Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

[biju]

I really do love this argument. The cafe is so entrenched with the RB and WR as early and often as possible it always makes for good reading. Wasn't a league spawned out of a discussion last year to prove our oldschool point that drafting QB's early is a msitake?

I agree 100% with all those who say look at how few quality RB's are left in the NFL in FF terms. You can no longer pass on CJ, AD, MJD, Turner, Gore, SJax, Rice, Grant, Mendy and a couple more I think. Having 1-2 of these guys is such an advantage in any style of league, you just can't look past it.

The new age of dynasty dominance is here for those that have sucked and were able to draft Rice, MEndy, CJ etc... in the last couple of years.

The "QB in the first round" league was two years ago. It proved a point and failed at the same time: the pick was Tom Brady and I'm sure it's still fresh enough in people's minds what happened to him. So we didn't necessarily get to see how "polarbear" would have fared with Brady for an entire season, but there was still a lesson there. The lesson is that most of the time you pick 2 RBs in the first four rounds meaning the next available talent isn't *too* far off the mark. You basically *never* take two QBs in the first 4 rounds (and that could possibly even be extended to the first 8 rounds if you took a QB in the 1st although PB took a QB in the 7th if I remember correctly) so that means the "replacement" is far worse than your starter.

As a side note, PB refused to "follow" the rest of the league and went QB-WR-WR-TE-RB with his first RB being Darren McFadden in the 5th. At the time it seemed ok at best, but now we know that was a pretty bad #1 RB. In other words, his downfall was not taking a top tier RB at that 4th overall slot.

As another side note, I remember I destroyed that league all up until the finals.

[Munboy]

My argument isn't about the top tier RBs. There are 5-6 RBs you should absolutely draft in the first round, but after that, there's a significant drop off in talent and/or scheme (how the RB is used). It's silly to go into a draft thinking you're 100% taking a RB no matter what draft position when you can get one of the top 2-3 QBs and pick up a RB of the same potential in the 2nd.

It's ok to have a draft strategy, but to stick to it unwaiveringly is a mistake.

[moochman]

My strategy evolves every year around one basic tenet: trust in talent. I try to draft the studliest stud left. If early in the round, that will be a RB, later often is a WR, and at the end of the round almost always ends up WR/WR. You have to get production out of your early picks and drafting the studliest studs, or trusting in talent, helps insure more consistant high scoring.
The real truth in drafting is that you cannot miss on many picks or you are done. Its not like baseball where the wire is full of surprise producers to plug errors and injuries. You have to be right. Teams that took QBs in round one and won did so because they also nailed productive players later.
For my money, QBs in the first round are as much if not more of a crap shoot that RBs or WRs, given that value is based on production for position. Manning, Brady, Brees, Rogers, and Rivers all give you top level numbers, but who will be the top on any given year? I don't know, but I do know that it will be harder to find a WR or RB later than a QB.

[Free Bagel]

This seems silly to me. If anything, the game is changing to make drafting a QB early even LESS useful now than before.

There were ten quarterbacks that threw for 4000+ yards last year. TEN. Twelve quarterbacks threw for 26+ TDs last year. TWELVE. It's never been easier to find a good QB late than it is right now. Eli Manning threw for 4000/27 last year and you could get the guy for pennies. In the past you would have had to trade a stud RB to get a QB putting up that kind of production.

And the ceiling for QBs 1-3 hasn't really risen from what it used to be much either, which makes the fact that QB10 nowadays is so wildly outperforming QB10 of four years ago even more killer.

[mattb47]

This seems silly to me. If anything, the game is changing to make drafting a QB early even LESS useful now than before.

There were ten quarterbacks that threw for 4000+ yards last year. TEN. Twelve quarterbacks threw for 26+ TDs last year. TWELVE. It's never been easier to find a good QB late than it is right now. Eli Manning threw for 4000/27 last year and you could get the guy for pennies. In the past you would have had to trade a stud RB to get a QB putting up that kind of production.

And the ceiling for QBs 1-3 hasn't really risen from what it used to be much either, which makes the fact that QB10 nowadays is so wildly outperforming QB10 of four years ago even more killer.

Agreed here. I think the exceptions can come into play when you're talking about the guys who can consistently put up studly numbers on a weekly basis but that can be said about any position really. The point here is that QB is now an extremely deep position fantasy wise and unless you wait an absolutely stupid amount of time to take one, chances are you'll still have one putting up some good numbers.

[Cowboys 4 life]

FF drafting is definately changing but its more as people above mentioned in the fact that the Stud RB's are few and far in between.

I see a trend right now and play to it. If you are at the later end of the round don't be afraid to draft the best WR available. I call it power of position. Winning by 10 points is the exact same no matter how you do it. QB, RB, WR...doesn't matter. You know the top 4-5 draft picks are going RB and possibly 6-7. The guys taking a RB at 6-7 are so far behind the guys who picked 2-3 picks before them that the only way to make it up is to pick well in the following rounds.

I see 10 or so RB's off the board in the first 12 picks with 2 wr's. In the second you see about 2 qb's and a split of 5 and 5 RB's and WR's respectively. When the 3rd round comes the WR's start flying off the board. This gives those people who went WR WR, WR RB, or WR QB, a chance at some good value at the RB spot and QB spot. Hech as Bagel mentioned you can get a very solid QB much later than in past years. After that you must take the best guy available unless it drastically hurts your bye weeks or leaves you with little depth at a certain position.

[ezenbrowntown]

While elite RB's still need to be nabbed early (if available), it's not the rule it used to be, especially in a PPR league. From my experience, nothing matters more than "hitting" on your draft picks, especially in the first 3 rounds. Homeruns can be had later on, but those first three to four picks are you week in and week out point guys. If you look at last year, in hind sight would you have rather had Forte or A. Johnson? He was supposed to be "elite" last year. As someone mentioned earlier, it's all about getting the best guy at the time.

Another thing to consider, every fantasy draft is different. Every year the talent in each position is different. The best way I've found to look at this is through doing lots of mock drafts. My take this year, is that the RB class is the leanest of the major positions, while QB, and TE are extremely deep. WR is deep too, but there is a gap between the elite wide outs and the rest of the class.

From what I've seen thus far, after CJ, AP, MJD, Rice come off the board, the rat race begins. Gore, SJax, Turner, and Johnson could all easily vie for that spot, and each one would have a valid argument. You could even throw Brees and Rodgers into that mix, and make a solid case for it. As was said earlier, it's all about value. I did a mock today where Aaron Rodgers fell to me late in the 2nd round of a 10 team draft. Normally I don't pull the trigger on a QB that early, but the value was too good to pass up in my opinion. This method throws the rest of my draft out of sync a bit, but can be overcome.

[bagobonez]

I tend to think this will make the elite RB's even more valuable. Yes alot of teams use RBBC, and alot of teams are throwing the ball more now, but if you get Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson you can still land a 4000 yard QB and a 1300 yard WR in rounds 2-4. Then your QB's and WR's are similar to your opponent but you have a 3 down workhorse at RB as well.

[benb18a]

I tend to think this will make the elite RB's even more valuable. Yes alot of teams use RBBC, and alot of teams are throwing the ball more now, but if you get Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson you can still land a 4000 yard QB and a 1300 yard WR in rounds 2-4. Then your QB's and WR's are similar to your opponent but you have a 3 down workhorse at RB as well.

I like this logic. I remember when I had that #1 pick back when LT was the undisputed #1, and I simply picked the top WR and QB(if there was one that wasn't a reach at that point) at that 2/3 turn and took home the title. Having a back like that allows you to put together a sick starting lineup instead of feeling the need to get 3 RBs in the first 4 of 5 rounds.

[bagobonez]

Something else came to mind while thinking about this thread. As the NFL shifts to a more pass happy league, defenses are adjusting with faster but smaller safeties and linebackers, and defensive linemen that are better pass rusher than run pluggers. Which over time will make defenses once again susceptible to the power running game. The pendulum will eventually swing back, and wise fantasy owners will be ready to swing with it when that time comes. Who knows when that will be, but probably in 5-10 years.