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Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby Munboy » Wed May 26, 2010 11:59 pm

Due to time constraints, I no longer play FF, but my last year was 2007. That year, I was in the bottom half of the draft in terms of first round pick. I picked Tom Brady. I also picked up R. Moss in the 3rd.

I won that year for obvious reasons, but as I was approaching that draft, I thought to myself that I wasn't going to force an RB in the first round. More and more teams are going to an RBBC and the league is shifting to a pass first league, so I wasn't about to take an RB just because you're supposed to take RBs in the first and second round.

It paid dividends in the end, so I don't see any fault in taking an elite QB in the first. There's very few true RB1s anymore and several QBs who will get pay off big week after week.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby bungle613 » Thu May 27, 2010 12:26 am

It's an interesting argument and I will certainly agree with everyone that THE KEY to a good draft is to be flexible. I've played FF for a long time and in alot of leagues and I have not tried taking a QB in the first 2-3 rounds since probably 2003 or 2004. I got killed and still just don't see the value.

A bunch of us played in a 16 team league last year and I was ranked #14 in QB stats at year end. I had drafted Cutler and maybe Freeman, regardless I started Freeman in the Championship game and won. The #1 QB scorer outpointed me by over 100 at the QB slot but with my flex spot I started my 3rd RB most often and outscored him by over 200 points. I can't seem to pull up the draft results but I think I went CJ, Calvin, Jones, Stewart, Dallas Clark, Cutler. The only reason I did take Cutler was it was a 16 teamer and QB's were getting gobbled up.

While a top QB is a nice luxury I will gladly stack my team with RB's and WR's while others grab that QB in the first 3 rounds.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby u_fig_eater » Thu May 27, 2010 1:39 am

aaawall91 wrote:This year I see it as (Alphabetical order):

Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Romo, Schaub. And some could argue for others, but I don't consider them in the same category just yet.


To add to this, I'm targeting Romo this year. Love everything about his situation.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby dream_017 » Thu May 27, 2010 7:22 am

bungle613 wrote:While a top QB is a nice luxury I will gladly stack my team with RB's and WR's while others grab that QB in the first 3 rounds.

I too have done very well with this ;-D


u_fig_eater wrote:
aaawall91 wrote:This year I see it as (Alphabetical order):

Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Romo, Schaub. And some could argue for others, but I don't consider them in the same category just yet.


To add to this, I'm targeting Romo this year. Love everything about his situation.


With 7-8 top QBs what is the rush to get a QB in the 1st or 2nd round?

Like others have said, you need to know who you are drafting with and how the draft is unfolding. Going into a draft with a mindset of this is the position I'm taking no matter what is a huge mistake.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby Munboy » Thu May 27, 2010 10:06 am

dream_017 wrote:With 7-8 top QBs what is the rush to get a QB in the 1st or 2nd round?


On the flip side of this, name 7-8 elite stud RBs... Ones who play every snap, doesn't get pulled out on 3rd down, and doesn't get goalline snaps taken away. I think you'll come up with a number smaller than that 7-8. So if you're in a 16 man league, why would you take an inferior RB in the 1st and 2nd round with elite QB sitting there waiting? If you pick later in the 1st round, all of those stud RBs will already be gone. It just doesn't make sense to skip over a QB because you're supposed to take a RB. I say pick up an elite QB and grab a 2nd teir RB when your pick comes back around in the 2nd. Or, pick up another one of those elite QBs and dangle him out for trade when somebody panics and winds up with Bradford as his starting QB because he stacked up on 2nd teir RBs in the first 3 rounds.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby aaawall91 » Thu May 27, 2010 10:58 am

dream_017 wrote:
bungle613 wrote:While a top QB is a nice luxury I will gladly stack my team with RB's and WR's while others grab that QB in the first 3 rounds.

I too have done very well with this ;-D


u_fig_eater wrote:
aaawall91 wrote:This year I see it as (Alphabetical order):

Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Romo, Schaub. And some could argue for others, but I don't consider them in the same category just yet.


To add to this, I'm targeting Romo this year. Love everything about his situation.


With 7-8 top QBs what is the rush to get a QB in the 1st or 2nd round?


Like others have said, you need to know who you are drafting with and how the draft is unfolding. Going into a draft with a mindset of this is the position I'm taking no matter what is a huge mistake.


Exactly my point, 1st and 2nd round are pretty much out of the question, even if these guys are flying off the board. But the pick where I think I can grab the last one of these guys, thats the pick to take them IMO. Fyi. Fantasyfootballcalculator.com has Schaub and Romo's adp at 4.05 and 4.06 respectively. Although to be honest I think you will see them go later in most real drafts because of all the idiots who take QBs in the first round in those mocks.

You can get similar if not better elite production from 4th and 5th round QBs this year compared to...well anything taken before that, if you strike at the right time.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby dream_017 » Thu May 27, 2010 11:47 am

Munboy wrote:
dream_017 wrote:With 7-8 top QBs what is the rush to get a QB in the 1st or 2nd round?


On the flip side of this, name 7-8 elite stud RBs... Ones who play every snap, doesn't get pulled out on 3rd down, and doesn't get goalline snaps taken away. I think you'll come up with a number smaller than that 7-8. So if you're in a 16 man league, why would you take an inferior RB in the 1st and 2nd round with elite QB sitting there waiting? If you pick later in the 1st round, all of those stud RBs will already be gone. It just doesn't make sense to skip over a QB because you're supposed to take a RB. I say pick up an elite QB and grab a 2nd teir RB when your pick comes back around in the 2nd. Or, pick up another one of those elite QBs and dangle him out for trade when somebody panics and winds up with Bradford as his starting QB because he stacked up on 2nd teir RBs in the first 3 rounds.

All the more reason to stock up on RB to try and hit one(or hopefully 2) top 7-8 RBs.

The reason I asked for more info on the rosters of the championship teams that had the top QB, was to see that 2 of the 3 had either AD or CJ2K ;-D It would be interesting to see the WRs too

I am still amazed at the number of people that don't think about positional scarcity 8-o
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby Stelly » Thu May 27, 2010 2:22 pm

I read an article last season (I think it was on Rotoworld) that was addressing the lack of top RB talent in Fantasy drafts. The basic premise was that it is no longer necessary (or even recomended) to go RB/RB in the first 2 rounds (where 5 years ago that was THE way to draft). Sure, if the value is there, pull the trigger. Otherwise, try and land one top-teir RB1, and then collect 2-3 from the middle tiers, and play the hot hand/matchups. Meanwhile, grab a couple high end WRs, maybe even a stud QB and you are in good shape.

Basically, play RB2BC (running back 2 by committee). Look at the RBs this year - how many RBs are going to end he year with 1100/7? A bunch. Why reach for one of those guys in round 2 when you can get a similar player in round 4?

Depending on my draft position, I tend to have a good idea who may be available to me in the first 2 rounds of my draft. I don't go in thinking "I'm taking a RB in round 1 and a WR in round 2." I get a feel for who might be available, so I can think about which guys I like or don't like. Then I let the draft come to me. Very often, I am suprised my the talent that falls to me because of other owners making suprise picks/mistakes/taking players I don't want even though it's a reasonable pick.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby bungle613 » Thu May 27, 2010 2:58 pm

I really do love this argument. The cafe is so entrenched with the RB and WR as early and often as possible it always makes for good reading. Wasn't a league spawned out of a discussion last year to prove our oldschool point that drafting QB's early is a msitake?

I agree 100% with all those who say look at how few quality RB's are left in the NFL in FF terms. You can no longer pass on CJ, AD, MJD, Turner, Gore, SJax, Rice, Grant, Mendy and a couple more I think. Having 1-2 of these guys is such an advantage in any style of league, you just can't look past it.

The new age of dynasty dominance is here for those that have sucked and were able to draft Rice, MEndy, CJ etc... in the last couple of years.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby LSUby50 » Fri May 28, 2010 8:17 am

all good points. thanks for the input. I guess the trend ive been noticing is, as someone stated, fewer top RBs, and alot more middle range rbs. i agree on drafting value, not position, but its good to have a general plan before the draft...and a backup plan.
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