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Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Wed May 12, 2010 12:16 am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfBkonPBFGY

:10 - first thing that jumps off the tape is Tate's acceleration and power. You can tell there are RPMS behind those legs as he gets up the field and literally picks up a defender with his stiff arm. That's not arm strength right there, that's momentum. That's a guy who can do some damage regardless of who he is playing again. That is a guy who can compete at an NFL level with physical talent.

:20 - two quick cuts and up the field. Excellent planting, very little loss of speed, good vision.

:30 - excellent patience to follow blocks, decisiveness to get through the hole when it opens, speed to break the big play. The subtle cuts Tate make in this play really stand out.

At other points in this video I see moments where Tate is looking pretty slow, running a little bit too recklessly, and getting a little sloppy with his cuts and decision making. I like the guy, but at the same time he is not an elite prospect.

Tate is still light years ahead of Hardesty for me though. Hardesty looks slow and runs recklessly in the majority of his plays. I see rounded cuts, bad decisions, and a guy who looks good against inferior talent with a gimmick spin move. Personally, I think Hardesty's is gonna get shellacked in the NFL if he tries that crap, but maybe that's just me. The plays where Hardesty looks fast and decisiveness are a rarity when I watch him and I really don't believe the tackle breaking ability. IF you are not fast in the NFL, I don't care who you are, you are going to have a difficult time breaking tackles. Even a complete monster like Brandon Jacobs loses more than he wins in the NFL.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Wed May 12, 2010 1:00 am

mattb47 wrote:I disagree with you a good deal on Gerhart...that guy is just a football player and he's got excellent speed for a back his size and running style and I think that he will be a solid NFL back at the very least. You will not want to be in charge of trying to tackle Minnesota RBs next season...


Notice how you put a qualifier on Gerhart's positive here? That little catch "for a back his size" is a sentiment I share with you, but I look at it from an entirely different perspective. The guy doesn't have unusual size like Brandon Jacobs, so for me this statement just translates to "too slow".


I don't think Hardesty is the most talented back out there but I think you still have him a little low...he's got solid skills although he's not really great at any one thing and he's going to be given an opportunity in Cleveland to win some carries there as they clearly don't view Harrison as an every down type of player. Apparently they liked him a lot there and so you know he'll have his chances.



I think people will disagree with me some vehemently with me on Hardesty for the most part because they are overvaluing his situation. What happened to Harrison? What about the move they made for Hillis? I rate James Davis coming out last year similar to where I rank Hardesty this year. Sure the guy was a second round pick, but when it comes time to start the season guy will have to win his job on a bad team. And over a period of 2,3, 4 years etc. the situation today or even for the entire 2010 season means little. Rankings change quickly, but picking the right rookie RB is a pick that is going to last a long time. It's fine to chase short term production if you are a buy low/sell high type guy, but people tend to hang onto rookie RBs that they draft.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby mattb47 » Wed May 12, 2010 1:44 am

Problem is Kensat that everything is proportional to size...so speed for how big you are matters a great deal. So he's not as big as Brandon Jacobs, how has that fared so far for Jacobs in his career? He moves well for a back built more on power and a good motor than breakaway speed but he can still hit the holes when he needs to and move the chains. He's never going to be a huge big play guy...or even an Adrian Peterson with deadly power and speed...but what he does he does well and every team in this league needs a guy who can get them the tough yards, run between the tackles, and run hard. He'll break off some solid runs every once in a while because he's got the speed to do so, but he's the kind of back who will always get you something and those guys have value both in the actual NFL and fantasy wise. Don't be surprised to see him get the goal line work in Minnesota this year with ADP's huge fumbling problem lingering over his head...teams don't want to give the ball to a guy down at the goal line when he can't hang onto it and that gives Gerhart an immediate fantasy boost.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby moochman » Sat May 15, 2010 10:09 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Diplomats the one thing that I think we have the biggest disconnect on, is that I believe that college production doesn't matter. Wins, losses, stats, surrounding talent, etc. just don't matter. Is the guy fast enough, does he looks like a player, does he move well, does he have instincts, that's what I look for. I don't care about Auburn and/or Tennessee.



I sense a disconnect, too, Kensat. I don't understand how you would think a college player could be fast enough, look like a player(I guess that means a player you like), does move well, does have instincts yet doesn't translate those gifts into production wouldn't matter to you. It's odd, except for being a very, very productive player, it sounds like you are describing Toby Gerhart. Fast enough, moving well enough while showing great instincts vs the better teams he played against (something you can not say about Best) So I guess that just leaves that he doesn't "look like a player". I'll give you that, he certainly doesn't fit the mold of an NFL RB and that will make it harder to evaluate the how well his set of skills may translate to the NFL. I think he has a decent shot to be a viable NFL RB, oddly enough, because he just looks like a player. Oh, and that he was very productive in college. I am sure I misunderstand what you meant, because I have a hard time thinking of a good NFL RB who wasn't productive in college.
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby LS2throwed » Sun May 16, 2010 6:33 pm

Kensat30 wrote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfBkonPBFGY

:10 - first thing that jumps off the tape is Tate's acceleration and power. You can tell there are RPMS behind those legs as he gets up the field and literally picks up a defender with his stiff arm. That's not arm strength right there, that's momentum. That's a guy who can do some damage regardless of who he is playing again. That is a guy who can compete at an NFL level with physical talent.

:20 - two quick cuts and up the field. Excellent planting, very little loss of speed, good vision.

:30 - excellent patience to follow blocks, decisiveness to get through the hole when it opens, speed to break the big play. The subtle cuts Tate make in this play really stand out.

At other points in this video I see moments where Tate is looking pretty slow, running a little bit too recklessly, and getting a little sloppy with his cuts and decision making. I like the guy, but at the same time he is not an elite prospect.

Tate is still light years ahead of Hardesty for me though. Hardesty looks slow and runs recklessly in the majority of his plays. I see rounded cuts, bad decisions, and a guy who looks good against inferior talent with a gimmick spin move. Personally, I think Hardesty's is gonna get shellacked in the NFL if he tries that crap, but maybe that's just me. The plays where Hardesty looks fast and decisiveness are a rarity when I watch him and I really don't believe the tackle breaking ability. IF you are not fast in the NFL, I don't care who you are, you are going to have a difficult time breaking tackles. Even a complete monster like Brandon Jacobs loses more than he wins in the NFL.




The part where you say Hardesty makes rounded cuts and bad decisions, it literally the EXACT opposite of what his film truly shows, polar opposites at that, I have no clue how you can come to those decisions after watching his tape.


When you watch the tape of Tate all you mainly see is a guy who has a hole and hits it pretty fast. He does look more explosive then Hardesty, but you rarely see vision, he hits the hole the same place it's supposed to be and runs as fast as he can to the corner each time, nothing different.



Hardesty just looks like a 'football player', he makes very sharp cuts, the fact that you said his cuts are rounded astound me...He also does not run to the same spot the hole should be each time, he finds the hole which may end up different each time. Tate is going to run one speed as fast as he can if the hole is to the outside, Hardesty would make one sharp cut and cut that run back to the inside if there was more green. He has a better feel for the RB position where as Tate is the better athlete and looks like he's just full throttle to one spot each time.



Besides, I know youtube highlights are really all we can go on, but I wouldn't put too much stock into them one way or another. Shonn Greene looked like crap even on highlights, he was slow as hell on tape and at the combine, rarely made any impressive moves, and looked FAR worse then Hardesty even in your terms yet which rookie RB would you prefer right now in a dynasty over him from the class last year?? There were alot of guys faster, more impressive in youtube highlights also so I just wouldn't go overboard with breaking this stuff down.


I know everyone has an opinion, that's just mine on what I saw from them on tape, but you make Hardesty alot worse and his film is much better then you give credit for, I mean it almost sounds like you have a vendetta against him. Gimmick spin move? The one that every time he used he left a dude 8 yards away out of his cleats? Yea some gimmick...
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Re: Kensat's 2010 rookie RB rankings

Postby Free Bagel » Wed May 19, 2010 8:37 am

Kensat30 wrote:The guy doesn't even "cut" here


That was kind of my point though. It wasn't a rounded cut, because he wasn't cutting at all. He was in the open field with no defenders nearby, why in the world would he "cut" in that scenario? Every change of direction by a football player doesn't have to be a "cut" and when there's no one around you sometimes it's faster just to run in a certain direction. No one would have tried to make a hard jukie cut there. There was no reason to.

His other 50 billion good cuts in that video just go on to prove that it was a choice he made there (and the right one), not some lack of an ability to make a sharp cut when there was absolutely no need to.

Kensat30 wrote:the guy is 3 yards and a cloud of dust waiting to happen.


Interesting, as that's what I see with Tate. He has a nice burst, but he can't do anything other than run straight ahead. If there's not a big hole, he's the kind of guy who just runs into the back of his offensive linemen. He could succeed on the Jets where there IS a huge hole every time, but the guy completely lacks an ability to create. He'll gain yards when the offensive line allows it, and won't when they don't. Same as any average running back could do.

Kensat30 wrote:a guy who looks good against inferior talent


Yeah, like Florida, who had the #1 defense in the nation and 5 defensive players taken in the first 3 rounds of the draft.

Your arguments really come together at 1:52 in that video where one of his "slow, rounded" cuts is sharp enough to make two of those "inferior talents" that had their names called early in the NFL draft this year fall over. :-b
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