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Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

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Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Kareighuis » Fri Jun 25, 2010 2:03 pm

Adrian Peterson has a physical running style that caused him numerous injuries in college. The severity of his injury issues haven't carried over to the NFL. However, it has given him some minor issues, in addition to his fumbling problems.

Now, a recent post here on FFC makes me think the issue is more than just fumbling/injuries-

mattb47 wrote:There is a reason that RBs have a very short life in the NFL and even further reasons why the big banging RBs who run physically tend to have an even SHORTER life. It's because that wear and tear breaks your body down...consider that ADP has run like that all the way through college and now 3 years in the NFL and has been injured multiple times (albeit some freak injuries but those are more likely to happen with the way he plays) and it's not simply increasing "minor percentages" and completely unpredictable.

The chances are rather high with a guy like Peterson who runs the way he does that he's not going to have a real long, productive NFL career because the beating he's going to take is going to have its toll quicker than most other guys... But there's a reason why RBs have such a short shelf life and with their chances of getting hurt already higher than most, ADP is near the top of guys with the highest chances of that happening to with how many harder hits and hits overall he takes per game.


Given the beating Peterson's gotten over the last 6 years (college and pros) is it time to start planning to trade Adrian Peterson in dynasty leagues?
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:02 pm

That was a great post by Matt. And you can definitely justify selling him high in dynasty leagues this year. Simply because RBs have a shorter shelf life than other premium fantasy positions, like QB and WR, turnover of the top RBs is going to happen at a faster rate than those other positions. If you have a RB who's on top, most of the time it's a good long term move to trade him for a talented younger RB with less wear and tear.

At the same time, there are clear differences between AD and the typical bruising RB. What has made AD so good to this point is his combination of strength, speed, and elusiveness. He can run through, around, or past defenders. Most power RBs are effective at pushing the pile and gaining that extra yard with their strength. AD can do this but he doesn't need to. He's also improving in the passing game which will help extend his productive career.

Another factor is the abuse he delivers. I can't think of many other RBs who DELIVER as many punishing hits as he does to defenders. A lot of the time he ends a run harder than the defender that opposes him. Does delivering hits take as much of a toll as receiving them does? I don't know that we have enough evidence to accurately answer that question.

Will AD maintain elite production into his 30's? Chances are slim. Does he have a good chance to maintain it for a few more seasons? I think so.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby LS2throwed » Sat Jun 26, 2010 8:01 pm

Trade him and get what? If someone was offereing a deal giving me an elite #1 WR that last long like say Andre Johnson I'd give it some thought if I had RB depth, otherwise I'm not trading an elite type of talent at RB who is a workhorse, his floor is probably last year which is 1800 yards and 18 TD's, and he's a special talent that doesn't come around very often. Point being, I'm not going to trade him just because "big banging RB's tend to get hurt faster".


It is true, but I think it's rather silly to be trying to trade a guy to guess when he might get hurt. He's 25 years old, there is no reason he can't have 4 more years of top RB production in him at least before injuries catch up. Injuries and carries etc start catching up to guys late in their 20's and early in their 30's, not when their an incredible physical specimen and 25 years old.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Free Bagel » Sat Jun 26, 2010 11:51 pm

The injuries Adrian Peterson has suffered in the entirety of his college and pro career are a sprained ankle, a broken collarbone, and sprained knee. None of these are the nagging type (which is seen even more by the fact that none of them bothered him in future seasons, and all are several years old at this point with no current effects), and none are indicative of his running style. Even the broken collarbone happened when he was doing a flip into the endzone as celebration, not when he took a big hit or anything.

It's not like he's suffering from repeated separated shoulders or chronic back issues like you might expect out of a guy that initiates a lot of contact.

LS2throwed wrote:Trade him and get what? If someone was offereing a deal giving me an elite #1 WR that last long like say Andre Johnson


Even Andre Johnson is 29. Given that Reggie Wayne is considered an "old guy" with decreased trade value right now at age 31, I don't see why anyone would expect AJ to last much longer than AD does. If AD breaks down four years from now, do we really think AJ is going to be in much better a state?
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Sun Jun 27, 2010 1:53 am

The goal of a Dynasty is still to win it all. Getting too caught up in the build for the future will keep you building for the future. AD is an amazing talent that will carry a team to the playoffs. I wouldn't trade him until its evident he is on the down fall. I'm willing to take the value hit later for solid production now.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby moochman » Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:13 pm

If one could get appropriate value for him, I think the time is now to trade APF. As previously mentioned, his running style will wear on him, and his other injuries suggest no immunity to injury. The things to look at are the wear and tear may not shelf him, as Bagel said, but they sure could slow him down. Few RBs in this league can stand to lose a half a step or the will to hit the hole hard. These could become issues for APF as the punishment accumulates.
Another worry would be in the QB instability in Minnysoda. Ds will love not having a Favre there to keep them honest. Stacked lines are not a bruising RBs friend.
This year Favre should return and the departure of Chester Taylor should mean a great year for APF. If your team isn't on track for a title, selling high on APF is the smart play.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby mattb47 » Sun Jun 27, 2010 5:03 pm

While this particular debate was not necessarily the point of that post...I think that it wouldn't be crazy to think that trading him now could be a good way to go as I don't know that his value will ever be any higher than it is right now. I mean you can grab a whole bunch for him from the right owner and RBs do tend to have a shorter shelf life, especially RBs who seem to "seek" contact rather than only taking hits when they have to.

While it may not be a foregone conclusion that ADP will get hurt this year or even within the next few years, I think you're just kidding yourself if you think that his running style and such does not contribute to an increased chance and opportunity of injury occurring and that it also wears down on him as a runner and his efficiency as such over time. I mean just look at his efficiency each successive year since he's been in the league...his YPC has been steadily dropping each season and even last year he had fewer touches and a better passing game which would normally lead to being more fresh and openings in the running game he sustained another drop in his YPC from the previous season.

You can already see that he doesn't look as dominant as he did his rookie year...I mean that year and even a couple years ago you really didn't shut him down that often as he eclipsed the 100 yard mark in 10 of 16 games and over the 75 yard mark in all but 1 game that year. Compare that to last season when he had just 3 games over 100 yards and 10 games over 75 while being held under 3 ypc in 3 games and under 4 ypc in 9 of the games last year. Know how many times he was held under 4 ypc in 2008? Just twice and only once under 3 ypc. The TDs went up but that's more to do with the quality of the offense you're on in his case than an increase in his effectiveness.

Just some things to ponder.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Wenchtamer » Sun Jun 27, 2010 5:31 pm

I think next year would be better. He'll have (barring some freak injury) the same value. And you'll have gotten to use him for another year.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby LS2throwed » Sun Jun 27, 2010 5:41 pm

I just don't think it's time to be considering or thinking about a Rb getting injured at age 25. Look at a guy like Clinton Portis, he didn't really start to break down until 28 years old, that would mean 3 more highly productive years out of AD before a hit in production. I'm all for getting value in a guy, but I think it's way too early to be thinking about it.


I own AD in 1 dynasty, I was all for moving him last year because my team was crap and I was rebuilding, If your a contending team, I just don't see the need, or urgency to be considering this now.


Maybe he won't have a terribly long career, but since when do guys like him start falling off a cliff at 25? I I'm trying to get max value out of my guy before he does get hurt, but right now he's bound to give your team the best chance to win for the next 3 years more then pretty much anyone else.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Sun Jun 27, 2010 5:41 pm

You also need to consider the role the Vikings offensive line has played in the decline of his efficiency. Losing Matt Birk certainly has contributed to the drop in his YPC. Birk was not only a very talented lineman but also a great leader. The Vikings offensive line had a lot to do with why AD was so good in his rookie season. From that point it has steadily been getting worse. Hutch isn't as dominant as he once was, Birk wasn't himself in 2008 then they lost him via free agency which only hurt their line as a unit further.

Last year, AD simply didn't have as much room as he did in his rookie season. His drop in efficiency isn't all on him. The right side of their line simply wasn't good on a regular basis last. As a unit their o-line isn't nearly as dominant as it once was.
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