Playoff Checklist

[mattb47]

Figured this would be a good way to see visually how we're progressing in being able to still manage to make the playoffs. Here are the things we need to happen to have a chance of getting in the playoffs.

Week 15
[ X ] Beat Green Bay
[ X ] Indianapolis defeats Jacksonville
[ X ] Atlanta defeats New York Jets (not 100% necessary but would be good)
[ X ] Oakland defeats Denver

Week 16
[ X ] Beat Baltimore
[ X ] New England defeats Jacksonville
[ - ] Miami defeats Houston (or NE over HOU in week 17)
[ - ] Indianapolis defeats New York Jets
[ X ] Philadelphia defeats Denver

Week 17
[ ] Beat Miami
[ ] New England defeats Houston
[ ] Cincinnati defeats New York Jets
[ ] Oakland defeats Baltimore

Updated again. The scenarios now are as follows:

Steelers are in if:
1) They win AND Texans and Jets lose OR
2) They win AND Texans and Ravens lose

[mattb47]

Ok, this has been updated...it really almost comes down completely to what happens next week. If we win and the other teams that "should" win also win (NE, SD, Indy, and Philly) and Miami beats Houston, it puts us in position to hold the position of "win and get in" in week 17. We no longer need Baltimore to lose to Oakland, but Denver to lose to Philly instead which is much more possible and likely in my eyes. A Baltimore loss to Oakland would just be icing on the cake.

[mattb47]

Updated...just need to win and have 2 more games go our way and we're in

[Munboy]

Basically what it's come down to...

1- Beat Miami

2- Three of these four teams need to lose or
Broncos
Jets
Ravens
Texans

Can somebody explain why the Texans are listed over the Steelers? If I remember right, if there's identical records, it goes to head to head, but since the Steelers didn't play the Texans it goes to record in their division. The Steelers are 2-4 while the Texans are 1-5 in their respective division. They're both 5-6 in conference play...I just don't understand...I think I'll need to review the tie breaker rules again...

EDIT
Ok, just reviewed the rules...since they're not in the same division, division records don't count, so it goes to conference play... Since they have the same conference record, it goes to similar games played....Won't look into that right now, so if anybody cares to compare schedules, I won't mind

What muddy waters tie-breakers are...

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

It would suck to get down to that coin toss and lose.


EDIT:
Nevermind, Mattb's got me covered right here
viewtopic.php?t=466287

[mattb47]

Yup, I tried to cover it all there...it's a pretty complicated situation but I think I have a good handle now on how it all shakes out. Houston has a better record in the common games than we do which hurts us and is why we would be behind them. I never thought it would come down to a situation where, as a Steelers fan, would need to cheer for the Patriots and Bengals to win...unbelievable. Those two teams are our best chance at the playoffs though...Pats need to take care of the Texans and Bengals need to take care of the Jets.

The Broncos don't matter with us as long as the Texans lose...we beat them so we will beat them out in the end if we tie them at the end of the season.

[petedog9]

If friggin Cladwell would have kept in Peyton & Co. , I would like our chances alot better... That guy screwed me twice in one move. Both my Fantasy (Peyton / Wayne) and my beloved Steelers to a hit.. Merry Christmas Jets.. They will probably get another gift next week since Cinci has nothing to play for..

[Munboy]

Yup, I tried to cover it all there...it's a pretty complicated situation but I think I have a good handle now on how it all shakes out. Houston has a better record in the common games than we do which hurts us and is why we would be behind them. I never thought it would come down to a situation where, as a Steelers fan, would need to cheer for the Patriots and Bengals to win...unbelievable. Those two teams are our best chance at the playoffs though...Pats need to take care of the Texans and Bengals need to take care of the Jets.

The Broncos don't matter with us as long as the Texans lose...we beat them so we will beat them out in the end if we tie them at the end of the season.

I just hope Cincy and NE don't become content with either the 3rd or 4th seed and bench their starters.....If that happens, and with the Texans and Jets playing for playoffs, the outcome doesn't look good for us.

[mattb47]

I think the chances of the Patriots EVER taking a game off is about zero...I could never see Belicheck having his guys sit out a game and I would say that it does mean something anyway as they are determining 3rd and 4th seed (i.e. who would have to play Indy if they won). I don't know that Cincy has been playing well enough to feel content going into the post-season feeling good about it so I think they'll play everyone next week too...I'm just not sure how confident I am that the "right" Cincy team will show up to play.

I still like our chances though...Sanchez has been streaky at best and is fully capable of turning it over to a solid Cincy secondary and hopefully Cincy will try to control the clock with Benson/LJ and can beat them that way. I could see NE blowing out Houston similarly to how they blew out Jacksonville to be honest...they seem to be trying to send a late season message and just go for broke.

[petedog9]

There is still the chance that Baltimore can lose to Oakland and Kansas City beats Denver as well...

Last year if you recall.. All Tampa Bay needed was a win at home against Oakland and they were in the playoffs. Well after losing 31-24 to Oakland, Tampa was out of the playoffs and Gruden was canned and is now in the booth.. Philly snuck in the back door and made it all the way to the NFC Championship game...

KC and Denver is a division game which means anything can happen... Denver hasnt looked that good lately.. Remember when they were 6-0 and everyone was pimping them??? That seems like a long time ago...

But your right , our easiest path is the Houston / NYJ path...

[mattb47]

Houston losing is the biggest one for us...if they lose then we can get in if either the Jets or the Ravens lose...it really doesn't matter a ton if Denver loses or not because they aren't a huge threat to get in over us...there's really only 1 scenario possible where they get in and we don't if we end up both winning. And that would be if it's a tie between us, them and Houston which would result in Denver in as the #5 and Houston as the #6.