Definately Ryan Matthews. Chargers' HC Norv Turner went on the record to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that he "expects" Matthews to have 250 carries and 40 receptions next year.
Here's a link;http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... 0-catches/
If you are drafting first overall in a Dynasty league or rookie-only draft and DON'T take Matthews you are really taking a chance of looking stupid.
BTW, I am promoting Houston's Ben Tate as the #2 RB out of the rookies. I think Spiller will share duties with Jackson, (plus the Bills stink). And Best may have to contend with a rehabilitated Kevin Smith in a RBBC at some point. (Plus, the Lions stink).
Tate, on the other hand, goes to a team with a great passing atack (but only a decent offensive line). HC Gary Kubiak's job is on the line this year, and clearly he has little faith in his existing backfield. Steve Slaton had fumble-itis last year, then went on IR in December with nerve damage to his neck. Arian Foster is unproven, Chris Brown is ancient and injury-prone, and Ryan Moats is a career backup. Tate has a great chance to start, and with his team investing a high pick (2nd round) on him, Kubiak will give Tate every chance to succeed. Tate is big at 5'10" 235 lbs and runs a 4.35 40-yd dash.
Foster might be a slight risk to him, but not as much as Smith is to Best or Jackson is to Spiller. With goal-line work, I can see double-digit TD's for Tate. He may lose 3rd downs to Slaton and/or Foster, but on a juggernaut offense like Houston's, I'll take 1st-and 2nd down duty for Tate in a heartbeat over what's left in the rookie crop after Matthews.