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2010 Fact/Fiction - give it a try

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Re: 2010 Fact/Fiction - give it a try

Postby daweasle » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:59 am

Fiction - New England has three solid WR in Moss, Welker and Edelman and no reason to pass off enough reception to either of their upcoming TEs.

Throw on top of that - there are easily 15 TE's in the league this year who should be starters in a 12 team league. Thats means to be "fantasy relevent" Gronkowski or Hernandez or Crumpler will have to do three things:
1. Establish themselves as head and shoulders better than the other two TE's
2. Establish themselves as significatnly better then Edelman or RB options in red zone
3. Be better than 15 other TEs

It's not gonna happen.

F/F: One RB will establish themselves as "the guy" in Washington and be the fulltime starter getting more then 66% of the carries on a weekly basis. (Keep in mind the assortment of RBs in Wash backfield and Shanahans crazy RBBC rotation)
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Re: 2010 Fact/Fiction - give it a try

Postby bostonsoxandy » Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:13 pm

daweasle wrote:Fiction - New England has three solid WR in Moss, Welker and Edelman and no reason to pass off enough reception to either of their upcoming TEs.

Throw on top of that - there are easily 15 TE's in the league this year who should be starters in a 12 team league. Thats means to be "fantasy relevent" Gronkowski or Hernandez or Crumpler will have to do three things:
1. Establish themselves as head and shoulders better than the other two TE's
2. Establish themselves as significatnly better then Edelman or RB options in red zone
3. Be better than 15 other TEs

It's not gonna happen.

F/F: One RB will establish themselves as "the guy" in Washington and be the fulltime starter getting more then 66% of the carries on a weekly basis. (Keep in mind the assortment of RBs in Wash backfield and Shanahans crazy RBBC rotation)


Pure Fiction-Time to breakdown Shanahans ways distributing carries as a coach...let's look at him as the HC of the Broncos from 2003-2008:

2003--Clinton Portis-290 carries Quentin Griffin-94 carries Mike Anderson-70 carries Jake Plummer-37 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 59% (290/491 carries)
2004--Reuben Droughns-275 carries Quentin Griffin-85 carries Tatum Bell-75 carries Jake Plummer-62 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 55% (275/497 carries)
2005--Mike Anderson-239 carries Tatum Bell-173 carries Ron Dayne-53 carries---Top Dog Percentage: 51% (239/465 carries)
2006--Tatum Bell-233 carries Mike Bell-157 carries Jake Plummer-36 carries Damien Nash-16 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 52% (233/442 carries)
2007--Travis Henry-167 carries Selvin Young-140 carries Andre Hall-44 carries Jay Cutler-44 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 42% (167/395 carries)
2008--Michael Pittman-76 carries Peyton Hillis-68 carries Selvin Young-61 carries Jay Cutler-57 carries Tatum Bell-44 carries Andre Hall-35 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 22% (76/341 carries)

This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season. Even when he is given beauts like Clinton Portis at age 22 in 2003 where he rushed for 1500+ yards and over 5.5 yards per carry he only gave him 59% of the rushes.
It also shows, call me crazy but the stats support me, that he has been runnning the ball less and less throughout his career and relying more on the passsing game.
consider that-even if this year he had AMAZING talent, like Portis @ 22 years old, or Droughns at 26, or Tatum Bell at 24 and 25...he doesn't use them to the 66% you asked. EVER.

Now you have to conisder his situation as the HC of Washington now and the mess of a backfield he has there:
Larry Johnson age-30
Clinton Portis age-28
Willie Parker age-29
Ryan Torrain age-24
Even if one those guys can average 6 yards per carry and rush for 1500+ yards in a season if given enough carries, Shannahan won't give em those carries. he never has, and never will.
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Re: 2010 Fact/Fiction - give it a try

Postby daweasle » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:16 pm

OK first of all he did a great job breaking down the RB situation in WASH. I agree 110%

Secondly, he messed up by not posting a question. so I will post the next F/F

F/F - Vincent Jackson will play at least 8 games for some team in the NFL this season.
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Re: 2010 Fact/Fiction - give it a try

Postby justinj312 » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:38 am

Fact - everybody eventually signs (including VJax), players don't want to miss out on eligibility requirements.

F/F - D Brown outproduces J Addai this year.
thx

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Re: 2010 Fact/Fiction - give it a try

Postby bostonsoxandy » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:38 am

justinj312 wrote:Fact - everybody eventually signs (including VJax), players don't want to miss out on eligibility requirements.

F/F - D Brown outproduces J Addai this year.


Fiction-Addai is there number 1 back. Clear-cut. Last year the carry distribution was 219 carries to Addai to Brown's 79.
After you account that Brown was injured for 5 games (and did get a load of garbage carries in week 16) you can adjust the numbers to somewhere around Addai-200 Brown-85...

Donald Brown struggles very much when having to pass-block while Addai has perfected the art since he has lived his entire football career with the pass-first Colts.
Even if Donald Brown learns how to pass-block, the loyalty the Colts have to their players will result in Addai finishing with more carries than Donald Brown, and therefore outproducing him
Tough question though since not a lot of stats to determine an answer to...

F/F--Bernard Berrian finishes as a top-20 wide receiver (Keep in mind: Harvin's migraine woes and Sidney Rice's hip surgery-out around 8 weeks)
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