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Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby markulous » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:03 pm

It depends how everything falls. A lot of my mocks I've been waiting and getting Eli Manning around the 7th round. The guy keeps improving and has a great cast around him yet I've seen him ranked anywhere from 10-15. If there's value in early rounds with RBs/WRs, then I'm almost always going to wait. I think he puts up around the same numbers as Rivers and you can get him a few rounds later. Last year Schaub was the same way, but I think he was a little riskier. Flacco or Cutler might not be bad either but I'm bigger on Manning.

It's all about value though.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:27 pm

bagobonez wrote:Something else came to mind while thinking about this thread. As the NFL shifts to a more pass happy league, defenses are adjusting with faster but smaller safeties and linebackers, and defensive linemen that are better pass rusher than run pluggers. Which over time will make defenses once again susceptible to the power running game. The pendulum will eventually swing back, and wise fantasy owners will be ready to swing with it when that time comes. Who knows when that will be, but probably in 5-10 years.


Disagree. The NFL isn't going back as long as the rules continue to be changed in favor of the passing offense. A power-running game is just too risky; one penalty kills a drive, as does one failed play (that results in a loss). Whereas a passing offense can waste at least one of the three downs without even really having to worry about it...
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:40 am

Agreed...it's not just that teams are wanting to change their style of play towards a passing game, it's that the rules are pushing the game towards a more high scoring, pass-heavy league and that's probably not going to change as they'll continue to protect QBs as much as possible which only allows them to be able to have more room to pass. I don't think we'll see them go back but I do think that teams can still win by running the ball well and playing good defense as we saw the Jets do last season.
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Re: Is the fantasy game changing? QB draft strategy...

Postby benb18a » Tue Jun 22, 2010 5:38 pm

Well, here are some numbers to compare current Cafe ADPs to recent years.

ADP of 12th QB taken, or last starting QB(usually), in 12 team mocks:

2010: 8.03(Flacco)
2009: 8:02(Palmer)
2008: 8.01(Cutler)
2007: 8.06(Leinart)

Obviously this is pretty consistent, with hardly any deviation at all.

Here are the total points scored for the top scoring QB vs. the 12th highest scoring QB:

2009: Rodgers(411) and Campbell(300)
2008: Brees(384) and Pennington(261)
2007: Brady(448) and Kitna(271)
2006: Manning(363) and Young(243)
2005: Palmer(311) and Vick(263)
2004: Culpepper(423) and Vick(263)
2003: Culpepper(328) and McNabb(264)
2002: Culpepper(369) and Pennington(252)

Things to observe:

inconsistency; at the top QB spot. Five different QBs were #2 in scoring for the past five years. Four of the five are still unanimous top 5 QBs; Palmer seemed to be on that track but injuries have relegated him to the perennial "this is the year he bounces back" category. Good luck guessing who this year's top scorer will be. The only sure thing, is that, barring injury, you're getting a stud with a top five QB. Which is okay for those late-2nd to early-4th round picks, but drafting that hot #1 projected QB in the first round has generally resulted in failure. There were some unconscionable years(Brady's 4th quarter, 4th down TD toss fest in 2007), but the deviation from year to year has been great. Obviously one of the monster seasons like Brady's record setter will land most teams a title, but good luck trying to predict when these years will be. However, the top QB's average has risen by nearly 50 points over the last four years, compared to the four before that. The top QB drafted has not been the top scorer in the last four years.

Consistency; at the QB12 spot. Prior to the surge in depth of last year, the lo/hi scoring at that spot had been 243 and 271, a mere difference of 28 points, or less than 2 points per week on average. With that consistency, you don't have to worry about getting a clunker when you stock up on studly starters and depth at WR and RB and wait to get the final starting QB. It's no wonder a few of the leagues I was in last year produced either a champion, or very high scoring squad, after waiting to take the QB12 in the middle rounds.

Depth; last year the QB12(300) scored enough points to be the: 8th, 10th, 7th, 3rd, 9th, 6th, and 7th highest-scoring QB in years 2002-2008(in reverse chronological order). That is ridiculous. If a fortune teller told you you'd get nearly 20 points a week from your QB if you waited until the 8th round to draft him, I'm pretty sure you'd be inclined to wait and stock up on skill position players in those early rounds that others are taking their QBs.

300 point QBs by year:

2009: 12
2008: 7
2007: 9
2006: 6
2005: 2
2004: 8
2003: 5
2002: 6

Obviously the QBs that average about 20 points per week or more have been increasing, so reaching for a certified stud in the first three rounds is not necessary. Although, it looks like the 6-7 guys are going in the mid-4th at this point, so you can't wait forever for a stud. The increase in passing productivity hasn't really flown under the radar. It does, however, make more sense to wait until the elite tier is gone IMHO.


Conclusion:

It is evident that QB scoring has increased in recent years, while RBs/WRs who score over 175 points has remained fairly consistent since 2002. The 10th scoring RBs scored 183 and 191 points the last two years, while they scored 191, 194 and 182 points in 2002-2004. Numbers for the 15th highest scoring RB are pretty similar from those years also, averaging about 162 points in both groups. Has RBBC killed the fantasy star? Not really. It seems the offense has been dominating defenses in recent years, period. The rule changes have increased passing proficiency while seemingly not affecting rushing numbers. It's not like teams are simply passing more because of the rules changes, the ratios have probably remained similar, while YPA has increased. Either that or offenses are simply on the field longer, putting up higher numbers on average. The scarcity of high scoring QBs has increased while RBs and WRs have remained about the same, which gives both skill positions a relative positional scarcity. Going QB-RB-WR-RB-WR won't give you the results it maybe did back when Peyton was the unanimous #1 QB. Going with a QB in the 4-8 rounds make a lot of sense, given the output of QBs in the second and third tiers.
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