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Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Stelly » Mon May 03, 2010 10:01 am

Nice list, Kensat, thanks for sharing! ;-D

I like Ben Tate and where he landed. I really think/hope he could end up flying under the radar.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Mon May 10, 2010 12:55 am

moochman wrote:Nice work, Kensat. I think Rookie RB success after the first handful of upper tier players is almost more a product of their environment than measurables, especially when it comes to 40 times. Gerhart's not enough speed 40 time is better than the decent speed 40 of Dixon, and a tick off of Starks. While the kid may have looked like a FB running, he did do something Best could not do-produce in big games. Sometimes there are backs that are football players, and could be that Gerhart falls into that category. Not saying I like his chances better than Best's or many of the other backs, but that you may have been a bit harsh in your evaluation of this guy. He will play for a team in need of a back to give APF a breather and is very good at running the ball. He bears keeping an eye on.


Situation is an important factor when discussing rookie RB rankings, but in the end I believe talent wins through. Situation may add tremendous value in the short term, but situation is not the factor that is going to make a RB pan out. Guys like Marion Barber and Ray Rice are the perfect example of talent winning through, while guys like Kevin Smith, Tatum Bell, and Julius Jones are the classic examples of the short term high note.

My rankings are very heavily weighted to the talent level of the individual. I normally do these rankings before the draft takes place, but even after the draft I found that my rankings didn't really move all that much. The guys I liked at the top stayed at the top, and the guys in the middle stayed in the middle, and the guys I didn't like, I still don't like.

I take a long term view and believe that running stlye and talent is the overriding factor in a lot of situations. Gerhart I rank lowly simply because I don't think he will translate to the NFL. He plays more like an Alstott to me more than anything else, and fantasy relevant "FB" prospects over the past two decades you can count on one hand. There is no place in the NFL for a Alstott today. Sure, maybe I'm wrong and this guy can become a Brandon Jacobs or a Michael Turner down the line. Maybe he is that a bigger body style RB with an extra dimension, but I find that highly unlikely. Not a believer here. More likely this guy sits behind Peterson, doesn't do anything for three seasons, and is forgotten.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Mon May 10, 2010 12:57 am

bungle613 wrote:Good work again Kensat. Can't say I agree with all of it but at this point, it is opinions. I am glad to see Hardesty down so far. I am not sold on him either although for some reason he seems to have been anointed to a RB1(a) with Harrison.

Quick question... Blount would be off your list? And from what I have read McCluster should be a WR in the NFL.


Blount has good talent, but I don't think he is going to get his shot in the NFL. Not worth drafting guys like Blount with such massive black marks on them, guy is similar to Maurice Clarett in that respect. Might as well grab him off a waiver in a season if you like him. To me, picking this guy is like drafting Barry Sanders after he retired, its a pipe dream at this point.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Mon May 10, 2010 1:05 am

mattb47 wrote:I'm glad someone agrees with me on the quality of talent that Jahvid Best has...I don't know if I'd place him purely at the top but he's definitely further up there than people seem to want to give him credit for. The guy is unbelievable and I think Detroit is going to be very happy they ended up with him.

I disagree with you a good deal on Gerhart...that guy is just a football player and he's got excellent speed for a back his size and running style and I think that he will be a solid NFL back at the very least. You will not want to be in charge of trying to tackle Minnesota RBs next season...

I don't think Hardesty is the most talented back out there but I think you still have him a little low...he's got solid skills although he's not really great at any one thing and he's going to be given an opportunity in Cleveland to win some carries there as they clearly don't view Harrison as an every down type of player. Apparently they liked him a lot there and so you know he'll have his chances.

Good list though...it's obvious you put time into it and that is always greatly appreciated whether I agree with all of it or not.


Obviously I'm not a believer in either Gerhart or Hardesty. I think Hardesty is easily the most overrated RB we've seen in the past couple of years. Gerhart could have challenged him for that title if he didn't end up a rookie RB fantasy wasteland behind the consensus #1 guy.

Both of these guys just don't have NFL talent to me. I like to think of myself as a guy who can watch the tape of a player and determine if that guy has true skills or if that guy is just outplaying local competition. Both of these guys for me were players who succeeded on plays in college that will be shut down in the pros. Both of these guys look sloppy running the ball, they have below average playing speed in the NFL, they run big when everybody in the NFL is going to be bigger than them, they aren't nifty running the ball, neither play has any special talent outside of running the ball at a subpar level. Nothing in either of these players screams success for me, and in fact I think both of these players scream mediocre talent.

Stats mean nothing and playing big in big games means nothing. Combine and pro day results may sway my opinion on some players. But ultimately my own evaluation of the guy and whether or not I think that his game will translate against NFL defenses means everything in these rankings.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Mon May 10, 2010 1:17 am

TheDiplomats wrote:I don't agree with your assessment of Hardesty at all. Clumsy runner? Maybe we aren't watching the same guy. The guy is incredible when it comes to planting his feet and changing direction. He also has a pretty nasty spin move to boot. He churned out 1300 yards behind a patchwork TEN OLine with bum knees in the SEC. He may lack top flight speed, but he is a very capable runner and receiver out of the backfield. I think talent wise, he is only behind Best and Spiller and is on par with Mathews and Tate. He will probably end up with 150-200+ carries this year so we will see if he turns out to be a good one or not. My gut tells me he will.

Also, the reason Starks was graded so poorly is because his pad level is WAY to high when he runs. If he learns to run with a lower pad level, then he could be a good one. Otherwise he'll just be out of the league in 2 years.

Good list all in all though. I agree with most of your assessments, particularly with Dwyer and McKnight.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJJiHPqy8xE

:05 - bobbles the ball on a swing route. Is that a drop or an interception in the NFL?

:15 - puts his head down when making a cut. This is a sign that this guy that likes to initiate contact. Also is running in the open field with extremely high pad level.

:25 - surrounded by players, this play is shut down in the NFL. Not only that, but guy looks downright slow from the 20 on in. Severe lack of acceleration and looks like below average NFL speed to me.

25 Seconds into a youtube highlight clip and I can already tell you that this guys hands are not that great, he runs high and tries to play too big, and the guy has limited burst, acceleration, and or top speed in the open field, and he achieved at least part of his numbers against inferior talent. Continuing..

:40 - Runs through a monster hole (does this guy play for the 2003 Chiefs?) Hardesty gets tackled by the first second level defender he runs into, this after trying to juke 3 separate times and slowing himself to a virtual stop. Really this highlight tells it all right here. Four plays is really all I need to see on this guy to let me know that he is not a player. I've looked at a lot more than 4 plays on the tape and saw him in live game action a few times, bottom line this guy never impressed me and I think he will outright fail in the NFL.


PS 1:40-1:50 is just downright ugly. That is not an NFL RB right there.
Last edited by Kensat30 on Mon May 10, 2010 1:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Mon May 10, 2010 1:19 am

mattb47 wrote:I feel like you're pretty off base here...Gerhart actually has very good speed for how big he is and what kind of running style he has. He ran a 4.53 which is pretty good considering that he's known much more for his power than his speed....


If a slow player dedicates himself to training and runs a faster than expected 40 times, the guy is still slow. 40 times should be used as confirmation more than anything, they don't change a players talents.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby mattb47 » Mon May 10, 2010 1:34 am

Kensat30 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I feel like you're pretty off base here...Gerhart actually has very good speed for how big he is and what kind of running style he has. He ran a 4.53 which is pretty good considering that he's known much more for his power than his speed....


If a slow player dedicates himself to training and runs a faster than expected 40 times, the guy is still slow. 40 times should be used as confirmation more than anything, they don't change a players talents.


Absolutely ridiculous...I'm having trouble thinking where to start here. First of all, you cannot fake speed...either you're fast enough to run the time you ran, or you're not. Sure you can train to improve your time, you still cannot run faster than the speed you're capable...ignoring all the evidence to the contrary and still calling him slow is just pure ignorance.

Second of all, I have never before now heard of someone using dedication to training as a negative...the guy worked hard to get his 40 time better and that means he's slow and is a negative? Seriously? C'mon man, you can do better than that.

This is obviously another guy that you simply don't like and will find any reason (reasonable or not) to dislike him and argue that he's a terrible player...it's not the first time it's happened and the first tell tale sign is when you start using more and more ridiculous things to try to make a point that isn't there.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Mon May 10, 2010 1:39 am

mattb47 wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I feel like you're pretty off base here...Gerhart actually has very good speed for how big he is and what kind of running style he has. He ran a 4.53 which is pretty good considering that he's known much more for his power than his speed....


If a slow player dedicates himself to training and runs a faster than expected 40 times, the guy is still slow. 40 times should be used as confirmation more than anything, they don't change a players talents.


Absolutely ridiculous...I'm having trouble thinking where to start here. First of all, you cannot fake speed...either you're fast enough to run the time you ran, or you're not. Sure you can train to improve your time, you still cannot run faster than the speed you're capable...ignoring all the evidence to the contrary and still calling him slow is just pure ignorance.

Second of all, I have never before now heard of someone using dedication to training as a negative...the guy worked hard to get his 40 time better and that means he's slow and is a negative? Seriously? C'mon man, you can do better than that.

This is obviously another guy that you simply don't like and will find any reason (reasonable or not) to dislike him and argue that he's a terrible player...it's not the first time it's happened and the first tell tale sign is when you start using more and more ridiculous things to try to make a point that isn't there.


There is a huge difference between 40 speed and game-speed though. A lot of your 40 time comes from the start you get off the blocks (or out of your stance), which is nothing like running on a football field. If Gerhart ran a 4.63, would you say he's any slower? and regardless, that's just straight-line speed, which is only really applicable when you're running straight ahead and someone's trying to catch you from behind.....

But it is a positive thing that he trained to improve his 40 time.....
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby mattb47 » Mon May 10, 2010 1:43 am

Yes...there is a difference between game speed and 40 speed but I didn't see a slow, cumbersome running back when I watched him in games either and his 40 time reflected that notion for me. If you wanted to see a slower guy then I'm sure you could find times when that was the case but I think the bulk of his work and his 40 time as a confirmation were that he was by no means a "slow white RB" like so many people seem to see him as.

The guy is a player and I think he's going to be one of the more surprising RBs from this draft class overall.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Metroid » Mon May 10, 2010 11:14 am

I can't believe you're just compared Blount to Maurice Clarett, that is completely laughable. :-b

Blount made one mistake, albeit a big one, in college that people are judging the entirety of his character on. He lost his cool and decked a guy who was in his face prodding him. Obviously I don't condone his actions but it's not as if he has a lengthy track record of similar behavior. Or even a track record of any negative behavior. Ever since "the punch" happened people have been labeling Blount as a troubled person with a history of troubling behavior. They're quick to point out that he was in fact suspended from the Ducks prior to "the punch." However, what they fail to recognize is that he was suspended for not fulfilling team obligations, the obligations in question were missing classes and poor grades, (believe it or not football players aren't always the best students). He also missed a couple workouts which put him further in the dog house with coach Bellotti. None of which he missed any game time for other than one quarter during the season. He improved his class attendance and grades, did not miss anymore workouts and mended his relationship with his coach. Even after "the punch" he continued to go to class, continued to attend workouts, and earned his way back on the field.

Hardly comparable to Clarett who berated a coach on the sidelines during a game, publicly criticized OSU brass for not paying for personal flights, was involved in a serious academic scandal, was suspended for filing false police reports, plead guilty to obstruction of justice, was dismissed from Ohio State and ballooned to 250 plus pounds, sued to enter the NFL draft early, and missed two full years of not playing football. Both Clarett and Blount were suspended from their college teams but that's where the comparison ends.

All that said, I don't know if Blount will be successful in the NFL but he is in a good situation to compete. He has the size and speed, excellent vision, bounces plays with ease, and is very elusive for a big back. His on field knocks are he's not a very good pass catcher and does not have the break away speed that you need in the NFL. I'm hopeful he will be successful.
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