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Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby LSUby50 » Wed May 26, 2010 2:36 pm

Ive always prescribed to the strategy of drafting your 2 stud RBs early, then adding WRs and getting that #8-10 QB in the middle rounds. That worked great for about 2000-2005, but since then Ive noticed that my teams have started slipping. Added to the fact that the workhorse Rb is a dying breed, the league is such a passing league now that those top QBs seem more valuable than the top RBs. last year i took Peyton in the early second in 2 leagues and won both. I picked unproven middle round rbs like wells, Knowshon, JStew, and got a lucky FA in Jamaal Charles. in a 3rd league I took SJax and SLaton and Rivers later and finished middle of the pack. But in all 3 leagues i noticed that 5 of 6 superbowl teams had either Brees, Peyton, or Rodgers....and one team had Orton (cant figure that one out).

So the top QBs are scoring more and more consistantly since its become such a passing league, and the top RBs are scoring less and still just as likely to get injured since its becoming a rbbc league. Not to mention there are alot more Rbs to choose from since most teams use 2. Is it time to change my strategy or did i get lucky last year? Id like to hear from some of the veteran players on if you are changing your strategy with the times...thanks!
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby dream_017 » Wed May 26, 2010 3:49 pm

Who were the running backs on those championship teams?
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby Kareighuis » Wed May 26, 2010 4:04 pm

I changed my strategy 3yrs ago. I tend to get my QB earlier, depending on the flow of the draft. Not only are RBCs reducing the comparative values of RBS in general (and driving up the perceived value of guys who dominate their team's backfield like Benson) but making impact RBs available later than had previously the case.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby LSUby50 » Wed May 26, 2010 4:27 pm

dream_017 wrote:Who were the running backs on those championship teams?


good question..i went back and looked at all 3 SB winners in my 3 leagues.
team 1 had Peyton at QB, AP(via a midseason trade), and pickup of jamaal charles (10 teamer)
team 2 had Peyton at QB, Mendenhall(FA)and Knowshon (3rd or 4th round pick) at rbs (20 team league)
team 3 had Rodgers at QB, CJohnson and JStewart at RB

this would suggest going RB,QB in rounds 1 and 2 and then look for an up and coming Rb in rounds 3-4 along with WRs. As always, you have to take what the draft gives you, not just draft based on position, but all 3 SB champs and 3 runnersup had a similar lineup with a top QB, 1 stud Rb, and 1 middle range RB that developed into a stud.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby da bears » Wed May 26, 2010 5:08 pm

Can't really just look at the RB's either. Who were the WR's/TE's? Also what if you take Peyton/Brees/or Rodgers early on in the 2nd but the other two don't go until the mid 3rd it's all about value and you wouldn't be getting it there, this could easily happen too. As the game has changed it's also produced a lot more valuable QB's, is it really worth taking Manning over Schaub a few rounds later for what could be a 10 point difference for the season? Give me a #1 WR/RB in the first two then I'll ponder worrying about taking a QB.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby LSUby50 » Wed May 26, 2010 6:22 pm

i hear ya. Except i think you can now say the same about either position-QB or RB. You could pass on a starting RB (say a guy like SJax) and get an up and comer like Beanie Wells a round or 2 later. Rb careers dont last very long and seem alot harder to predict than they used to be. In the past you could take a guy like LT, Westbrook and book them for 15+ TDs. not so much any more. with all the split backfields only 2-3 Rbs can guarantee that production. Top draft picks like SJax and Gore dont outperform alot of later round guys like Mendenhall, Knowshon, JStew. Benson was another mid round pick last year that outperformed alot of guys.
Likewise 2-3 QBs can guarantee 28+ passing TDs, and after that its anybodys guess. So my feeling now is that its easier to find a starting #2 RB in the early/midrounds (4-5) than it is to find a starting QB in the midrounds. Rookies, timeshare RBs like JStew, and guys with a change of scenery can produce just as well at RB without using those top 2 picks on RBs.

i dont know, just a trend ive noticed. Lately my teams do alot better when i have a top QB than when i have a top RB. maybe its just because ive had better luck picking RB prospects (Deangelo last year, Cedric benson this year) than those late QBs, ( Derrick Anderson after his breakout season was a bust, Eli when he was supposed to break out but never did, Romo last year). but i guess if id taken Rodgers or Schaub, id still be on board with the theory.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby LS2throwed » Wed May 26, 2010 8:16 pm

I never, ever, go into a draft saying what position I will pick ahead of time.


It all depends on where your picking, and how the draft falls. If there are still some elite players left at a certain spot you take them and don't reach on a position just to take one there. If on your 2nd round pick all the RB's have gone by and you don't see much value between them and a 4th or 5th round RB I'm going to start taking the elite QB's off the board, or see what elite WR's left.


You can get RB in the 1st round like Michael Turner, and don't have to take another one until around 4th-7th round range like J Stewart, Felix jones, Beanie Wells, etc etc etc. I would gladly take a stud QB in the 2nd if I didn't like the value of the Rb's or WR's. I'm not going to reach for any position, I'm just trying to take as many elite players as possible.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby u_fig_eater » Wed May 26, 2010 10:29 pm

I don't plan on building my roster around a RB. But like the other guys said, it depends on who's available when you draft. Last season, I had the last pick of the 1st round and the first pick of the 2nd. The RBs I had in the 1st tier were all gone, so I went WR-WR (Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss). I picked up Donald Driver later, and midseason I got Miles Austin. So pretty much every week, all year, I was starting 3 studs at WR and destroying my opponents at that position. I'm kind of an oddball; the past 2-3 years I've built around WRs. I haven't really strategized for this year yet. But I think the consensus is that at the RB position, there is a few guys at the top and then a huge middle class.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby biju » Wed May 26, 2010 10:53 pm

It always, always, always depends on your individual draft.

I've gone WR-WR in the first two rounds and find myself taking a steal 3rd WR in the 3rd round because he's got too much value to pass on. On the opposite end, I've gone RB 4 rounds straight because there's too much value. Either way I know I'm going to be trading at some point.

The problems with "draft strategy" where you're picking positions to fill ahead of time, is if too many people have a similar strategy that pick ahead of you (also known as position runs) you end up with lousy value. I'd prefer to just take them as they come regardless of filling out a starting roster.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby aaawall91 » Wed May 26, 2010 11:49 pm

Agreed with the most recent couple of posts.

For me this year it seems the "elite" production QBs are alot deeper than in the past. Any of the top 7 (arguably more) would get you "elite" production compared to the rest of the field IMO.

Last year it was the Big 3: Brees, Brady, Manning.

This year I see it as (Alphabetical order):

Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Romo, Schaub. And some could argue for others, but I don't consider them in the same category just yet.
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