daweasle wrote:Fiction - New England has three solid WR in Moss, Welker and Edelman and no reason to pass off enough reception to either of their upcoming TEs.
Throw on top of that - there are easily 15 TE's in the league this year who should be starters in a 12 team league. Thats means to be "fantasy relevent" Gronkowski or Hernandez or Crumpler will have to do three things:
1. Establish themselves as head and shoulders better than the other two TE's
2. Establish themselves as significatnly better then Edelman or RB options in red zone
3. Be better than 15 other TEs
It's not gonna happen.
F/F: One RB will establish themselves as "the guy" in Washington and be the fulltime starter getting more then 66% of the carries on a weekly basis. (Keep in mind the assortment of RBs in Wash backfield and Shanahans crazy RBBC rotation)
-Time to breakdown Shanahans ways distributing carries as a coach...let's look at him as the HC of the Broncos from 2003-2008:
2003--Clinton Portis-290 carries Quentin Griffin-94 carries Mike Anderson-70 carries Jake Plummer-37 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 59% (290/491 carries)
2004--Reuben Droughns-275 carries Quentin Griffin-85 carries Tatum Bell-75 carries Jake Plummer-62 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 55% (275/497 carries)
2005--Mike Anderson-239 carries Tatum Bell-173 carries Ron Dayne-53 carries---Top Dog Percentage: 51% (239/465 carries)
2006--Tatum Bell-233 carries Mike Bell-157 carries Jake Plummer-36 carries Damien Nash-16 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 52% (233/442 carries)
2007--Travis Henry-167 carries Selvin Young-140 carries Andre Hall-44 carries Jay Cutler-44 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 42% (167/395 carries)
2008--Michael Pittman-76 carries Peyton Hillis-68 carries Selvin Young-61 carries Jay Cutler-57 carries Tatum Bell-44 carries Andre Hall-35 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 22% (76/341 carries)
This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season. Even when he is given beauts like Clinton Portis at age 22 in 2003 where he rushed for 1500+ yards and over 5.5 yards per carry he only gave him 59% of the rushes.
It also shows, call me crazy but the stats support me, that he has been runnning the ball less and less throughout his career and relying more on the passsing game.
consider that-even if this year he had AMAZING talent, like Portis @ 22 years old, or Droughns at 26, or Tatum Bell at 24 and 25...he doesn't use them to the 66% you asked. EVER.
Now you have to conisder his situation as the HC of Washington now and the mess of a backfield he has there:
Larry Johnson age-30
Clinton Portis age-28
Willie Parker age-29
Ryan Torrain age-24
Even if one those guys can average 6 yards per carry and rush for 1500+ yards in a season if given enough carries, Shannahan won't give em those carries. he never has, and never will.