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Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

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Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Poll ended at Sat May 01, 2010 9:24 pm

RB C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
5
26%
WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
2
11%
RB Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions
12
63%
WR Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
0
No votes
Other (please explain)
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 19

Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby mattb47 » Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:14 pm

How is that a reach? Dez was pretty much universally thought to be the best WR in this draft talent wise and the only thing that dropped him was some character issues and even then he went right after Thomas and really shouldn't have.

Also, I don't think that what college other players of a same position went to before him really matters at all in almost all cases...Calvin Johnson or any other GT WR having success means absolutely nothing for Thomas. It's a pointless argument to make that it has any impact on his future success and the defenses he faced doesn't matter when his team ran almost all the time and Thomas pretty much saw single coverage all the time and just had to run 2 different routes. I think Thomas is a very raw WR and will take a while to get acclimated to the NFL game...there have been many talented athletes who have had trouble becoming great WRs and I think this is yet another one.

Bryant is a better WR prospect talent wise than Michael Crabtree was last year and one of the better ones in many years...I think you've got things mixed around a bit here.
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby bazzy_51 » Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:34 pm

So what are you predicting out of Bryant? I just don't see how Bryant out produces Thomas even this year. You have Miles who came from no where to be the dominant #1 last year, Roy Williams will still be the WR2 in Dallas no matter how hard he sucks it up, Patrick Crayton in my eyes will still steal balls from Bryant, not to mention Witten and even Bennett who Dallas has said wants to incorporate more into the offense.

In Denver what are we looking at? Royal hit the sophmore wall, but should bounce back the WR1, then you have a gagle of WR in Gaffney, Stokley, Lloyd, Thomas and Decker. Do you honestly say that Thomas doesn't have the upper hand in that mix? Heck I think he does, and even think that Decker has a better shot at looks then the rest. Then you look at the TE situation, there is no way Graham is even close to Bennett in terms of balls coming his way in that offense let alone Witten. In Daniel's best year he caught 38 balls in NE.

Overall this is just much more opportunity for Thomas to produce in Denver then Bryant in Dallas. I would rather a WR in a 3WR set over a WR in a 2WR/2TE set even if he is raw anyways. Both teams are well balanced when it comes to run/pass so thats not as much of a factor. So again I guess I am confussed in this situation, but not with the fact that clearly Thomas is in the better situation, more so confussed at the fact that you are saying Thomas will basically be a fantasy non-factor?
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby mattb47 » Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:26 pm

I think you're being a bit delusional if you think that the biggest waste of space on the field (Roy Williams) is going to get the nod and start ahead of Bryant. They didn't draft Bryant to sit the bench...he's going to start very soon alongside Austin and they drafted him to get Williams out of the starting lineup because he was one of the worst acquisitions this team has had in a very long time.

Bryant has quite a few things going for him I think:
1. He is a better receiver than Thomas - He is more polished, and one of the better WR prospects to come around in a good while. He's a better prospect than Crabtree was last year and if there weren't character issues probably would have been a top 10 caliber pick.

2. He has a better QB and overall passing game than Thomas - Romo is quite simply a far better QB than whoever Denver ends up having this season at that position. Especially when you think about the idea that Thomas is a vertical threat (with a terribly weak armed QB in Kyle Orton throwing the ball), I don't see how the Broncos are even built to get the ball downfield passing wise. They are a quick route and shorter passing team, that requires more polished route running to create separation and that's not what Thomas can do yet.

3. He's got a legit #1 opposite him to ensure single coverage - Miles Austin is far better than Eddie Royal and Royal is not a true #1 WR...he's a solid #2 guy but he's not the best WR on a team caliber player. Austin is coming off a great season and will see most every coverage pushed in his direction, leaving Bryant to face a lot of single coverage this year and in the future.

What exactly is so much better about Thomas' situation? He's got an inferior QB, a team that would prefer to run the ball and play defense and have a short passing game when they do pass...and Thomas is not an underneath route runner like Marshall could be, he's a vertical threat without a QB who can get the ball downfield. Now how does that translate into a better situation? Now if Thomas was on a team like San Diego or something who throws the ball downfield a lot and has the QB to do it, that would be different...but none of the QBs in Denver is really known for their arm strength at all and can really take advantage of his skills.

I think that in the case of RBs you have a little more leeway to take advantage of some situations...but with WRs I think you have to lean towards the more talented guy for rookies unless there is just a huge huge advantage situation wise which there isn't in this case.
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:57 pm

I"ll take best... Spiller won't see that many reps this year, while Best will. And while the Bills offense has a few decent players, they have nothing at QB or OT, which are probably the 2 most important positions to fill.....
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby Kareighuis » Fri Apr 30, 2010 1:02 am

Redraft leagues focus on situation first, talent second- Benson, anyone? Dynasty is about picking talent. Spiller is the pick. While he has little offensive support, teams can be turned around quickly- remember Miami's turnaround from their recent 1-15 season.

Best seems to be in the better situation, but he still is in Detroit. Kevin Smith's recovery status and his impact on Best hasn't yet been determined.

Bryant is a WR. I don't trust Dallas' WR scouting after making a major move for Roy Williams. Dallas may have to play Williams alot to see if he proves worthy of the investment. Austin and Witten will dominate Romo's focus and the running game will be a major force in the offense with a 3-headed monster there.
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby bazzy_51 » Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:04 am

Kareighuis wrote:I don't trust Dallas' WR scouting after making a major move for Roy Williams. Dallas may have to play Williams alot to see if he proves worthy of the investment. Austin and Witten will dominate Romo's focus and the running game will be a major force in the offense with a 3-headed monster there.


This is pretty much the point I was trying to make, Kareighuis just spelled it out better and more bluntly.

Yes, matt, I understand what your saying and definitley do agree with you to a point. I'm not trying to say that Bryant is junk, or hes not a fantasy threat, or better yet that he may or may not be the better of the 2 down the road, but the situtation isn't ideal for a rookie WR coming in year one. They will want Bryant to step up and be that WR2 over Williams, but after the f-up Dallas make in the big deal to get Williams they are not going to just bench the guy before they give him one more shot. Williams will still be the WR opposite Austin week 1 for the simple fact that Dallas doesn't want to admit that they screwed up. Instead they will give Roy as much leash as possible before sending him out. And Kareighuis said it perfect, Miles and Witten have the eye of Romo because they can be depended upon by Romo.

I do agree that Denver will run quite a bit, but I would rather Denver's running game if I had a WR in Colorado, then if I had one in Dallas not named Witten or Austin. Denver has Moreno, yes, and Buck, who odds are will go down with some kind of injury, then you look at Dallas they have 3 RB that could potentially start as a RB1 on almost any NFL squad. They are not going to just yank the ball from Barber/Felix/Choice just so that a rookie WR can see the ball. Again yes I do agree Orton is not the ideal QB for Thomas, but the 3-headed RB monster, 2TE sets and a mistaked WR acquisition is not the ideal situation for Bryant either. Thats not even getting into the character flaws of Bryant that will absolutely shine brighter then the northern star if he doesn't produce like the fans want him to. To me Thomas has a couple big negatives compared to Bryant, and we have put them out there: QB comparission and route running. But Bryant has smaller, but a bigger amount of negatives: characters in Dallas, RB situations, WR situation, TE stealing balls and biggest of all his performance will be MUCH more under the microscope in the big D then Thomas's will be in Denver.
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby mattb47 » Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:22 am

We're going to have to agree to disagree here...I don't find your arguments of trying to attribute past decisions with different players to the current ones as being even remotely approaching relevancy. Them messing up on Roy Williams has NOTHING to do with Dez Bryant, his talent level, or his future playing time except that it's a statement that they realize Roy Williams is never going to become the WR they tried to trade for. Nothing said in Dallas or shown lately gives me any reason to think they will give him any more chances to be a terrible WR...I mean they nearly just gave up on him last year without even a reasonable replacement and so now that they have one, I don't see him getting on the field all that much. Dallas drafting Bryant is a statement that they realize they screwed up with the Williams trade and need to move on...plain and simple.

I think that it is a MUCH larger negative in Denver having QBs who are the exact opposite of the ideal QB for Thomas along with the fact that he has virtually zero experience running any sort of variety with his routes than the possible negatives for Bryant in Dallas. I think that with the things Thomas has going against him, he's going to be hard pressed to realistically produce in any fantasy relevant way for the first 2 YEARS, much less be the best fantasy WR of this draft this season. Dallas has proven time and again that it will against all logic abandon their running game to throw the ball around the field despite having a great trio of RBs...it may not make sense but they continue to do it. When it comes down to it for me, having a vertical deep threat who hasn't proven he can even run good routes against college players with a QB who can't throw the ball downfield is a HUGE negative...bigger than anything working against Bryant in Dallas.

Either way, all of these arguments on both sides support what I said before that neither of these players break my top 5 on overall fantasy players. I wouldn't take either with a top 5 pick this year in rookie drafts unless I just quite simply had zero possible WRs who could perform for me and then I'd take a chance on Bryant performing far earlier than Thomas.
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby biju » Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:39 am

bazzy_51 wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:I don't trust Dallas' WR scouting after making a major move for Roy Williams. Dallas may have to play Williams alot to see if he proves worthy of the investment. Austin and Witten will dominate Romo's focus and the running game will be a major force in the offense with a 3-headed monster there.


This is pretty much the point I was trying to make, Kareighuis just spelled it out better and more bluntly.


Funny, when I was looking back on Dallas I was thinking they were actually rather good at picking WR talent as a whole. Some of their recent WRs who have shown some promise went undrafted: Miles Austin, Sam Hurd, and Kevin Ogletree. Patrick Crayton was a 7th round pick. Let's not also forget recent history in that they signed TO when he was still great and let him go when he seemingly had less gas in the tank. They also have some pretty solid pass catching TEs and RBs. It seems to me they know how to evaluate hands.

The Roy Williams trade was an outlier in their evaluation, and while I'm not defending them for that trade I'm willing to bet that this was more of a Jerry Jones move than the coaching staff and scouts.
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby bazzy_51 » Fri Apr 30, 2010 11:01 am

I'll agree to disagree for sure.

One thing, yes I know Orton isn't even considered in what the top 20 QBs, but I think you need to lay off a bit. He doesn't have tremendous arm strength, but saying that he basically (in other words) shouldn't even be allowed to suit up and play on Sunday is bogus. This is a guy who has year after year upgraded his completion percentage and is a QB who manages games at times much better then Romo. Second if you look at DT's 3 years at G-Tech look at his averages per catch. Years 1 and 2 he averaged 15.9 and 16.1 per catch. Your telling me that A. Orton can't throw 15 yards and B. that Thomas can only run deep routes? A lot of those 2 averages from Thomas, and especially in his 3rd year were added to with YAC.

Just something I found with Orton comparred to Romo, for last year alone:
1st, 2nd and 3rd down combined throws of 8-10 yards completion %'s: Orton- 63.9% Romo- 64.6%
1st, 2nd and 3rd down combined throws of 11+ yards completion %'s: Orton- 60% Romo- 66.8%

But I will agree to disagree, because unfortunatley I don't see either one of us ever taking the same side as the other. You can say what you want about Thomas, but there is a reason why even with foot surgery that he was taken ahead of Bryant...
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Re: Who is the #2 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts?

Postby mattb47 » Fri Apr 30, 2010 11:36 am

Where did I say that he shouldn't be allowed to suit up and play on Sunday? I just said he's an absolutely terrible style of QB for Thomas to thrive with...and those numbers are pretty skewed when you consider just how often he actually throws the ball downfield and that he had Brandon Marshall there to catch short passes and make big plays out of them. Without that playmaking ability from Marshall last season, I bet those completion percentages and overall big plays would drop tremendously. I bet Orton's completion percentages on balls he actually had to pass 20+ yards downfield was pretty mediocre at best.

You act like averages means that he runs a lot of 15 and 16 yard routes...they are AVERAGES because he ran deep routes (streaks) and short routes (comebacks) and nothing in between and they AVERAGED out to a medium number. I fail to see what you're trying to say...it's not really up for debate that he didn't run routes in college...it's a fact and it's working against him.

Yes...there's a reason that with the foot injury he was taken ahead of Bryant....but it has MUCH less to do with football than it does with character issues...remember, this is the team that just dealt with a problem WR in Marshall so they went with the guy who had the "safer" character.

I'm sorry man, but you keep bringing up points that really don't mean what you're trying to make it mean and then argue them like they are some sort of conclusive proof. Thomas is a RAW WR with minimal to no experience at actual route running in an offense that isn't currently capable of taking advantage of his strengths...I just don't see the big upside there.
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