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2010 Sleepers/Buy-Lows

Postby Kareighuis » Wed May 19, 2010 9:13 am

Any one have thoughts on sleepers for the coming season? Some I've seen mentioned-

Name-Brand
Matt Ryan- he struggled last year. he's currently the 10th QB taken on FootballCalculator
Santana Moss- With McNabb in town, someone will be catching those DJax passes. Moss is the most veteran WR.
Darren McFadden- with Fargas cut, the way is now open to the lead job in Oaktown. He might not have between-the-tackles pop, but he was very effective last year as a receiver out of the backfield, and the receiving options are unproven.
Steve Smith (Car)- People talk him down (15th on the Calc) but he finished the season 18th. After Delhomme gave way to Matt Moore for the final 4 games of the fantasy season, Smith had 3 straight double-digit games, compared to 4 in the previous 11 combined.
Brandon Jacobs- he struggled last year with injuries; some consider him a great bounceback candidate

Mid-Tier
Hakeem Nicks- he's gonna be an all-star(?!); showed game-breaking skills once he came back from his early-season injury
Shonn Greene- one guy actually had him ranked #5 overall, others have him in the top 12; lead dog of power-heavy team with great oline
Nate Burleson- finally joins a team where the other WR is better than him. Stafford's arm, det's improved o-line, and Best all are often cited.
Michael Bush- Russell was cut (replaced by Jason Campbell), suggesting draft status won't determine who plays anymore.
Chad Henne- progressed last season once Pennington went down, he gets Marshall as his #1 target

Deeper Prospects
Devin Aromashodu- Cutler last year constantly talked about his and DA's rhythm in the TC and practice; only tall WR in a Martz offense; stepped up in-game last year and showed he can sky for Cutler's bombs.
Brady Quinn- Goes to Den, where only Orton blocks him from the starting spot. Struggled in Cle, but would be running same offense he was successful in at Notre Dame
Tashard Choice- With the constantly-injured Jones rumored to be the starter and Barber apparently hitting the wall career-wise last season, the path to 60-80% of his team's carries just got easier.
Devin Thomas/Malcolm Kelly- A gaping hole opposite Moss, McNabb in town are frequently cited as reasons they'll bust out this year. Kelly talked about a month ago that Shanahan told him he'd be a focal point of the offense
Last edited by Kareighuis on Fri May 28, 2010 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby bungle613 » Wed May 19, 2010 8:59 pm

QB- Palmer, Garrard

RB- Jacobs, Bradshaw, Ricky W and Michael Bush

WR - Garcon, Royal, Chambers


Looking over a ranking list these are the guys I would target.
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby Kareighuis » Wed May 19, 2010 11:03 pm

bungle613 wrote:QB- Palmer, Garrard

RB- Jacobs, Bradshaw, Ricky W and Michael Bush

WR - Garcon, Royal, Chambers

Looking over a ranking list these are the guys I would target.


I've never seen anyone argue that Palmer, Garrard, Royal or Chambers are 2010 sleepers/buy-lows. Care to make a case for any of them?
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby bungle613 » Wed May 19, 2010 11:42 pm

Kareighuis wrote:
bungle613 wrote:QB- Palmer, Garrard

RB- Jacobs, Bradshaw, Ricky W and Michael Bush

WR - Garcon, Royal, Chambers

Looking over a ranking list these are the guys I would target.


I've never seen anyone argue that Palmer, Garrard, Royal or Chambers are 2010 sleepers/buy-lows. Care to make a case for any of them?


Sure... just looked at 3 sites rankings and they do not have Palmer or Garrard as top 15 QB's. Palmer highest ranking was 16 while Garrard was 21. Vince Young and Michael Vick were ranked higher on at least one site. Needless to say, I will pass on the Mannings, Brees, Rodgers 1st and 2nd rounders and take my QB in the later mid rounds and I believe I will be very happy with the value that a Palmer or Garrard produces this year. I am predicting both of them to outperform there ADP by miles. Seriously people, how are they ranking Jason Campbell ahead of these two???? Current ADP Palmer - 9.11 and Garrard 14.10

Royal can play. I've seen him, he just needs the ball and I am hopeful that everyones friend Josh realizes it this year. I don't see him in the doghouse and really can't figure out why he took such a step back in 2009. Royal can likely be had in the very late rounds of your draft and is an excellent candidate to be at the least a WR3 filler and my guess is just a plain WR3. Current ADP 9.12

Chambers gets no love. #34 overall last year on a horrendous team. Charles' emergence and the added draft talent should help KC as a team. HE may not be in line for top 20 results but he will outplay his ADP and in a big way. Current ADP 14.01
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby Kareighuis » Thu May 20, 2010 1:27 am

bungle613 wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:
bungle613 wrote:QB- Palmer, Garrard

RB- Jacobs, Bradshaw, Ricky W and Michael Bush

WR - Garcon, Royal, Chambers

Looking over a ranking list these are the guys I would target.


I've never seen anyone argue that Palmer, Garrard, Royal or Chambers are 2010 sleepers/buy-lows. Care to make a case for any of them?


Sure... just looked at 3 sites rankings and they do not have Palmer or Garrard as top 15 QB's. Palmer highest ranking was 16 while Garrard was 21. Vince Young and Michael Vick were ranked higher on at least one site. Needless to say, I will pass on the Mannings, Brees, Rodgers 1st and 2nd rounders and take my QB in the later mid rounds and I believe I will be very happy with the value that a Palmer or Garrard produces this year. I am predicting both of them to outperform there ADP by miles. Seriously people, how are they ranking Jason Campbell ahead of these two???? Current ADP Palmer - 9.11 and Garrard 14.10

Royal can play. I've seen him, he just needs the ball and I am hopeful that everyones friend Josh realizes it this year. I don't see him in the doghouse and really can't figure out why he took such a step back in 2009. Royal can likely be had in the very late rounds of your draft and is an excellent candidate to be at the least a WR3 filler and my guess is just a plain WR3. Current ADP 9.12

Chambers gets no love. #34 overall last year on a horrendous team. Charles' emergence and the added draft talent should help KC as a team. HE may not be in line for top 20 results but he will outplay his ADP and in a big way. Current ADP 14.01


I can't possibly agree that Palmer or Garrard are desirable. I agree with the idea that there's enough QB depth that you don't need to take a QB early, I just think those 2 aren't worth targeting.

I can't predict Royal or the Broncos. I didn't anticipate he would play so well his 1st year, nor did I expect his play would drop of so severely. I can't predict how McDaniels will play players- he certainly doesn't base it on production. Otherwise, Marshall and Scheffler wouldn't have been marginalized and then traded, and Royal wouldn't have been an afterthought last year.

Chambers undoubtedly played well once he joined KC. In my eyes, his problems include he still has Cassel throwing to him and McCluster is an explosive weapon. I'd be worried that Chambers' production once he joined the Chiefs was an emotional "they can't cut me!" response to San Diego releasing him, which usually can't be sustained.
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby bungle613 » Thu May 20, 2010 12:34 pm

That is why they are my sleepers and not yours. I don't expect you to buy into it. Garrard is playing for his career this year and reports are he is looking good. Palmer is another year removed from his surgery and has added weapons to his arsenal. If these 2 squeak into the top 10 or 12 of QB's and I can get them 10th round or later vs say Favre who is in the 6th or Stafford etc... then that to me is the exact definition of a sleeper.
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby Kareighuis » Thu May 20, 2010 4:04 pm

bungle613 wrote:That is why they are my sleepers and not yours. I don't expect you to buy into it. Garrard is playing for his career this year and reports are he is looking good. Palmer is another year removed from his surgery and has added weapons to his arsenal. If these 2 squeak into the top 10 or 12 of QB's and I can get them 10th round or later vs say Favre who is in the 6th or Stafford etc... then that to me is the exact definition of a sleeper.


Yeah, realized that may not have been clear. As a matter of fact, few of the people I listed are my guys.

Your logic is sound, I just don't know if I would feel comfortable applying it to them. But, hey, for a cheap enough price, I'd line up for that. I'll just have to add your guys to my list.
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby spodog » Wed May 26, 2010 6:15 pm

The last several years, Garrard has been the trendy pick who is rated too low and everybody loves to project huge numbers for in May, June and July.

Every year he disappoints. There is a good reason he is rated low.

I wouldn't touch him.
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby bungle613 » Thu May 27, 2010 6:02 pm

spodog wrote:The last several years, Garrard has been the trendy pick who is rated too low and everybody loves to project huge numbers for in May, June and July.

Every year he disappoints. There is a good reason he is rated low.

I wouldn't touch him.


I've never seen anyone predict HUGE numbers for him but he is a great value pick. Sleeper may be the wrong term for him if you want to get technical but as a QB who goes as the QB20+ in a lot of leagues I will gladly take him and get my top 10-15 QB stats out of him. Even last year as the QB15 ranked he was only 7 point out of top 12 and the way I draft I have no issues with getting him in round 10 and remain close to someone who drafted a guy in round 6.
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Re: 2010 Sleepers

Postby DPierce11 » Thu May 27, 2010 9:28 pm

Kareighuis wrote:Any one have thoughts on sleepers for the coming season? Some I've seen mentioned-

Name-Brand
Matt Ryan- he struggled last year. he's currently the 10th QB taken on FootballCalculator
Santana Moss- With McNabb in town, someone will be catching those DJax passes. Moss is the most veteran WR.
Darren McFadden- with Fargas cut, the way is now open to the lead job in Oaktown. He might not have between-the-tackles pop, but he was very effective last year as a receiver out of the backfield, and the receiving options are unproven.
Steve Smith (Car)- People talk him down (15th on the Calc) but he finished the season 18th. After Delhomme gave way to Matt Moore for the final 4 games of the fantasy season, Smith had 3 straight double-digit games, compared to 4 in the previous 11 combined.
Brandon Jacobs- he struggled last year with injuries; some consider him a great bounceback candidate

Mid-Tier
Hakeem Nicks- he's gonna be an all-star(?!); showed game-breaking skills once he came back from his early-season injury
Shonn Greene- one guy actually had him ranked #5 overall, others have him in the top 12; lead dog of power-heavy team with great oline
Nate Burleson- finally joins a team where the other WR is better than him. Stafford's arm, det's improved o-line, and Best all are often cited.
Michael Bush- Russell was cut (replaced by Jason Campbell), suggesting draft status won't determine who plays anymore.
Chad Henne- progressed last season once Pennington went down, he gets Marshall as his #1 target

Deeper Prospects
Devin Aromashodu- Cutler last year constantly talked about his and DA's rhythm in the TC and practice; only tall WR in a Martz offense; stepped up in-game last year and showed he can sky for Cutler's bombs.
Brady Quinn- Goes to Den, where only Orton blocks him from the starting spot. Struggled in Cle, but would be running same offense he was successful in at Notre Dame
Tashard Choice- With the constantly-injured Jones rumored to be the starter and Barber apparently hitting the wall career-wise last season, the path to 60-80% of his team's carries just got easier.
Devin Thomas/Malcolm Kelly- A gaping hole opposite Moss, McNabb in town are frequently cited as reasons they'll bust out this year. Kelly talked about a month ago that Shanahan told him he'd be a focal point of the offense


I agree with several players from your list including Chad Henne, Michael Bush, Tashard Choice, and Devin Aromashodu. I have Aromashodu in one of my leagues and expect big things from him with Martz and a more calm Cutler. Bush and Choice just need to be given the ball more; their teams seem to be hesitant though because of who else they have at the position. Henne should be in line for a huge year with Marshall on his team and a strong run game.
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