Ah, so you think, "Thomas is in line to be an immediate producer" but you think "he may not pay off as great dividends right now." I agree with that- Tate will outproduce him initially, but Thomas might produce more over the span of their careers. Do you take the certainty (but lower ceiling) or the likely higher ceiling but higher chance of busting? That's what it comes to for me.
He is in line to be an immediate producer because he'll start on a team lacking WR options, but he won't pay off great dividends though like a RB would....He may be a WR3/4 option now, but great dividends won't kick in until year 2 or 3, but he'll still produce right away...I'm going to take the higher ceiling player in general period, RB's fizzle out so fast it's much easier to get a WR to be elite for 10 years then any RB.
Look how many years LJ was worth a damn, Slaton, I mean the list goes on and on...Not only that but I don't see much difference between Tate and say James Davis last year who was the next best thing, or an Andre Brown for the Giants, and neither have done much except Tate cost way more to land.
Given the flux at Denver's QB spot (and how their skills don't match the routes Thomas can run) and the turnover I wouldn't be surprised to see in a few years at the head-coaching position, Denver screams too much instability for me. Calvin Johnson might be the most talented young WR, but the turmoil in Detroit (front office, coaching, QB) and lack of offensive wingmen isn't making fans of his fantasy owners.
This is where I have to completely disagree. Not many people wouldn't take Calvin Johnson in a dynasty, and why should any owners be upset? He produced with crap around him the first 2 seasons, he had a down year last year, but look at his 2nd season. He's been worth starting since drafted and probably has 10 years of WR1/2 status and big time points. What RB would you trade him for? Whoever you do trade him for won't last nearly as long.
Also situation is one thing I mostly ignore in dynasties. Just like how you said how bad Calvin's situation in Detroit was, or when he was drafted, now look. It hasn't been that long, yet they have an up and coming QB who is arguably more talented then any QB playing now, an electric RB, two TE's to spread the field, a WR opposite Calvin, an improving O-line, all of a sudden it's an offense people are thinking will turn the corner and it was just crap.
I draft for talent in dynasty because I'm keeping these guys, their teams will get better soon enough, but if a guy lacks the same talent I'm not taking him first. Denver may be shaky now but if Thomas is a monster who cares? WR's can produce on shitty teams very easily, especially a guy like him who doesn't need to rely on a QB. He's not a speedy WR who needs a QB to throw it deep, he'll catch short routes and turn them into something and any QB can make a QB like that good.
Anquan Boldin had his best season as a rookie without Fitz and a crappy team with Jeff Blake and one of the McNowns throwing to him because he make a living with YAC on short routes, same as Thomas.
Also back to Calvin, even if you are an owner and frustrated, who would you rather have out of the class over him sans Peterson? Because Peterson was likely taken #1 overall anyway, so what other RB would you have taken if not Calvin?