Win now and later??

[Wolfpac11680]

I'm in a standard scoring, 10 team Yahoo league (QB, WR,WR,RB,TE, RB/WR, K, Def) with 1/2 ppr and we have 2 keepers.

I have the #3 overall pick and I am keeping Frank Gore and Reggie Wayne. I have 2 solid keepers and with 3 picks in the first 2 rounds I should be able to field a competitive if not championship worthy team (possible players available are Calvin Johnson, Micheal Turner).

But with age and injury concerns to both Gore and Wayne I'm thinking about drafting a young RB as a long term keeper moving forward (Ryan Mathews and Shonn Greene). Based on this back and forth do I draft a young RB or go with a proven player in a more "win now" approach?

Thanks - leave a link back

[Indibuck]

With keeper leagues, my mantra is to win now but keep an eye to the future.

Only keeping 2 players, I would go with best available player at that spot.

Besides rookies, who are the 3 best available players after the keepers?

[Wolfpac11680]

So given my current status how would you rank the following players

- Shonne Green
- Ryan Mathews
- Micheal Turner
- Calvin Johnson

[Indibuck]

So given my current status how would you rank the following players

- Shonne Green
- Ryan Mathews
- Micheal Turner
- Calvin Johnson

You said 1/2 point PPR... but none of the RBs seem to be candidates to do much with receiving, albeit the Matthews situation has more to do with Darren Sproles' presence.

I rank them:
Turner
Greene
Matthews



Calvin

Give yourself that 2nd elite RB to go along with Wayne and then take best available player with your 2 2nd round picks, making sure at least one of those is a WR.

[RBManiac]

i rank

1. turner
Tie Mattews, green( only on mattews situation)
If V-jax and mcneil do decide to hold out. I rank green higher.
I think greenes production will be slightly higher this year, but the long term value of mattews makes this and even tie to me

4. Calvin

[thriftyrocker]

Given it's 1/2 PPR and you only need to start 1 RB, I'd rank it

1. Calvin




2. Mathews
3. Greene
4. Turner

I think you grab the superstar whenever you can, and that's Calvin.

You will be able to find youth at RB in the late 3rd or 4th round. Guys like Moreno, Felix, and Best are great pickups in that area. They should be respectable RB2, and they have a chance to breakout and be top 7 or 8 RBs and great keepers.

[Indibuck]

Given it's 1/2 PPR and you only need to start 1 RB, I'd rank it

1. Calvin




2. Mathews
3. Greene
4. Turner

I think you grab the superstar whenever you can, and that's Calvin.

You will be able to find youth at RB in the late 3rd or 4th round. Guys like Moreno, Felix, and Best are great pickups in that area. They should be respectable RB2, and they have a chance to breakout and be top 7 or 8 RBs and great keepers.

I looked at some ranges for stat projections of Turner vs. Calvin.

Calvin == 70-75 catches, 1050-1200 yards, 6-9 TDs.
points corresponding to those stats (taking averages of that): 36 + 112 + 45 = 193 points projected.

Turner == 7-12 catches for 30-70 yards, 1150 - 1300 rushing yards, 9-13 TDs.
points corresponding to those stats (again using averages): 9 + 5 + 122 + 77 = 203 points.

I know everyone works off of their own stat projections (or uses someone elses'), but it's safe to argue that they will score about the same amount.

So now you have to look at positional scarcity. What I mean by that is total number of impact players at a position. RBs that are true bellcows like Turner are extremely rare -- that's why they are typically 1st or early 2nd round picks, even in a full PPR.

And because you can start 2 RBs with the flex, that means you take that 2nd RB to pair with Gore and Wayne.

[RBManiac]

well if this is ppr than i rank calvin higher of course

[thriftyrocker]

Turner == 7-12 catches for 30-70 yards, 1150 - 1300 rushing yards, 9-13 TDs.
points corresponding to those stats (again using averages): 9 + 5 + 122 + 77 = 203 points.

If those are your expected stats for Turner, take Mathews.

Norv says Mathews will get 250 carries and 40 receptions. That's about 1400 total yards. Total points around 250. Plus Mathews will still have value for 5+ years unless he fails or blows a knee.

Take Calvin if you think he will be a top 3 WR over the next 7+ years. Take Turner if you think he will be a top 2 RB next year. Take Mathews if you don't believe either of those things.

[Wolfpac11680]

Thanks for the great feedback. I think my head is leaning more towards Greene and Mathews. I'm a fan of Turner and Calvin (I had to throw Calvin back in to keep Wayne and Gore), but Turners age and Calvin's complete inconsistancy are pushing me towards the 2 young RBs.

Now I just need to see what happens in camp and flip a coin over Greene and Mathews.

Thanks