Ind Cleared 0 0 9(0) 14(0) 0 59
32 St. Louis D StL Hou Cleared 1 0 8(0) 8(1) 0 57

[45 Starz]

so when does the 2010 Weekly Defensive selections get posted?

[chcbb]

so when does the 2010 Weekly Defensive selections get posted?

Good question - I'm definitely doing the WW defense thing again this year... maybe they need more than one week of data to crunch the numbers for the formula?
EDIT: Last year they didn't start until week 4, so probably the same this year.

Why do they still have 2009 as a sticky though?