Who is the #1 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

[The Lung]

Who is the #1 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts? You are voting on who will have the best fantasy football production in the NFL over the next 4 or 5 years with the team on which the player was just drafted, NOT who will have the best year in 2010. Assume standard scoring (1 pt. per 10 yards rushing / receiving, and no PPR) Also please assume that you have a balanced roster and don't have a great specific need for a QB, WR, etc.

Feel free to discuss the pros and cons of these players - this could be helpful for some and generate some good discussion. If you'd like to vote for a player NOT on this list, then please vote "other" and make a post to discuss the player. This will serve as a write-in vote for that player.

[biju]

As we mentioned in the chat Lung, there's little doubt in my mind that Ryan Mathews will be the top selection in most drafts. In redraft leagues he'll probably get high consideration in the late 2nd or early 3rd even though he won't be a 3 down back to start.

[haloswin2002]

I voted Matthews. I agree with the top 4 though.

1. Matthews (situation only, talent I have him 4th)
2. Spiller (most talent)
3. Dez (2nd best situation, 2nd talent just behind spiller)
4. Best (worst situation, tied with dez on talent)

[mattb47]

I think right now it's tough to make a real reasonable argument for anyone but Matthews as the #1 pick at this point...he's in the best position to get the most touches both now and in the future and is on the best offense which means the most scoring opportunities.

I probably like Best and Spiller pretty closely next actually...I think Best is every bit as talented as Spiller and he's in more of a position to get immediate carries being in Detroit with Smith trying to come back from his knee injury. Spiller has to compete with Jackson and until they deal him (if they do), Lynch and the Buffalo offense is worse than the Detroit offense overall.

Others to keep an eye on as well are Montario Hardesty who was drafted in Cleveland and Ben Tate who was drafted by the Texans...both are in situations where they can earn solid playing time pretty early and could be solid fantasy picks in rookie drafts.

I'd probably rank the top guys like this though:

Matthews

Best
Spiller

Bryant

[Kareighuis]

I can't see any strong argument for anyone other than Matthews going #1.

[bungle613]

I can't see any strong argument for anyone other than Matthews going #1.

11-0-0-0 confirms that. I think this has been the worst FF rookie draft in many years. Matthews may be marked the RB1 but at least for this year Sproles will take carries and it is a pass heavy offense to start with. Spiller goes to probably one of the worst 5 teams he could have possibly been drafted by in FF terms. Best is intriguing although I like Smith more than most I think he has a golden opportunity to get a good amount of touches this year.

Bryant may be elite at the NFL level but Atsin IS elite and a favourite of Romo with Witten ahead of him as well. Makes me alot happier I dealt most of my dynasty picks for this year.

[da bears]

Agree with the majority here although I don't agree at all with the poster who said talent wise he's last. He tore up some real good rushing defenses while they were game planning for him. I love his potential in SD. Solid runner only worry for me would be injury.

As far as the others on fantasy potential, I completely agree with poster about Bryant being an elite talent but will be the 3rd option on that roster but certainly do bump Romo up your draft boards a bit. Best is in a solid position to get a lot of touches so I would put him 2nd on this list for fantasy purposes given the offensive talent on Det(get an o-line Det or don't nfc north is hard enough for my bears). Spiller pick was just confusing to me they didn't seem to know how to handle their rb's in Buf last season and that team had so many holes I just don't get it. Spiller could have a decent impact but I just don't think he could have landed in a worse position.

[moochman]

Had I realized everyone was voting Mathews, I would have gone for Spiller. He has the explosiveness to be a cut above the rest, the Bills do run a lot and run pretty well normally. Mathews just falls into a garden of Eden for RBs in SD.

[The Lung]

I think this has been the worst FF rookie draft in many years.

I don't agree with this.

Every year there are all kinds of prospects, elite, good, or poor, who end up going to bad situations. But every year there are just as many who go to good situations. Sure, Spiller and Best didn't fall into optimum situations, and Gerhart, Dixon and Dwyer's considerable talents also look to go wasted. There's TEBC in both New England and Baltimore. But as mentioned, Ryan Mathews fell into the Garden of Eden. Both Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty have prime opportunities. Dez Bryant went to just about the best possible landing spot, and I like where Golden Tate, Arrelious Benn, Mardy Gilyard, & Brandon Lafell went too.

Last year, guys who I thought were pretty talented like Javon Ringer, Andre Brown, and Glen Coffee fell into some bad situations. But then you had guys like who Moreno, Crabtree, McCoy, and Shonn Greene who landed in prime opportunities.

Every year it's going to be basically the same, and unless you have a year where a considerable number of talented underclassmen come out, I don't think that one year is all that different from another.

[Kareighuis]

Spiller and Best didn't fall into optimum situations, and Gerhart, Dixon and Dwyer's considerable talents also look to go wasted. There's TEBC in both New England and Baltimore. But as mentioned, Ryan Mathews fell into the Garden of Eden. Both Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty have prime opportunities. Dez Bryant went to just about the best possible landing spot, and I like where Golden Tate, Arrelious Benn, Mardy Gilyard, & Brandon Lafell went too.

I gotta agree with alot of the players in good situations you list here- but Gilyard. How is he not just another fast, sideline WR like all the other ones in StL? While Spags came from Philly (which opens the possibility they could use the same WCO hybrid the Eagles did to take advantage of McNabb's arm), Bradford's arm strength limits all WRs to YAC threats. But, Gilyard seems more like a Holmes type.