I know its early, but it seems to me the top of the draftboard is going to be littered with running backs with only one good 1st-round-caliber season under their belts. (Eg. Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson, Shonn Greene, Jamal Charles, etc.) You get the picture. Dont get me wrong, Im not saying Im definitely going to be avoiding these guys, it's just that they seem to be too risky for first-rounders. I will have absolutely no problem picking Brees in the first, Moss/AJ in the second, VJackson/Fitzgerald/Marshall/CJohnson in the third, and waiting all the way until the 4th round for my first RB. Im already looking at Steve Slaton and Matt Forte, who last year were extremely similar to the guys above - breakout seasons in '08 and high picks the following fantasy year. They have shown the potential to be fantastic. What do you guys think?
I might make it seem like Im a hypocrite because I like one-year wonders Slaton and Forte but not Rice or the others. That is very untrue. I'll gladly take Cedric Benson in the fourth round, but he's not worth a 1st round pick. I want consistent players with my first pick, and although Mendenhall may prove to be rock-solid, he hasn't proven it yet. I will be more prone to take high-risk, high-reward picks later in the 4th and 5th rounds.