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Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby LS2throwed » Tue May 11, 2010 12:44 am

I really don't think Spiller is that far away form Best. Actually Spiller is almost the same player except better, he's stronger, a better frame, less injury concerns, runs inside and outside, it's just his situations that makes him ranked a bit lower. Detroit's offense is really beginning to turn the corner and become very explosive, but Spiller is really a better overall player then Best IMO.


Now I'm on board with Best being an elite talent I have thought that all along, there isn't much seperating the two considering how far apart they were drafted, but Spiller is truly the better talent, and if were talking dynasty here no way would I shy away from Spiller because the situation is crap right now.


Ben Tate I'm not really excited about, I feel like he's going to be a waste of a pick that early in dynasty drafts. He wasn't a better college RB then Arian Foster was, and he's more workout warrior then anything...I'm not expecting Foster to get pushed to the side and Tate to just pick up 20 carries a week, I don't think it's that cut and dry. Besides I don't see much of a difference with him, and RB's that were drafted in the 2nd rounds of rookie drafts, he seems like he's going to be way overdrafted.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Tue May 11, 2010 1:19 am

mattb47 wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I feel like you're pretty off base here...Gerhart actually has very good speed for how big he is and what kind of running style he has. He ran a 4.53 which is pretty good considering that he's known much more for his power than his speed....


If a slow player dedicates himself to training and runs a faster than expected 40 times, the guy is still slow. 40 times should be used as confirmation more than anything, they don't change a players talents.


Absolutely ridiculous...I'm having trouble thinking where to start here. First of all, you cannot fake speed...either you're fast enough to run the time you ran, or you're not. Sure you can train to improve your time, you still cannot run faster than the speed you're capable...ignoring all the evidence to the contrary and still calling him slow is just pure ignorance.

Second of all, I have never before now heard of someone using dedication to training as a negative...the guy worked hard to get his 40 time better and that means he's slow and is a negative? Seriously? C'mon man, you can do better than that.

This is obviously another guy that you simply don't like and will find any reason (reasonable or not) to dislike him and argue that he's a terrible player...it's not the first time it's happened and the first tell tale sign is when you start using more and more ridiculous things to try to make a point that isn't there.


You can easily fake speed at the NFL combine or your pro day. If you hire a trainer who works with you for months training on 5 or 6 specific drills you will improve in those specific drills. Maybe a guy drops 10 pounds below his playing weight to shave off a tenth. Maybe a guy improves his "track stance" and his increase take off speed shaves another tenth. Maybe a guy get so used to running 40 yards in a straight line 20-30x a day that he builds up the muscles in his body specifically for that exercise. Suddenly a guy with slow game speed manages a decently impressive 4.5. Is that guy fast? No. Sure he trained hard, but that guy is training for the most important day of his life. HE IS STILL NOT FAST.

Watch the game tape, ignore the numbers. Show me two guys with identical 40 times and show me the two guys on game tape. I guarantee you it will be very clear which guy is faster if you have any eye for talent evaluation.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Tue May 11, 2010 1:27 am

LS2throwed wrote:I really don't think Spiller is that far away form Best. Actually Spiller is almost the same player except better, he's stronger, a better frame, less injury concerns, runs inside and outside, it's just his situations that makes him ranked a bit lower. Detroit's offense is really beginning to turn the corner and become very explosive, but Spiller is really a better overall player then Best IMO.


Now I'm on board with Best being an elite talent I have thought that all along, there isn't much seperating the two considering how far apart they were drafted, but Spiller is truly the better talent, and if were talking dynasty here no way would I shy away from Spiller because the situation is crap right now.


Ben Tate I'm not really excited about, I feel like he's going to be a waste of a pick that early in dynasty drafts. He wasn't a better college RB then Arian Foster was, and he's more workout warrior then anything...I'm not expecting Foster to get pushed to the side and Tate to just pick up 20 carries a week, I don't think it's that cut and dry. Besides I don't see much of a difference with him, and RB's that were drafted in the 2nd rounds of rookie drafts, he seems like he's going to be way overdrafted.



The only thing Spiller does better than Best is his pure speed IMO. Best is pretty fast for the NFL, Spiller is a little bit faster. Don't get me wrong, even a small speed advantage is significant in the NFL, but I think Spiller is somewhat flawed as a RB. Guy is not a subpar hybrid guy like Reggie Bush, but then again he's not a complete package like Marshall Faulk either. I think Best can be that complete package, guy is fast enough to be explosive and he has that all around talent level.

As far as Tate goes, I think the guy is light years more talented than Foster. Foster never impressed me in college and I don't really think he will get anywhere in the NFL either. NFL front office people agree, and Houston specifically, because Foster wasn't even drafted if I remember correctly while Ben Tate was taken in the 2nd round of the draft. Don't sleep on this Tate guy, sure he will go early in drafts because of the perceived situational benefits, but this guy has the goods to back up that pick.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Free Bagel » Tue May 11, 2010 9:15 am

I'd be interested in hearing more of what you saw in Ben Tate that you liked. Did you see him at all before the '09 season and see a big step forward that year? I ask because I saw very little of Tate in 2009, but I saw a lot of him before that and came away completely unimpressed. I thought he was completely overrated, and by completely overrated I mean to say that I thought he didn't even deserve the "average RB" label he had at the time. He was awful. Did he make big improvements in '09?

Really, the paragraph you wrote for Tate is the one I would have used for Hardesty, and vice versa.

Kensat30 wrote:PS 1:40-1:50 is just downright ugly. That is not an NFL RB right there.


I'll assume you're talking about the first "cut" here. Not every cut has to be on a dime, and it's silly to do so when there are no defenders around you. Even Chris Johnson made "cuts" like that when he was out in the open field three dozen times last year.

Interesting that you bring up that section of the clip though, since in that 40 second span or so the majority of those guys that he was running through and making fall over with his cuts were drafted in the first 3 rounds of this year's draft.

There are a dozen runs in that video you posted that I found more impressive than ANY of the runs I could find in the only Ben Tate 2009 highlight video.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby LS2throwed » Tue May 11, 2010 9:51 am

Tate is nothing more then a workout warrior RB, reminds me of Andre Brown last year who the Giants picked up. He's got measurables to work with, but not a better pure Rb then Hardesty to me, and I would be careful taking Tate too early this year. I just don't see Foster getting brushed aside.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby TheDiplomats » Tue May 11, 2010 11:26 am

Kensat30 wrote:
TheDiplomats wrote:I don't agree with your assessment of Hardesty at all. Clumsy runner? Maybe we aren't watching the same guy. The guy is incredible when it comes to planting his feet and changing direction. He also has a pretty nasty spin move to boot. He churned out 1300 yards behind a patchwork TEN OLine with bum knees in the SEC. He may lack top flight speed, but he is a very capable runner and receiver out of the backfield. I think talent wise, he is only behind Best and Spiller and is on par with Mathews and Tate. He will probably end up with 150-200+ carries this year so we will see if he turns out to be a good one or not. My gut tells me he will.

Also, the reason Starks was graded so poorly is because his pad level is WAY to high when he runs. If he learns to run with a lower pad level, then he could be a good one. Otherwise he'll just be out of the league in 2 years.

Good list all in all though. I agree with most of your assessments, particularly with Dwyer and McKnight.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJJiHPqy8xE

:05 - bobbles the ball on a swing route. Is that a drop or an interception in the NFL?

:15 - puts his head down when making a cut. This is a sign that this guy that likes to initiate contact. Also is running in the open field with extremely high pad level.

:25 - surrounded by players, this play is shut down in the NFL. Not only that, but guy looks downright slow from the 20 on in. Severe lack of acceleration and looks like below average NFL speed to me.

25 Seconds into a youtube highlight clip and I can already tell you that this guys hands are not that great, he runs high and tries to play too big, and the guy has limited burst, acceleration, and or top speed in the open field, and he achieved at least part of his numbers against inferior talent. Continuing..

:40 - Runs through a monster hole (does this guy play for the 2003 Chiefs?) Hardesty gets tackled by the first second level defender he runs into, this after trying to juke 3 separate times and slowing himself to a virtual stop. Really this highlight tells it all right here. Four plays is really all I need to see on this guy to let me know that he is not a player. I've looked at a lot more than 4 plays on the tape and saw him in live game action a few times, bottom line this guy never impressed me and I think he will outright fail in the NFL.


PS 1:40-1:50 is just downright ugly. That is not an NFL RB right there.

You are seeing what you want to see, and that is that Hardesty is not an NFL caliber RB. Let us reassess all the parts of the clips you pointed out:
:05 - Very impressive catch down the sideline. Even great pass catching RBs like Westbrook might bobble that one.

:15 - This is after he caught a slant pass. Again, this demonstrates his excellent pass catching ability and he has to stay upright while making the catch. He did run a bit high afterwards, but that is just one play.

:25 - Perfectly caught screen pass and then juked an Auburn defender out of his shoes on a spin move. Auburn's D this year may have been awful, but they are still an SEC defense and managed to beat TN in that game. The rest of his numbers came against one of the toughest schedules in all of CFB. TN did not have a cakewalk schedule at all.

:40 - What do you expect? He was surrounded by LBs and a Safety was directly in front of him. Adrian Peterson could not have made it past those guys in that particular play. As for having a monster hole, there were very few of them this year for TN because their OLine was AWFUL.

1:40-1:50 - Taking what is given to him by his OLine. This is a sign of a RB with good vision, not a bad one.

From all the clips I've seen in that video, it looks to me like Hardesty is a great pass catching RB who has great vision, great cutting ability, and good balance. Lacks long elite long speed. He reminds me a bit of Knowshon Moreno from last year.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby mattb47 » Tue May 11, 2010 11:56 am

As per usual...it seems to be rather pointless to argue with you Kensat as you will defend your points however faulty they might be until the very end. I think you're completely wrong on both Gerhart and Hardesty and any and all points you've tried to use to support your stances have been really poor overall. Sometimes people just don't like guys, it happens, I do it too...but just not liking a guy doesn't mean you can basically call it a fact and throw in some research of you watching these guys and act like it's conclusive proof. You simply ignore what you don't like and way overemphasize the things you want to...we'll just have to see on those two guys but I fully expect both to prove you completely wrong.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Tue May 11, 2010 11:46 pm

LS2throwed wrote:Tate is nothing more then a workout warrior RB, reminds me of Andre Brown last year who the Giants picked up. He's got measurables to work with, but not a better pure Rb then Hardesty to me, and I would be careful taking Tate too early this year. I just don't see Foster getting brushed aside.


Maybe Tate just fits the mold of the type of player I think will do well in the NFL, I had Andre Brown rated highly last year as well.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Tue May 11, 2010 11:51 pm

Free Bagel wrote:I'd be interested in hearing more of what you saw in Ben Tate that you liked. Did you see him at all before the '09 season and see a big step forward that year? I ask because I saw very little of Tate in 2009, but I saw a lot of him before that and came away completely unimpressed. I thought he was completely overrated, and by completely overrated I mean to say that I thought he didn't even deserve the "average RB" label he had at the time. He was awful. Did he make big improvements in '09?

Really, the paragraph you wrote for Tate is the one I would have used for Hardesty, and vice versa.

Kensat30 wrote:PS 1:40-1:50 is just downright ugly. That is not an NFL RB right there.


I'll assume you're talking about the first "cut" here. Not every cut has to be on a dime, and it's silly to do so when there are no defenders around you. Even Chris Johnson made "cuts" like that when he was out in the open field three dozen times last year.


The guy doesn't even "cut" here, all his runs are rounded. When he tries to cut, he stops. Hardesty is not fast enough to break up field, so the guy ends up running horizontally and gets nowhere. This is the type of guy who is not going to get to the corner in the NFL, he's not going to make it through a hole fast enough to get big yardage, and he's not talented enough to make something out of nothing on his own. In other words, the guy is 3 yards and a cloud of dust waiting to happen. Chris Johnson doesn't have to cut as sharp on any given play (even though I think he cuts very well), guy just needs to straighten up and run and he's already five yards downfield.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Tue May 11, 2010 11:54 pm

Diplomats the one thing that I think we have the biggest disconnect on, is that I believe that college production doesn't matter. Wins, losses, stats, surrounding talent, etc. just don't matter. Is the guy fast enough, does he looks like a player, does he move well, does he have instincts, that's what I look for. I don't care about Auburn and/or Tennessee.
Last edited by Kensat30 on Wed May 12, 2010 12:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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