Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jun 11, 2010 9:18 pm

I think people misunderstand how important Holmes was to the offense...while he was a good WR and made plays, most of his big plays came because he finally came open after Big Ben extended plays. Ben didn't look his way necessarily more than other guys and would throw it to whoever is open so I don't think that the loss of Holmes really hurts them as much as people seem to be thinking.

Considering where you can get Big Ben, he's not a guy you have to draft as a starter but he's got much higher upside as a backup than anyone you could really take in the same general area suspension and all.

And I'll echo some of the things ezenbrowntown said about ADP not being completely worthless...it might not be completely accurate or always make sense, but it can give a general idea of where guys are tending to go which lets you get the most out of your picks. Obviously you can't follow this to form all the time, but it can be somewhat useful in some situations.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby moochman » Sat Jun 12, 2010 8:01 am

Matt, I would be a little concerned that the Stillers will try to establish a better run game due to the absence of Ben early, the loss of Holmes, and maybe even a little anger toward Belligerant Ben. The pass game could be seriously de-emphasized reducing the stat potentional for BB.

ADP as a stat has to be taken in context. What sites are these stats compiled from and when. This early in the season there are more oddball ADPs, like TO. Should Owens end up somewhere like New England, and his stock shoots way up.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16300
(Past Year: 80)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby mattb47 » Sat Jun 12, 2010 8:20 pm

moochman wrote:Matt, I would be a little concerned that the Stillers will try to establish a better run game due to the absence of Ben early, the loss of Holmes, and maybe even a little anger toward Belligerant Ben. The pass game could be seriously de-emphasized reducing the stat potentional for BB.

ADP as a stat has to be taken in context. What sites are these stats compiled from and when. This early in the season there are more oddball ADPs, like TO. Should Owens end up somewhere like New England, and his stock shoots way up.


I think that the idea that they will attempt to run more is more of a "concern" for Ben's fantasy stats than Holmes leaving but even then I don't necessarily think it will give him a huge hit to his fantasy stats. He did a lot of his damage last season with just passing a whole lot when everyone knew they were going to pass without much of a running game to keep defenses honest. Now Roethlisberger probably won't have the sheer amount of pass attempts he had last season for a few different reasons, but he's a guy who can put up good, solid numbers without high pass attempts. Last season only Philip Rivers had a higher yards per attempt than Big Ben did. He's not going to be an elite QB by any means, but considering where he's being taken and what his potential upside is when he does come back, he's worth taking for sure as a high upside QB2.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Proof of ADP as a worthless statistic

Postby moochman » Sun Jun 13, 2010 12:05 am

I would love to have Belligerent Ben as my number two. I could see his yards per game go down, but think he will still throw enough TDs to make him viable.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16300
(Past Year: 80)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Previous

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kyle2270 and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 4:49 hours
(and 42 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact