Spygate revisted.

[moochman]

Did you know that during the 2007 season, year of the Spygate on the Chinese calendar, the Patriots scored 30 or more points in 13 games, often rolling over other teams, showing total domination. At the time it was argued that a lot of teams were cheating and/or of how little effect it would have had on the game. Well now we’ve had some time to reflect, not over the evidence-Co-conspirator Roger Goodell destroyed all the evidence he could find, but we can look back on the results. Since the 2007 season, their 16-0 season, the Patriots have scored 30 or more points in only 11 games. In ’07 the scored a whopping 589 points. In ’08 they lost Brady, but this year they only scored 427 points. That’s 162 less points, or 10 points per game!!!
Some of the different could be attributed to Brady’s rust and the loss of their O.C.s, but that is an awful coincidence that their production would drop that much after they were busted for cheating. So now that the evidence strongly suggests an alarming advantage gained by the Patriots during the Spygate era, the only question that remains is whether or not they would have won all or any of their Super Bowls were they not to have cheated so effectively?

[mattb47]

This is going to be one of those things that we never really know what kind of impact it had. There are just too many questions that are there...I mean even before they went nuts that year most people thought they were going to have an absolutely crazy good offense, just maybe not quite as good as they were. And so we don't know how much it helped them overall...although I do think that in an extremely strategic game like the NFL is, any little advantage like that isn't really little at all.

Other questions we can't answer is what their offense would have looked like with Brady instead of Cassel in '08 and then how much of an impact his injury had on him in '09. We don't know how much of their decline is due to loss of personnel, injury, and the loss of coordinators in comparison to the possible loss of advantage in the whole spygate thing. I mean we can try to speculate but no one is ever really going to know outside of maybe some of the Patriots staff involved just how much of an advantage they gained by having it and how much they lost by not.

[Kareighuis]

Can you imagine a 2009 offense with a Randy Moss that didn't lallygag so much?

I'd probably attribute that season to Brady getting actual weapons at WR in Moss and Welker. Moss started playing to his talent level and Welker was a virtual unknown. As much as I've bashed NE for the whole spygate thing, I'd say those two (not the coach, coordinators or Brady) were the reasons for that season.

Now, the lack of a running game and questions in the defense (especially in the secondary) have created a one-dimensional offense.

[u_fig_eater]

Can you imagine a 2009 offense with a Randy Moss that didn't lallygag so much?

I'd probably attribute that season to Brady getting actual weapons at WR in Moss and Welker. Moss started playing to his talent level and Welker was a virtual unknown. As much as I've bashed NE for the whole spygate thing, I'd say those two (not the coach, coordinators or Brady) were the reasons for that season.

Now, the lack of a running game and questions in the defense (especially in the secondary) have created a one-dimensional offense.

I started a whole thread on the Moss controversy...but I'm just going to say that he "lallygagged" his way to the 2nd-best fantasy season of any WR. Also:

He beat his career average for receiving yards / year (1264 > 1205)

He beat his career average for TDs / year (13 > 12.3)

He had better yardage or TD numbers than in 7 of his past 11 seasons.

I've yet to hear a numbers-based argument that he took the year off. I'm listening if anyone wants to try.

[mattb47]

Yea...I don't really buy that he wasn't putting forth a lot of effort...people are just LOOKING for plays that it doesn't look like he's trying I think and maybe he had a game or two where he didn't really show up to play but that doesn't account for an entire season of mediocrity for the Pats offense.

[dream_017]

Other questions we can't answer is what their offense would have looked like with Brady instead of Cassel in '08 and then how much of an impact his injury had on him in '09. We don't know how much of their decline is due to loss of personnel, injury, and the loss of coordinators in comparison to the possible loss of advantage in the whole spygate thing. I mean we can try to speculate but no one is ever really going to know outside of maybe some of the Patriots staff involved just how much of an advantage they gained by having it and how much they lost by not.

I agree with this. 2 years is tough to compare because of the number of personnel changes (coaches and players), not to mention age, injury. Don't forget that the other teams also have 2 years of tape to review and prepare. Then there is also the schedule. Wouldn't you say their division was better this year than 2 years ago:
NYJ - 9-7 vs 4-12
Buf - 6-10 vs 7-9
Mia - 7-9 vs 1-15

They scored 229 points in 2007 vs the division and 130 in 2009 -- that is 6 games of their schedule. Overall those teams total points against went down from 1146 to 952.

[mattUTD20]

The 2004 Colts scored 522 points then scored only 439 in 2005. Do you think they were cheating too? It is impossible to sustain that level of dominance.

[moochman]

I agree with this. 2 years is tough to compare because of the number of personnel changes (coaches and players), not to mention age, injury. Don't forget that the other teams also have 2 years of tape to review and prepare. Then there is also the schedule. Wouldn't you say their division was better this year than 2 years ago:
NYJ - 9-7 vs 4-12
Buf - 6-10 vs 7-9
Mia - 7-9 vs 1-15

They scored 229 points in 2007 vs the division and 130 in 2009 -- that is 6 games of their schedule. Overall those teams total points against went down from 1146 to 952.

I mentioned about the changes in coaching and Brady's recovery issues, but we are talking about 10 pts a game difference. Now, in looking at the numbers you've provided, it suggests that the cheating was more instrumental in the winning. If you were stealing signs or whatever other cheating shenanigans they were up to, wouldn't it make sense that you would use it more, and get better at it, against teams you face more and that you want to beat more? Interdivisional games they scored 16.5 more points in the Spygate year? 16.5 points!?! It just stuns me just how big an effect their cheating appears to have had.
This puts a lot of extra pressure on Brady in the next couple seasons. If he plays like this year than maybe we have to re-think just how much praise we should give him.


I don't think the Colts were caught cheating, Matt. Sure it is impossible to sustain such a level of performance, but when a team in the midst of a season which dwarfed the Colts unsustainabe '04 season is caught in a huge cheating scandal, then declines significantly it makes one question what was the cause of the dominance. In the Colts case it seems to be a great corps of RB and WR talent led by a masterful OC and the best QB of our time. And the Colts may have dropped from that level, but they are still among the top offensive teams year after year.

[bigh0rt]

Did you know that during the 2007 season, year of the Spygate on the Chinese calendar, the Patriots scored 30 or more points in 13 games, often rolling over other teams, showing total domination. At the time it was argued that a lot of teams were cheating and/or of how little effect it would have had on the game. Well now we’ve had some time to reflect, not over the evidence-Co-conspirator Roger Goodell destroyed all the evidence he could find, but we can look back on the results. Since the 2007 season, their 16-0 season, the Patriots have scored 30 or more points in only 11 games. In ’07 the scored a whopping 589 points. In ’08 they lost Brady, but this year they only scored 427 points. That’s 162 less points, or 10 points per game!!!
Some of the different could be attributed to Brady’s rust and the loss of their O.C.s, but that is an awful coincidence that their production would drop that much after they were busted for cheating. So now that the evidence strongly suggests an alarming advantage gained by the Patriots during the Spygate era, the only question that remains is whether or not they would have won all or any of their Super Bowls were they not to have cheated so effectively?

Answer: No.

F the Pats.

[Metroid]

Obviously the Pats decline can be attributed to Gisele Bündchen whom Tom Brady started dating in January of 2007. Coincidence? I think not.