Indibuck wrote:I love Spiller the RB... but I hate his current situation. Even if Lynch moves on, he's still stuck behind Fred Jackson. I think BUF will try to be creative in ways to get him the ball, but I think his ceiling is a little lower in that offense.
I know conventional wisdom puts Spiller into the top-5, but that's the same CW that made Darren McFadden the top rookie pick a few years ago. And while I am not calling the Bills the Raiders, there are some similarities between the situations. Buyer beware on Spiller.
I don't think McFadden is a bust due to situation. Michael Bush averaged 4.8 YPC in the same situation. I think McFadden was a bust because he had skills to be a great college RB but they didn't translate to the NFL. He had the speed but not the elusiveness or power.
I think Spiller doesn't have those problems. I know some disagree. He didn't broad jump at the combine (which is the best indication of leg power and burst) but the 10'6" he did at his pro day beats all other rookie RBs. He's not a one-trick pony kicking it to the outside all the time. McFadden might have been.
I don't think Buffalo is a terrible situation. Even so, I think you have to take talent over situation in rookie drafts, especially early. Taking situation over talent causes Chris Johnson and Ray Rice to drop. It causes Jamaal Charles to not just drop but plummet. If you "love Spiller the RB" I think you have to take him top 4 regardless of other issues. Unless you love Tate and Hardesty more.
I agree with the part that McFadden's issues are not all due to situation... but I submit that in a different offense, he probably puts up better numbers. OAK has been horrible since he was drafted. The lack of a passing game really took away McFadden's outside runs, which, like you said, is his game.
You don't think that Buffalo is a terrible situation? What is there to like about it? The OL is fair at best; whomever "wins" the QB position is a bottom-5 starting QB in the NFL; at WR you have Evans and a big "?" at the other spots; you still have Jackson in front of Spiller. The immediate future doesn't look so bright to me, and I think it's going to be really tough to count on any kind of consistent production from Spiller over the next couple of years.
Maybe BUF settles on a starting QB early and camp reports are positive, maybe Spiller really wows the coaches in camp and earns more touches -- then he moves back into my top-5. Not until then.
Indibuck wrote:You don't think that Buffalo is a terrible situation? What is there to like about it? The OL is fair at best; whomever "wins" the QB position is a bottom-5 starting QB in the NFL; at WR you have Evans and a big "?" at the other spots; you still have Jackson in front of Spiller. The immediate future doesn't look so bright to me, and I think it's going to be really tough to count on any kind of consistent production from Spiller over the next couple of years.
I know CW is Buffalo is a bad situation. But
1) Cold weather team means they will be running in November and December 2) No offensive firepower and no quality QB means they will try to play ball control 3) OL was good enough to let a career backup avg 4.5 YPC last year on over 230 carries. 4) There's just nothing else in Buffalo. Getting a long run from Spiller is their best chance on offense.
It turns out Cleveland and KC were very good situations for RBs last year. Much better than good offenses who could fall back on the pass game.
I predict bills are going to sign Sage Rosenfels by the start of the season. I just have that itch.
Only way im interested in bills players this year is if he is signed.
other than that, i think all the horrible teams last year will do a bit better as far as fantasy is concerned. Raiders got Campbell, well...anything is better than russell i wont even capitalize russell's name anymore. what im saying is how can raiders do worse? Before 2009 raiders actually had a great run game going. 5th in the league is rushing...this year they have really stacked up their defense. with Campbell on board i say they go back to 2008 rushing where rookie Mcfadden had some really impressive games before he went down. I just dont know whos going to benefit more..Bush or Dmac ?
im going a little off subject here, but I also think Lions, and Rams will do a hell of alot better this year fantasy wise as well. Rams solved some problems with pass protection, signed a stud rookie QB, and now they have a healthy Avery. I say they win 5-6 games this year and the rest they will be trailing so its pass all day. AVERY HERE I COME BABY..YOUR MINE IN THE DRAFT THIS YEAR
I agree with thrifty that you take talent over situation in a dynasty league. I personally think that Spiller is the most talented rookie this year. I think that his value is much higher in a PPR league. I see him being very active in the passing game and it wouldn't shock me if caught 60 balls this year. I know the Bills are a mess now, but we have witnessed NFL teams turn it around pretty quickly. Take Miami and Atlanta for example, they were mess and then made the playoffs when nobody saw it coming. I am not confident in the Bills turning it around but you never know. I would not let spiller slip past me at #3, but that is just my 2 cents.
thriftyrocker wrote:If you plan on taking Tate at 1.3, you really have to offer 1.3 to the 1.5 owner for 1.5 and 2.5. I understand taking "your guy" for a variety of reasons, but no one is thinking Tate at 1.3. You should be able to get a lot to trade out of the top 4, even if it is just to #5.
Exactly what I was thinking when reading this. Taking Tate just handed on a platter some nice players for your competition. If that is who you took you should have traded down to 5. 2 players should have been drafted before him and you had a reason not to draft them.
I am high on Tate but think he might not produce this year due to tough comp. But 1:03 is too early to take him
Cowboys 4 life
(Past Year: 930)
Joined: 18 Jul 2005
Yards this season: 2,233
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Somewhere between Silicon Valley and a bunch of Fruits
Spiller was picked at 1.04. To elaborate why I didn't even have him on my top five is bascially I also look at the colleges and their (recent) history of preparing players to play in the NFL. Clemson is just plain questionable (at this point).....and maybe Spiller will turn that around but until then. Tate comes from Auburn and good consistant history from there to the NFL. For me, as well as the offensive situation in Houston, this leaned me toward Tate (not to mention I have Foster, so may the best rb win the starting job).
Now Hardesty is slightly different in that he's one of Holgram's first draft picks. Don't care what anyone says, Mangini may be Cleveland's coach, but Holgram will 'mystrow' that offense and he has 'great' history drafting rb's for 'his' offense.......I'll take my chances....
BTW, did trade my 1.12 pick for a 2011 #1 and the 2.08 pick this year. Can't help but look ahead....lol And they'll be someone there at 2.08 that I can use.....trust me......
Thanks (again) for all the responses, view points, tidbits of info, etc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hardesty dropped all the way to 10th? I know it's PPR, but this is a bit of a surprise. May I ask how the first 9 picks played out?
Almost embarassed to tell you, but the reason why is three qb's were taken in the first six picks......Tebow (1.01), Bradford (1.06), & Clausen (1.05)......now granted these teams each do/did need a qb, BUT not in the top six.....well, guess where these teams will be drafting next year, too..........lol