AFC Wildcard Race - ALL Tiebreaks calculated

[mattb47]

Well...just being the way I am, I wanted to know what it would take for my Steelers to make the playoffs and then I decided to go ahead and look at how ALL the different teams still in the running could potentially make it given the different scenarios. I'll try to organize this in an organized fashion but there's a lot of info, so bear with me.

This is for all the people who want to know what's going on like me...

Teams Still in Contention: (in order of where they stand now)
1. New York Jets (8-7)
2. Baltimore (8-7)
3. Denver (8-7)
4. Houston (8-7)
5. Pittsburgh (8-7)
6. Miami (7-8)
7. Jacksonville (7-8)

Full official tiebreak rules that I am following can be found here:
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

I'll do this by team first, starting with the last place and move my way up:

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8)
Remaining game: @ CLE

Can ONLY get IN if:
1) They win AND
2) 4 of the New York, Baltimore, Denver, Houston or Pittsburgh lose

Why:
If any of those 8-7 teams lose, and the Jags win, they would win the tiebreaker based on conference record which would be at 7-5 for them, higher than any other AFC wildcard candidate.

Miami Dolphins (7-8)
Remaining game: vs PIT

Can ONLY get IN if:
1) They win AND
2) Jacksonville loses AND
3) All of New York, Baltimore, and Houston lose

Why:
The only teams that they would lose the tiebreaker with are Jacksonville (Conference Record) and Denver (Strength of Victories). So if all of New York, Baltimore, Houston, and Jacksonville lose, they would tie only the teams they beat out and Denver would get in ahead of them as the #5 seed.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
Remaining game: @ MIA

Can ONLY get IN if:
1) They win AND
2) Houston loses AND
3) Either Baltimore or New York loses

OR

1) They win AND
2) Denver loses
3) Any 2 of Houston, Baltimore or New York loses

Why:
The only team the Steelers win the tiebreak with is Denver because of the head to head victory over them. They lose all tiebreaks with Houston (Common games), Baltimore (Division Record) and New York (Conference Record) and so they need Houston to lose and one of the other two to also lose. The only team Denver would beat out in a 3 way tie with Pittsburgh would be Houston, and so if that happened that the Steelers, Texans, and Broncos were tied, the #5 would go to Denver and the #6 would go to Houston. However, if either the Jets or Ravens are tied with the Steelers and Broncos, both would beat out Denver for the #5 (BAL because of H2H and NYJ because of Common games) and Pittsburgh would then beat out Denver for the #6.

Houston Texans (8-7)
Remaining game: vs NE

Can ONLY get IN if:
1) They win AND
2) 2 of New York, Denver, and Baltimore lose

Why:
They lose every tiebreak except vs. Pittsburgh (Common games) so they need to be tied with no more than 2 other teams in record as long as one of them is Pittsburgh. They need 2 of New York, Denver, and Baltimore to lose as they lose out to all 3 in conference record.

Denver Broncos (8-7)
Remaining game: vs KC

Can ONLY get IN if:
1) They win AND
2) 2 of New York, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh lose

Why:
They only win the tiebreak among the 8-7 teams with Houston and so they need to be tied with no more than 1 of New York, Baltimore, or Pittsburgh to make the playoffs as they lose the tiebreaks to all 3 teams. Can only reach the #5 if New York and Baltimore both lose and Houston wins.

Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Remaining game: @ OAK

Can ONLY get IN if:
1) They win

Why:
One of the most straightforward here...if they win they are in as no worse than the #6 seed. If they lose, they cannot get in as they would lose the tiebreak with the Jets and they would either finish behind the Steelers should they win, or they would lose the tiebreak to the Dolphins (Strength of Victories). They can finish the #5 if they win and New York loses.

New York Jets (8-7)
Remaining game: vs CIN

Can ONLY get IN if:
1) They win

OR

1) They lose AND
2) All of Miami, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, and Jacksonville lose

Why:
In the best position of any team as if they win they are the #5 seed as they win the tiebreaks with all other current 8-7 teams. If they lose, they can only get in if all of the teams except Pittsburgh lose. They would be eliminated by Miami from contention if Miami wins and so they would need them to lose, and all the other teams as well to maintain their tiebreak victories over them.


This is probably one of the more complicated I've ever seen the wildcard race going into the final week.

That being said...how do you guys anticipate these games going and as a result, which teams make the playoffs?
NYJ vs CIN
BAL @ OAK
DEN vs KC
HOU vs NE
PIT @ MIA
JAC @ CLE

[Dawinner127]

It's going to sound like homerism, but... the Jets definitely have the best shot. They are playing a Cincinnati team that has nothing to play for and I am sure they will be resting players.

[mattb47]

I think one thing is that the Bengals haven't been playing particularly well lately which might move them to play their starters to see if they can get back on track before the playoffs. I don't know that they want a game that they barely snuck by a pretty weak Chiefs team to be there last game before the playoffs...you never know though. Every staff has a different outlook on this topic so I guess we'll see what they end up doing.

All in all...it would be pretty weak if the Jets got in because the Colts and Bengals both rested players against them...

[bigh0rt]

It's going to sound like homerism, but... the Jets definitely have the best shot. They are playing a Cincinnati team that has nothing to play for and I am sure they will be resting players.

Shhhhh. Don't say things like this!! Haven't you been a Jet fan long enough to see the writing on the wall? The build up, leading to the crushing, Earth shattering let down? Let us just pray for the next 6 days. Pray that there is mercy in 2009 for us.

[steelerfan513]

This is absolutely awesome matt, thanks a million.

[Dawinner127]

It's going to sound like homerism, but... the Jets definitely have the best shot. They are playing a Cincinnati team that has nothing to play for and I am sure they will be resting players.

Shhhhh. Don't say things like this!! Haven't you been a Jet fan long enough to see the writing on the wall? The build up, leading to the crushing, Earth shattering let down? Let us just pray for the next 6 days. Pray that there is mercy in 2009 for us.

I know, I know. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here, but the smell of the playoffs is making me salivate over here.

[jh2031]

As a Steelers fan, I want the Steelers to get in... but I'm a realist. It's probably not going to happen. I'll be rooting for Houston to make it to the playoffs. They have some great talent and I think can give any team a damn good game.

[jh2031]

It's going to sound like homerism, but... the Jets definitely have the best shot. They are playing a Cincinnati team that has nothing to play for and I am sure they will be resting players.

Shhhhh. Don't say things like this!! Haven't you been a Jet fan long enough to see the writing on the wall? The build up, leading to the crushing, Earth shattering let down? Let us just pray for the next 6 days. Pray that there is mercy in 2009 for us.

I know, I know. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here, but the smell of the playoffs is making me salivate over here.

Just be prepared for a let down. Rookie QB's in the playoffs usually means a quick exit.

Sorry, had to stomp on your hopes a little as a Steelers fan.

[mattb47]

As a Steelers fan, I want the Steelers to get in... but I'm a realist. It's probably not going to happen. I'll be rooting for Houston to make it to the playoffs. They have some great talent and I think can give any team a damn good game.

Houston isn't a real true threat to any of the teams in the playoffs in my honest opinion...their defense isn't good enough to consistently stop anyone, their offense can disappear as quickly as it explodes, and they won't be able to run against a decent defense with the guys they have...all of those things don't combine for a good playoff team right now. I would actually be surprised to see them beat New England this week to be honest...

I think that if the Patriots and Bengals both play their starters this week and don't rest people, that the Steelers will be in the playoffs...now, if that happens is anyone's guess but that's what I'm hoping for. Also can't count out the Raiders (sounds strange to say) against the Ravens...they may not have won a lot of games this year, but the games they did win were against good teams (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Denver) and so anything can happen. I'm not banking on it but stranger things have happened.

[jh2031]

As a Steelers fan, I want the Steelers to get in... but I'm a realist. It's probably not going to happen. I'll be rooting for Houston to make it to the playoffs. They have some great talent and I think can give any team a damn good game.

Houston isn't a real true threat to any of the teams in the playoffs in my honest opinion...their defense isn't good enough to consistently stop anyone, their offense can disappear as quickly as it explodes, and they won't be able to run against a decent defense with the guys they have...all of those things don't combine for a good playoff team right now. I would actually be surprised to see them beat New England this week to be honest...

I think that if the Patriots and Bengals both play their starters this week and don't rest people, that the Steelers will be in the playoffs...now, if that happens is anyone's guess but that's what I'm hoping for. Also can't count out the Raiders (sounds strange to say) against the Ravens...they may not have won a lot of games this year, but the games they did win were against good teams (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Denver) and so anything can happen. I'm not banking on it but stranger things have happened.

Can't really disagree with anything you have said. But, I really doubt Cincinnati and New England play all of their starters for the entire game. The other thing is that the Jets can possibly play the Bengals in the first round and they probably won't show them anything in this matchup. Bengals also know that even though they beat the Steelers twice they don't want to play them again and won't give the Steelers any help. Just too many things going against the Steelers at this point, not to mention they still need to beat the Dolphins which is not a definite. We shall see.