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Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

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Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Poll ended at Wed Jun 16, 2010 9:47 pm

WR Brandon LaFell, Carolina Panthers
2
13%
RB Toby Gerhart, Minnesota Vikings
2
13%
RB Jonathan Dwyer, Pittsburgh Steelers
4
25%
TE Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals
2
13%
QB Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers
3
19%
Other (please explain)
3
19%
 
Total votes : 16

Re: Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Postby biju » Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:11 pm

mattb47 wrote:I think that Gresham honestly has just as low a floor as Williams when you consider the bust rate of TEs in the NFL and the extensive injury history the guy has especially to his knees...those are just as big or bigger concerns to me on top of the fact that he's on the Bengals who have never proven they can effectively use a TE. I think he has a lot more things going against him than you seem to think and I don't know that he's really much of a sure thing in any way here. I'd take Williams all day every day over Gresham in a rookie draft.


Personally I don't even see Gresham as the #1 TE in this year's rookie drafts. Mike Williams is going to surprise a lot of people. I wish I had taken a closer look at him during my rookie draft as most of these guys listed here were there with my 2nd round pick and I didn't take him.

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Re: Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jun 15, 2010 10:16 pm

Curious as to who you have as the #1 TE but I agree that he may not even end up as the best TE from this class as there were actually a good deal of pretty solid TE prospects drafted this past season who could be productive pass catchers in the NFL.
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Re: Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Jun 16, 2010 4:44 pm

biju wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:Well, I'm the only person who's voted Gresham so far, so here's why I voted against all the rest-

LaFell- Great opportunity, with Smith and the running game drawing coverage. Moose is retired and Jarrett hasn't taken hold of his chance to be the #2 WR. CBS considered LaFell the best WR prospect going into last year's college season. He has all the measurables you'd want in a WR- except his small hands (8 3/4), which led to a ton of drops in college. A great blocker who can step right in for Muhammad, LaFell is a better football prospect than fantasy football player.

Gerhart and Dwyer- pre-draft, both were fantasy considerations. Both were drafted by teams with either elite or soon-to-be-established RBs in Adrian Peterson and Mendenhall. Both will be, at best, back-up RBs. Both have the physique that have led many to say they should play FB at the pro-level.

Clausen- not elite, not guaranteed to even start. Positional scarcity only comes into play when considering the rookie QBs. Some dynasty teams have been sitting on QBs like Leinart, Kolb and Henne- I'd consider targeting one of them or getting a placeholder and one of the QBs coming out next year.

Mike Williams- Talent with little positional competition gives him a high ceiling. But, character concerns give him a very low floor. A very wide possible range of production.

Gresham- Ochocinco can draw coverage, but lacks big-play ability. A plethora of WRs (Antonio Bryant, Dez Briscoe, Jordan Shipley, Andre Caldwell) can potentially line up opposite, but injury, rookie and character concerns abound. Gresham has the vertical speed to be a downfield weapon- depending on Bryant's head and knees, perhaps the only one.

I'm much more willing to draft Gresham's higher floor with very good ceiling to Williams' extremely wide differential between his potential upper-level production and his bust chance. You know Gresham will produce- you hope Williams will. Gresham's ceiling is near Williams', but his floor is MUCH higher.


Kareighuis, I love reading your thoughts on players. I love them because for the most part I completely disagree with them. We are so completely polar opposite on nearly every topic I actually get really excited when I see your posts. Not that one of us is right and one is wrong, good or bad, smart or stupid; but our strategies must be so different that they end up working in spite of having differing views.

I find that nothing short of amazing. Seriously. I know my track record and I suspect most people on this board dominate their local leagues too.


I'm curious, any parts in this post you disagree with? I put out a lot of opinions in this post, some of which I think more strongly than others.

The general idea is, when picking early in a draft (dynasty or redraft), take the guy you're more certain will produce, regardless of position and needs.

Oh, and in listing Cincinnati's WR options, I failed to mention Jerome Simpson. He has big-play speed, but that hasn't translated.

I'm willing to bet someone who doesn't like Gresham (injury issues; Cincy has one of the smallest scouting departments, leading them sometimes to overlook/miss character/injury issues) would prefer Gronkowski. New England, I think, would much more thorough about investigating his back problems than Cincinnati.
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Re: Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Postby The Lung » Wed Jun 16, 2010 7:30 pm

This poll ends tonight. ;-D
(~);}

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Re: Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Postby LS2throwed » Wed Jun 16, 2010 9:00 pm

Kareighuis wrote:Mike Williams- Talent with little positional competition gives him a high ceiling. But, character concerns give him a very low floor. A very wide possible range of production.



I'm much more willing to draft Gresham's higher floor with very good ceiling to Williams' extremely wide differential between his potential upper-level production and his bust chance. You know Gresham will produce- you hope Williams will. Gresham's ceiling is near Williams', but his floor is MUCH higher.




See, here's the thing though.


Evenif you buy into MW's "character concerns", that to me has absolutely nothing to do with his "bust potential". Those are two different things in itself. What your referring to mean's he'll holdout for a bigger rookie contract, or be an ass after TD's, alienate teammates, want a huge contract after his first big year, none of his supposed character concerns have anything to do with him having a bust factor nor do they relate to him having a low floor of any kind.


MW is a 1st round talent, it's already showed in OTA's, Benn is the project with the low floor and he's already off the board in these polls and most rookie drafts, that's who your taking the risk with, MW has far less risk in terms of being a bust.


Also, when you draft a guy your looking at "best case scenario" with that player. In that case, would you rather have Brandon Marshall or Antonio Gates? Miles Austin or Jermichael Finley? I think most cases you take that elite WR, and by all accounts MW has everything needed to become that; opportunity, looks, skills, size, talent, and he's impressing coaches early on.



I'd also never draft Gresham without, as Mattb said looking into his injur history. Because if were talking negatives, injury history, especially multiple serious injuries to both knee's of all places, are FAR and away more severe then character concerns. In a Dynasty I want a guy who will last 10 years if I'm drafting a TE, I have doubts about Gresham, none that would stop me from taking him, but they are still there and while I'd love to have him on a few teams I couldn't see myself taking him over Williams.



I just disagree with character concerns giving a guy a low floor or high bust probability, truth be told diva WR's usually end up pretty good because it's a flashy position, they want to score to showcase themselves and make more money. If I think there is any WR left with a chance of being a #1 elite type of talent I won't pass him up late in the 1st round, especially not for a TE with multiple knee injuries.
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Re: Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Postby biju » Thu Jun 17, 2010 12:14 am

Kareighuis wrote:
biju wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:Well, I'm the only person who's voted Gresham so far, so here's why I voted against all the rest-

LaFell- Great opportunity, with Smith and the running game drawing coverage. Moose is retired and Jarrett hasn't taken hold of his chance to be the #2 WR. CBS considered LaFell the best WR prospect going into last year's college season. He has all the measurables you'd want in a WR- except his small hands (8 3/4), which led to a ton of drops in college. A great blocker who can step right in for Muhammad, LaFell is a better football prospect than fantasy football player.

Gerhart and Dwyer- pre-draft, both were fantasy considerations. Both were drafted by teams with either elite or soon-to-be-established RBs in Adrian Peterson and Mendenhall. Both will be, at best, back-up RBs. Both have the physique that have led many to say they should play FB at the pro-level.

Clausen- not elite, not guaranteed to even start. Positional scarcity only comes into play when considering the rookie QBs. Some dynasty teams have been sitting on QBs like Leinart, Kolb and Henne- I'd consider targeting one of them or getting a placeholder and one of the QBs coming out next year.

Mike Williams- Talent with little positional competition gives him a high ceiling. But, character concerns give him a very low floor. A very wide possible range of production.

Gresham- Ochocinco can draw coverage, but lacks big-play ability. A plethora of WRs (Antonio Bryant, Dez Briscoe, Jordan Shipley, Andre Caldwell) can potentially line up opposite, but injury, rookie and character concerns abound. Gresham has the vertical speed to be a downfield weapon- depending on Bryant's head and knees, perhaps the only one.

I'm much more willing to draft Gresham's higher floor with very good ceiling to Williams' extremely wide differential between his potential upper-level production and his bust chance. You know Gresham will produce- you hope Williams will. Gresham's ceiling is near Williams', but his floor is MUCH higher.


Kareighuis, I love reading your thoughts on players. I love them because for the most part I completely disagree with them. We are so completely polar opposite on nearly every topic I actually get really excited when I see your posts. Not that one of us is right and one is wrong, good or bad, smart or stupid; but our strategies must be so different that they end up working in spite of having differing views.

I find that nothing short of amazing. Seriously. I know my track record and I suspect most people on this board dominate their local leagues too.


I'm curious, any parts in this post you disagree with? I put out a lot of opinions in this post, some of which I think more strongly than others.

The general idea is, when picking early in a draft (dynasty or redraft), take the guy you're more certain will produce, regardless of position and needs.

Oh, and in listing Cincinnati's WR options, I failed to mention Jerome Simpson. He has big-play speed, but that hasn't translated.

I'm willing to bet someone who doesn't like Gresham (injury issues; Cincy has one of the smallest scouting departments, leading them sometimes to overlook/miss character/injury issues) would prefer Gronkowski. New England, I think, would much more thorough about investigating his back problems than Cincinnati.


As I've mentioned a few times during these polls I think you focus too much on this single year and not enough on what the poll asks: the long term outlook of players. Again, I tend to try to accumulate real talent and focus very little on what they'll produce in their rookie year. To me, Gresham probably has a pretty decent ability to produce in his first year, but thinking in 4 years that someone will pick him over most (or any) of these other guys seems ridiculous to me. Especially since I believe both Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez will end up being better in the TE space both now and long term.

But to iterate over your points:

You mentioned Gerhart and Dwyer having the physique to play FB (ok, you said it led many to think they should play this instead of you directly saying it). According to their Combine stats, Gerhart is 6' 0" and 231 and Dwyer is 5' 11" and 229. The average starting FB in the league is between 6' 0" and 6' 1" and weighs 247 pounds. As a matter of fact, there were only 3 starting FBs under 231. Both Gerhart and Dwyer ran sub 4.6 40s (Gerhart was a 4.53 officially) but I'd bet most of the FBs in the league can't break 4.7 at best. With 3,500+ college rushing yards I find it tough to say Gerhart is "at best a backup". Mendenhall not only had just one "breakout" season in his college career, but has relatively stunk in his first year in the NFL. So far *he* has shown he isn't starting material.

You also mentioned that Chad Ochocinco "lacks big play ability"; I find that very difficult to read without wondering if you think it's him or Carson Palmer. I think you're reading too much into the numbers and not into the player as Chad has had eight 1,000+ yard 7+ TD seasons in nine years (2008 he was injured and was the only outlier). You mention that Gresham has the "vertical speed to be a downfield weapon" but posted a 4.73 40 time in the combine. That is *not* speed and I suspect every single one of those WRs you mentioned could post a better time. And yes, while 40 speed isn't indicative of "game speed" (although you mentioned vertical threat which would be 40 time), his 3-cone of 7.07 was the slowest of the TEs who participated at the combine.

You said Clausen is "not elite, not guaranteed to even start" which again shows you're only looking at this year or seriously underestimating Clausen's ability. I still think he'll end up starting this year as well--Matt Moore is a serviceable QB at best and people have quickly forgotten that while he looked ok at the end of last year, he still didn't average 200 yards passing a game. And this was with a true #1 WR in Steve Smith and a fantastic running game (ranked #3 in rushing in 2009) which should have set up the pass effectively.

I'd actually kind of agree with the LaFell comments, but disagree with a "low floor" on Mike Williams.

Anyway, you see the point. If you were forced to pick a player and couldn't use them for 2 years I seriously believe all of your picks so far would be different, meaning you've kind of missed the point of the exercise here. But I've already mentioned that a few times now...
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Re: Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Postby Kareighuis » Thu Jun 17, 2010 4:07 am

biju wrote:As I've mentioned a few times during these polls I think you focus too much on this single year and not enough on what the poll asks: the long term outlook of players. Again, I tend to try to accumulate real talent and focus very little on what they'll produce in their rookie year. To me, Gresham probably has a pretty decent ability to produce in his first year, but thinking in 4 years that someone will pick him over most (or any) of these other guys seems ridiculous to me. Especially since I believe both Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez will end up being better in the TE space both now and long term.

But to iterate over your points:

You mentioned Gerhart and Dwyer having the physique to play FB (ok, you said it led many to think they should play this instead of you directly saying it). According to their Combine stats, Gerhart is 6' 0" and 231 and Dwyer is 5' 11" and 229. The average starting FB in the league is between 6' 0" and 6' 1" and weighs 247 pounds. As a matter of fact, there were only 3 starting FBs under 231. Both Gerhart and Dwyer ran sub 4.6 40s (Gerhart was a 4.53 officially) but I'd bet most of the FBs in the league can't break 4.7 at best. With 3,500+ college rushing yards I find it tough to say Gerhart is "at best a backup". Mendenhall not only had just one "breakout" season in his college career, but has relatively stunk in his first year in the NFL. So far *he* has shown he isn't starting material.

You also mentioned that Chad Ochocinco "lacks big play ability"; I find that very difficult to read without wondering if you think it's him or Carson Palmer. I think you're reading too much into the numbers and not into the player as Chad has had eight 1,000+ yard 7+ TD seasons in nine years (2008 he was injured and was the only outlier). You mention that Gresham has the "vertical speed to be a downfield weapon" but posted a 4.73 40 time in the combine. That is *not* speed and I suspect every single one of those WRs you mentioned could post a better time. And yes, while 40 speed isn't indicative of "game speed" (although you mentioned vertical threat which would be 40 time), his 3-cone of 7.07 was the slowest of the TEs who participated at the combine.

You said Clausen is "not elite, not guaranteed to even start" which again shows you're only looking at this year or seriously underestimating Clausen's ability. I still think he'll end up starting this year as well--Matt Moore is a serviceable QB at best and people have quickly forgotten that while he looked ok at the end of last year, he still didn't average 200 yards passing a game. And this was with a true #1 WR in Steve Smith and a fantastic running game (ranked #3 in rushing in 2009) which should have set up the pass effectively.

I'd actually kind of agree with the LaFell comments, but disagree with a "low floor" on Mike Williams.

Anyway, you see the point. If you were forced to pick a player and couldn't use them for 2 years I seriously believe all of your picks so far would be different, meaning you've kind of missed the point of the exercise here. But I've already mentioned that a few times now...


(man I was just about to go to sleep. Then, I get this thoroughly detailed response.)

"As I've mentioned a few times during these polls I think you focus too much on this single year and not enough on what the poll asks: the long term outlook of players."- I'm a big fan of CJ Spiller. I actually ranked him 2nd this year and was very happy he was there for me at 1.04 in a recent Cafe dynasty draft. His situation sucks this year, maybe next, maybe after that. At worst, though, he'll flee Buffalo when his rookie contract ends. Situations can change, talent doesn't. Some people were really high on Ben Tate, some even talking of taking him as early as 1.02, but no way would I take him before Spiller, Mathews, Best or Bryant.
I've actually admonished others not to overweigh short-term considerations in dynasty leagues.

Gerhart- Calling Gerhart a backup to one of the best RBs in the game isn't an insult. However, his limited elusiveness, combined with his upright running style (exposing himself to hits, creating fumbling issues at the next level), give me pause. Not saying he can't overcome these issues, but I'm likely not willing to take that gamble. The current coaching regime hasn't coached the running style issue out of Peterson.

Dwyer- I can understand doubting Mendenhall- I refused a trade offer last year where Mendy was a throw-in. However, to say he "has shown he isn't starting material" is, to use your phrase, "ridiculous to me". I don't think Dwyer will have the opportunity to get the majority of his team's carries in the 4-year range we're focusing on. I'm less certain of his NFL prospects, but I haven't read anything to cast doubt on his learning ability (and corresponding ability to transfer from the triple-post). Also still uncertain of Mendenhall's future- constant rumors last year of a questionable work ethic still fresh in my mind.

Ochocinco- perhaps I should have phrased "lacks big play ability" differently. Carson and Chad have a great connection and Palmer had few targets beyond Ochocinco- Caldwell started well but couldn't sustain, Cincy lost over half it's TEs before the season started and Simpson has struggled to translate his skills to the NFL. Translation- Ochocinco's yardage and TD totals are the result of a lack of passing options.

Looking at his numbers this way- yards after catch per reception. Basically charts a WR tackle-breaking skills and all that. Ochocinco was tied for 79th, alongside elusiveness-impaired possession WRs like Houshmandzadeh and downfield jumpballers like VJax and Fitz. Derrick Mason and Eddie Royal got more YAC/rec.
Combine that by looking at y/rec- Chad's 14.5 ranked him 33rd. The way I would interpret that combo of 14.5 y/rec and 3.3 YAC/rec is that he operates in a functional offense with a quality QB but has limited elusiveness/tackle-breaking. Kinda disturbing that Mason's 14.1 y/rec and 3.7 are so similar to Chad's.

Clausen- He isn't elite. The fact that he isn't guaranteed to start is significant in this exercise, where we're considering who's likely to produce the most over the next 4 years. Clausen can't produce on the bench- the first half of this season, all of 2010, whatever. If Clausen is on the bench next year, but then is named the starter by a new coach, then that's a factor in determining his production over the next 4 years. Given Fox's inclination for veterans, I wouldn't write off Matt Moore so easily. Also remember, while Moore was starting, DeAngelo Williams was out for 3 of the final 5 games and limited in one of those 5. Even Jonathan Stewart was limited for one of those 5 games. The running game wasn't what it was 2008.

LS2- Mike Williams' floor is determined by his field time. If his snap count is reduced because of injuries, or limited knowledge of the playbook, or the coaches not being willing to start 2 rookies at WR with a 2nd year QB, then his floor is rather low. Another issue that could drive down his floor is character issues like arguing with his coach. It's the reason that players like Larry Fitzgerald would go high in redrafts over the last few years- while some though his ceiling wasn't as high as others, his higher floor (and the corresponding near certainty in his production) drew drafters. If a player isn't producing because the coaches don't trust him and won't put him on the field, then the result is the same. I spoke with too wide a brush- his character issues could potentially lead coaches to reduce his snap count and thus his production. If he's suspended or he quits on the team, it's the same thing as not being the most talented WR and being the WR3 or worse on his team. I can imagine Williams being a Ron Artest type- a reasonable comparison in light of his measurables and history. But, that's almost an ideal.

Looking at your rhetorical questions- for this year, I'd probably go with Marshall (over Gates) and definitely Austin (over Finley). But the ceiling is only one thing I take into consideration. The floor is another. Otherwise, each pick is a home-run swing. You could hit big or miss big. At the beginning of a draft, I'm merely trying to get on base.

My response is hampered by this exercise, where we aren't to draft based on a specific roster. Generally, I'm inclined to players with higher floors- I want certainty in production. If I had a well-stocked roster (like VJax, Boldin and Nicks I have in another dynasty), then a Mike Williams would make a good gamble. Without any roster in mind, then Gresham makes a good short-term (4 year) choice.
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Re: Who is the #12 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts?

Postby LS2throwed » Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:11 am

Kareighuis wrote:
LS2- Mike Williams' floor is determined by his field time. If his snap count is reduced because of injuries, or limited knowledge of the playbook, or the coaches not being willing to start 2 rookies at WR with a 2nd year QB, then his floor is rather low.



What evidence is there of this though? Reducing snap count due to injuries is purely speculative, he has no injury history or concerns at all. Limited knowledge of the playbook? That's the first I've heard of this from him ever, and nobody has ever stated it was a problem for him. I guess I just don't understand where these concerns you have are related to Williams, they really don't have anything to do with him, or character issues themselves don't relate to those....Coaches not being willing to start two rookies at WR with a 2nd year QB? If that's the case I can guarantee you Arrellious Benn is the odd man out who was picked first in this exercise, and rookie drafts. Here's a few blurbs on Williams to this point:


According to NFL.com's Steve Wyche, the Bucs "have big plans" for rookie wide receiver Mike Williams.
Wyche attended the Bucs' recent round of OTAs, and notes that Williams is "the more vertical threat" in comparison to second-round pick Arrelious Benn. At this point, we're beginning to like Williams' fantasy prospects for 2009 and beyond better than those of Benn. Williams is a superior natural talent.
Source: NFL.com



Fourth-rounder Mike Williams was ranked as the second-best receiver in the draft by "some at One Buc Place."
We're guessing Dez Bryant was first on the Bucs' board. Williams is a first-round talent who dropped only due to character concerns. If he walks the line in Tampa, Williams may even have a better chance for an instant impact than second-rounder Arrelious Benn.
Source: St. Petersburg Times



Then you have this on both since you said they may not start both rookies:



ESPN.com NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas believes rookies Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams will start as a tandem "barring a totally disastrous training camp."
GM Mark Dominik admitted as much after the draft, noting that Williams was a first-round talent. Benn already appears slotted in as the split end, and Williams will join him as the flanker if he manages to stay out of trouble this summer. The Bucs have done well to upgrade Josh Freeman's weapons, pushing Sammie Stroughter into his ideal slot role.
Source: ESPN.com




Even without that last quote, who else would start? Mark Clayton? They pretty much have no choice but to start two rookies, and Williams is much more polished while Benn is the bigger project and also been battling injury issues where he's missed time.




Another issue that could drive down his floor is character issues like arguing with his coach. It's the reason that players like Larry Fitzgerald would go high in redrafts over the last few years- while some though his ceiling wasn't as high as others, his higher floor (and the corresponding near certainty in his production) drew drafters.




I don't think anyone ever doubted Fitz's immense ceiling, he was an amazing talent in College and showed superior elite WR skills. Me personally I don't think arguing with a Coach is something that ever made a player any worse of a talent especially at WR. Brandon Marshall has immense character concerns, argues with his coah, beats up his girlfriend, but he's still a legit WR1 talent.




If a player isn't producing because the coaches don't trust him and won't put him on the field, then the result is the same. I spoke with too wide a brush- his character issues could potentially lead coaches to reduce his snap count and thus his production.



They have already stated they have big plans, will start right away, and there has been nothing to suggest is there that would reduce his snap count, really just seems like assuming.




Looking at your rhetorical questions- for this year, I'd probably go with Marshall (over Gates) and definitely Austin (over Finley). But the ceiling is only one thing I take into consideration. The floor is another. Otherwise, each pick is a home-run swing. You could hit big or miss big. At the beginning of a draft, I'm merely trying to get on base.

My response is hampered by this exercise, where we aren't to draft based on a specific roster. Generally, I'm inclined to players with higher floors- I want certainty in production. If I had a well-stocked roster (like VJax, Boldin and Nicks I have in another dynasty), then a Mike Williams would make a good gamble. Without any roster in mind, then Gresham makes a good short-term (4 year) choice.




I guess that's where we differ. I'm not trying to just get on base, I'm trying to hit a homerun in the 1st round no matter where that pick is.


Does anyone remember who the "safest" pick was at WR last year? Brian Robiske. Everyone(including me so I'm not talking about everyone else) felt he would be the safest bet for rookie production early on and at the very least would be a solid pick. Now while he can still be a good player as he's only been in the league 1 year he didn't do crap as a rookie. I want the player who has the highest ceiling available to come away with the best talent, and Williams is as talented as they come.


If you look at him and see a guy who could disrupt a football team, quit, etc you probably should pass, but there have been guys with way bigger concerns then him. It's not like the guy has been arrested before. Also if you magnify his character concerns, or any negatives of a player, I think you have got to magnify the fact that Gresham has tore both of his knees up before which really deflates explosiveness, and long term value.


I'd also prefer Jimmy Graham or Aaron Hernandez 2 rounds later. What WR could we get 2 rounds later with the upside of Williams? I don't think there is one.
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