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Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

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Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby spodog » Wed Jun 09, 2010 3:43 pm

Just took a look at some ADP numbers that are current for May/June drafts.

Terrell Owens just over 117
Big Ben right at 118.5

C'mon!

TO has no team, appears to have no interest right now, and is gonna have to wait around for a training camp injury to sign on with some worthless or next to worthless team as a slow footed backup slot receiver.

Big Ben, on the other hand, sits out the 4 games, then is an every week starter for some team the rest of the way. The guy finished as a Top 10 QB last year, and was better than that over the first 1/2 of the fantasy season.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby bungle613 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 4:27 pm

Don't look at overall ADP.

BEn is going as the QB16. That imo is about right. There are 15 guys I would currently take ahead of Ben.

Owens I would never draft but regardless is going as the WR47. So 46 Wr are going ahead of him which seems maybe a tad high but not unreasonably high. Other WR's in an around that mark are Floyd, Cribbs, Tate and Walter. Not unreasonble to consider drafting TO in with that group.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby kliquid » Wed Jun 09, 2010 4:49 pm

Roethlisberger isn't a consistent fantasy player. If you only look at what he did in 2009, you're completely neglecting the fact that he has had an extremely off-and-on fantasy career. He only has two seasons (of six) with more than 18 touchdowns. That's not good. It's not like he's out there rushing for a bunch of yards, either.

If you consider the fact that you're not going to have Roethlisberger for four games, along with the fact that he's not going to be working out exclusively with the first team offense while he's sitting out (the team will probably want to get their REAL starter in there during practice); you're talking about a tough fantasy situation.

With Roethlisberger being at 16, I actually think that there are a number of guys who I would rather have than him who are ranked below him on the ADP calc.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:00 pm

kliquid wrote:Roethlisberger isn't a consistent fantasy player. If you only look at what he did in 2009, you're completely neglecting the fact that he has had an extremely off-and-on fantasy career. He only has two seasons (of six) with more than 18 touchdowns. That's not good. It's not like he's out there rushing for a bunch of yards, either.

If you consider the fact that you're not going to have Roethlisberger for four games, along with the fact that he's not going to be working out exclusively with the first team offense while he's sitting out (the team will probably want to get their REAL starter in there during practice); you're talking about a tough fantasy situation.

With Roethlisberger being at 16, I actually think that there are a number of guys who I would rather have than him who are ranked below him on the ADP calc.


The problem with this thinking is that while you are right on saying you can't just look at one year, it is pretty narrow minded to just look at his career as being "extremely off-and-on" and leave it at that. He's performed well ever since they started giving him more responsibility and more freedom to pass the ball and make plays and his numbers last season reflect that. One thing going against him (other than the suspension) is that the Steelers are likely to run the ball more this season as their defense is unlikely to struggle as much as it did last year but Big Ben is still likely a QB1 when he returns from his suspension....what really comes into play is how much you value those 4-6 games he's going to miss early on.

I think when he comes back he'll likely be a top 10 QB the rest of the way.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby biju » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:35 pm

mattb47 wrote:I think when he comes back he'll likely be a top 10 QB the rest of the way.


I don't have anything but gut feeling here, but I don't think he'll be a startable QB this year. I'd never draft him with the idea of eventually starting him this year--too much risk in doing so for me.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:50 pm

How do you figure that? Just curious...I mean he's been taking steps forward as a QB each season and I don't really see him falling off so heavily that he won't be startable after being a pretty good fantasy QB last season.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby Dawinner127 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 9:57 pm

mattb47 wrote:How do you figure that? Just curious...I mean he's been taking steps forward as a QB each season and I don't really see him falling off so heavily that he won't be startable after being a pretty good fantasy QB last season.

The loss of Holmes definitely doesn't help him out.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby portisfan24 » Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:40 am

He might be borderline top 10 from week 5 and on, but to me that puts him around 15th-16th for an entire season. Like liquid said, he is going to be way behind when he does get back. He won't be getting all the first team reps and will be playing against defenses that have 4 games under their belts, while he will be trying to find a groove. I agree with the ADP of 16ish.

As far as the original post, I think TO is being drafted on potential. Once you get that low in the draft why not take a chance on a guy with his talent? It was only two years ago that he put up WR1 numbers with Dallas.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jun 10, 2010 8:08 am

QB14 last year was 3800/26. Roethlisberger has come even in the realm of those (QB14) numbers twice in six years.

Now granted, he had more freedom to throw the ball last year than he has in the past so it's entirely possible for him to maintain this level going forward. I think a big product of that was the poor play of the defense last year though and the Pittsburgh defense usually doesn't stay down for long.

Even last year, in his best year, Roethlisberger was 12th in QB scoring. With half the league's QBs putting up insane numbers nowadays, if you had your pick why would you take the one that doesn't have a history of repeating numbers in that range, could be held back (fantasy wise) by his defense, and of course will miss 4-6 games this season?

Granted, in a vacuum, I'd rather have Roethlisberger than Owens. But positional scarcity comes into play here, as Bungle said. Last year's QB12 is suspended for 6 games this year and now has an ADP of QB16. That sounds about right.
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Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby ezenbrowntown » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:48 am

I'm going to differ with you on the worthlessness of ADP. It's a very valuable tool in fantasy drafts. I keep a similar spread sheet of mock drafts I participate in for that same reason. Not only does it come with an "average", but also highs and lows. Got a player you consider a sleeper and really want on your roster this year? ADP gives you an idea of where you'll need to pick him up at. It also shows what players are "rising" and "falling". Granted all this information will sway as time gets closer to the draft somewhat, but it allows me to generate a pretty good idea of where people are going.

As for the the T.O./Big Ben bit, there's other information you have to consider when looking at those numbers. One of those is, people are drafting in June with the assumption that T.O. will end up on a team. I'd say that's a pretty good assumption. While a little high for where'd I draft him, I wouldn't say it's outlandish to take him among the others in the area. At the stage you're digging around looking for a homerun anyway, and T.O. could have that potential.

As for Ben, I'm not high on him personally this year at all. He's missing a portion of the season, and his Pro Bowl wideout is gone. I'm afraid the Steelers will struggle at the start with teams stacking the box to make them win by airing it out. I see them starting the season in a hole that they can't get back out of. I don't think the draft postion is wrong per say in either case, but there isn't anything wrong with not agreeing with where they are being taken. But just because of you don't agree with two draft positions, I don't believe that makes a whole sale case of why ADP isn't of value. Just my thoughts..........
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