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Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby wetbeaverlover » Mon Apr 12, 2010 12:45 pm

I hate the Jets but I'm taking that bet. How you going to throw with Darell Revis and Antonio Cromartie? Also I'd take the Ravens, I think anquan helps them immensely.
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby Dawinner127 » Mon Apr 12, 2010 10:39 pm

I'm curious to what the 2011 Superbowl odds are going to change for on the Jets with the addition of Holmes.
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby portisfan24 » Tue Apr 13, 2010 4:55 pm

Maybe a slight bump. As we know, the odds fluctuate up and down all the time based on injuries, trades, signings, the draft and so on. Picking a team at this team is a total crapshoot, as you have to take into account offseason activity as much as expected on-field performance.
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby joejlitz » Tue Apr 13, 2010 9:43 pm

Agree that the Ravens would be a good bet, but I thought that last year. Lots of picks for the Iggles, but that was before the McNabb trade. Kolb will lead this offense, but it won't be the offense that keeps the Birds out of the Super Bowl. Eagles need significantly better play at the safety and LB positions this year on D. Oh - and Samuel needs to tackle and buy into the team defense concept instead of always laying in wait for a pick.
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby mattb47 » Wed Apr 14, 2010 9:29 am

wetbeaverlover wrote:I hate the Jets but I'm taking that bet. How you going to throw with Darell Revis and Antonio Cromartie? Also I'd take the Ravens, I think anquan helps them immensely.


Cromartie is exceptionally overrated...he was the #1 CB for the Chargers and QBs STILL picked on him all the time. He's been terrible since his one big season so while he's not a terrible pickup, he's not exactly a great shut down corner by any means.

I think the Jets are going to learn what many many other teams before them have learned year after year...you don't win a championship by bringing in the most new players each off season. The Redskins and Cowboys have done it so many times without a single championship and many others as well and it really should be a sign to these teams that it's not how you build championship teams. There's a reason that the same teams seem to always be at the top and they all seem to build their teams in the same way.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers (12-1) or the Falcons (30-1) come out of the NFC as the champs this next season and they have decent odds there to bet on. Skins with McNabb at 50-1 aren't too bad either...I don't think they'll win it or anything but they're more legit with him and 50-1 is great odds.
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby Dawinner127 » Wed Apr 14, 2010 10:45 am

mattb47 wrote:Cromartie is exceptionally overrated...he was the #1 CB for the Chargers and QBs STILL picked on him all the time. He's been terrible since his one big season so while he's not a terrible pickup, he's not exactly a great shut down corner by any means.

I think the Jets are going to learn what many many other teams before them have learned year after year...you don't win a championship by bringing in the most new players each off season. The Redskins and Cowboys have done it so many times without a single championship and many others as well and it really should be a sign to these teams that it's not how you build championship teams. There's a reason that the same teams seem to always be at the top and they all seem to build their teams in the same way.

Always bashin' and hatin' on the Jets, Matt. Little sour about last year? :-b :-b :-b

I believe, don't quote me on this, Cromartie's best year came when the Chargers defensive coordinator let him play man-to-man, where he excels. Last year with Rivera he was playing a bunch of zone coverage where he was atrocious. There are only a few coaches out there where players will buy into the respective defensive scheme and Sexy Rexy will and can get Cromartie back to his old self while he is sitting in man-to-man coverage on one side with Revis on the other. The only problem is, is that Cromartie is an extreme risk taker and gets burned quite often because always plays for the interception.

Furthermore, bring in the most new players each off season? We've brought in a few players this offseason because we had holes that needed to be filled. We are still going to have the core of the team left from last year. I don't understand what you're saying. Greene is going to start at RB, the offensive line is the same. The quarterback position is still the same. We added one WR. We brought in LT to be a BACKUP and split time with Greene. We filled the cornerback need by bringing in Cromartie. These players who were brought in are accustomed to being starters, not backups or second string players.
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby bazzy_51 » Wed Apr 14, 2010 12:42 pm

I also like GB and the Bears with those odds. Like was said Martz+Cutler could be a nice combo, if they had a receiver or 2 with a bit more value then Bennett and Hester could be The Greatest Show On Turf:2, but should still be very interesting and with Forte back healthy and Martz pass schemes hopefully it will open it up a bit more for Matt this year.

GB I just love Rodgers, a true gamer. With that said if he knocks off the couple brain farts he has a game this team could rise very quickly (i.e. taking the sack or intentional grounding on the last play of the Zona game last year). Damn nice squad in Green Bay, few draft picks could really do that team good.

Just wondering, don't want to sound like a homer, but I like the Phins 45:1, behind the fricken Panthers at 40:1. How does the Marshall signing affect this in yalls eyes? Henne+Marshall+2headed monster in the backfield again, could spell trouble. Few picks for the defense in this years draft and this team could tango...
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby mattb47 » Wed Apr 14, 2010 4:06 pm

Dawinner127 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:Cromartie is exceptionally overrated...he was the #1 CB for the Chargers and QBs STILL picked on him all the time. He's been terrible since his one big season so while he's not a terrible pickup, he's not exactly a great shut down corner by any means.

I think the Jets are going to learn what many many other teams before them have learned year after year...you don't win a championship by bringing in the most new players each off season. The Redskins and Cowboys have done it so many times without a single championship and many others as well and it really should be a sign to these teams that it's not how you build championship teams. There's a reason that the same teams seem to always be at the top and they all seem to build their teams in the same way.

Always bashin' and hatin' on the Jets, Matt. Little sour about last year? :-b :-b :-b

I believe, don't quote me on this, Cromartie's best year came when the Chargers defensive coordinator let him play man-to-man, where he excels. Last year with Rivera he was playing a bunch of zone coverage where he was atrocious. There are only a few coaches out there where players will buy into the respective defensive scheme and Sexy Rexy will and can get Cromartie back to his old self while he is sitting in man-to-man coverage on one side with Revis on the other. The only problem is, is that Cromartie is an extreme risk taker and gets burned quite often because always plays for the interception.

Furthermore, bring in the most new players each off season? We've brought in a few players this offseason because we had holes that needed to be filled. We are still going to have the core of the team left from last year. I don't understand what you're saying. Greene is going to start at RB, the offensive line is the same. The quarterback position is still the same. We added one WR. We brought in LT to be a BACKUP and split time with Greene. We filled the cornerback need by bringing in Cromartie. These players who were brought in are accustomed to being starters, not backups or second string players.


I actually like the Jets a reasonable amount...so I'm definitely not going to bash on them just for the sake of doing so.

I honestly don't pay enough attention to the Chargers style of defense in the secondary to say for sure how much zone vs. man they've played in recent years but I do know that it VERY rarely ever happens that a team really plays a full zone especially with their CBs on a very consistent basis...with the quality of QBs today, it's too easy to find a lot of soft spots in pure zones and most teams tend to still play a lot of man with their CBs even if they go zone underneath with the LBs and Safeties. The plain fact of the matter is that since his big season, he has not only declined, but declined to the point that QBs really actively go after him because they know that they can beat him without much trouble. Could Rex Ryan help him and turn him around? Perhaps...but I wouldn't be overly optimistic about that...there's a reason the Chargers were quite eager to get rid of him.

It's not about the "quantity" of players you bring in, it's the big, bold moves that teams do in the off season which everyone always overvalues. The Jets aren't just bringing in some minor role players who will be able to easily slide in and contribute, these are guys with high profiles and a lot of baggage and history tells us that you put a bunch of those kinds of guys together, some negative things are bound to happen.

Answer me this...what was the last team who made multiple significant moves in the off season and went on to win the Super Bowl? I think you'll have a hard time finding too many at all.

I'm not trying to knock the Jets, I've got a few really good friends who are Jets fans and so I have a soft spot there but I don't believe that you build a championship team by bringing in a bunch of outside guys in free agency and through trades. Look at the teams that have been in the top of the NFL lately: Colts, Patriots, Steelers. The last 7 Super Bowls have had one of those 3 teams in it and ALL of them build their teams almost exclusively through the draft. The Patriots deviated from it a bit lately with Randy Moss as the biggest one but how has that fared for them? Did they win a championship? Nope.

All I'm saying is that you have to temper your expectations because things never really work out in actuality the way they look like they should on paper. On paper, the Jets have improved tremendously...in actuality? We'll have to see now won't we?
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby iamgregg » Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:19 pm

The notion that Cromartie was traded because of poor play is largely a myth. From a pure coverage perspective, 2009 was most likely Cromartie's best season. I think a lot of people thinking he's been garbage lately are going off his 2008 season (which, by the way, he played through with a fractured hip) and a low interception number. He's excellent in man coverage, though currently a bit of a liability in zone, though he showed improvement and started to rekindle hope that he could one day be a shut down corner.

I don't think you'll find that many Charger fans unhappy with Cromartie for his coverage skills. By far the biggest weakness was his seemingly complete unwillingness to make contact with players (Shonn Greene's playoff run was by no means the first time that sort of thing happened). In terms of coverage, Cromartie was actually pretty decent, especially when he as able to play man, though it's true that Ron Rivera likes his zone.

The plain fact of the matter is that since his big season, he has not only declined, but declined to the point that QBs really actively go after him because they know that they can beat him without much trouble. Could Rex Ryan help him and turn him around? Perhaps...but I wouldn't be overly optimistic about that...there's a reason the Chargers were quite eager to get rid of him.


This isn't true on a couple of levels. Firstly, like I mentioned above I think you have 2008 etched into your mind. Erase that. I, personally, can not remember too many times when Cromartie was targeted and abused often. Two big plays that stick out is Week 1 @ Oakland for Murhpy's TD (which was most probably Clinton Hart's fault, who was then cut soon after) and Week 15 vs Cincinatti for OchoCinco's TD (who was probably on a pretty big adrenaline high given this was the game after Chris Henry's death).

The secondary was probably the lone bright spot (bar Strong Safety, though Ellison shows promise) of the defense last year. My lasting memories of the 2009 SD defense are:

  • Poor run defense caused by a below par DLine, which slwy got better as the season wore on
  • Lack of pressure
  • Teams not going after our CBs
  • Emergence of Brandon Siler and Kevin Ellison
  • Contineud improvement of Eric Weddle

The 3rd one is a distinct memory I have. Whether or not that says more about other holes in our D than the quality of our CBs (of which Jammer is the #1 btw, not Cromartie) is arguable, but DVOA stats suggest performance against WRs was about average. If one of our CBs was that bad to get abused on a weekly basis, I would think those stats would be a lot worse. Also consult this chart.

The reasons the Chargers traded Cromartie had little to do with this performance. These were the main factors:

  • Character issues.
  • A former 1st round pick (Antoine Cason), who they are high on and believed was ready to start
  • 2010 was the last year of Cromartie's contract.

Cromartie was a headache for the front office, who was expendable as the depth behind him was perceived as adequate to replace him. Jammer is a very solid and consistant player. Chargers beleived that had 3 talented CBs that could start and did not want to spend money on resigning Cromartie to have one of them sit on the bench or play nickel (for which both Cason and Cromartie are both unsuited for). Chargers simply got value while they could.

Cromartie has deficiencies in his game he needs to improve on, but he's a promising player and far from garbage.
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Re: Odds for winning the 2011 Superbowl

Postby wetbeaverlover » Sat Apr 17, 2010 1:23 pm

Thanks for the insight Matt. As a former corner and defensive back coach I think cromartie is very good. Yes he gets burned and doesn't always make the smartest decisions but he has to learn a little bit from Revis right? My logic for picking the jets is that their biggest competition in getting to the superbowl I believe is san diego and the colts. Both teams pass the ball a lot. And as a former corner no matter how good I was playing, if the DL gave the QB all day to throw it made my job almost impossible. So I think that if the jets can improve their pass rush especially on the side of the ball that they plan on playing cromartie that he will do very well next year.
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