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Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Free Bagel » Sun Jun 27, 2010 5:48 pm

mattb47 wrote:While it may not be a foregone conclusion that ADP will get hurt this year or even within the next few years, I think you're just kidding yourself if you think that his running style and such does not contribute to an increased chance and opportunity of injury occurring and that it also wears down on him as a runner and his efficiency as such over time. I mean just look at his efficiency each successive year since he's been in the league...his YPC has been steadily dropping each season and even last year he had fewer touches and a better passing game which would normally lead to being more fresh and openings in the running game he sustained another drop in his YPC from the previous season.

You can already see that he doesn't look as dominant as he did his rookie year...I mean that year and even a couple years ago you really didn't shut him down that often as he eclipsed the 100 yard mark in 10 of 16 games and over the 75 yard mark in all but 1 game that year. Compare that to last season when he had just 3 games over 100 yards and 10 games over 75 while being held under 3 ypc in 3 games and under 4 ypc in 9 of the games last year. Know how many times he was held under 4 ypc in 2008? Just twice and only once under 3 ypc. The TDs went up but that's more to do with the quality of the offense you're on in his case than an increase in his effectiveness.

Just some things to ponder.


I would say his decreasing ypc has a LOT more to do with Minnesota going from having a top 5 run blocking O-line during his rookie season to a bottom 5 run blocking line this past year. People don't seem to realize how pitifully awful Minnesota's run blocking was last year. Chester Taylor, widely considered to be a solid NFL running back, averaged 3.5ypc behind the same line even with the nice boosts he got from 3rd and 16 draw plays (Chester averaged 3.1ypc on 1st and 2nd down, when he wasn't getting draw plays in obvious passing situations). There were no holes in Minnesota last year. I'm not saying that as hyperbole. You think of a run play and you think of a running back running through a hole into the second level where the linebackers are. That very normal occurence happened VERY rarely last year in Minnesota, it was typically just a wall. The fact that Peterson averaged 4.4ypc last year behind that line is a testament to just how good he is. Even LT had seasons where he averaged less than 4ypc with lines that were not as bad as Minnesota's was in '09.

Also, this is the second thread today where I've heard people talking about the passing game "opening up" the run game for FF purposes. To me, this is pure theorycraft that doesn't really have much real world application, nor do any statistics actually back it up. Like many things in football, it sounds good on paper, but does it translate to real life? Tennessee, Jacksonville, Baltimore, New York (Jets), San Francisco, Miami, St Louis, Carolina, Kansas City. These are where the top FF running backs came from last year. If they have one thing in common, it's that NONE of them are teams that had very good passing games and almost all of them had poor, or even VERY poor passing games.

Football stats don't work as a bell curve. They go up, they go down, players go through "slumps", etc. Ladainian Tomlinson, a workhorse himself, saw his ypc drop from 5.3ypc in 2003 to 3.9 in 2004. Was he "declining"? Of course not, and he followed it up with 1800/20 in 2005. Later, he went through by far the worst 8 game stretch of his career to finish a season with a ypc under 4 in six of his last eight games (similar to Peterson's finish this year). Was he "declining"? Of course not, and the next year he followed it up with 2300 yards and 31 touchdowns at 5.2ypc.

Players don't decline at 25. That's just silly. The only players that drop off at an age that young are guys that were just never very good to begin with and are no longer held up by their situation.

I disagree that Peterson's value is as high as it will ever be. To the contrary, I think that right now it's the lowest it will be for quite some time. He's a top 3 running back. Last year at this time his value was as high as LT's was during his prime. That is, not "just" a top running back, but a guy that people were willing to trade away their whole team for.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby mattb47 » Sun Jun 27, 2010 5:58 pm

jake_twothousandfive wrote:You also need to consider the role the Vikings offensive line has played in the decline of his efficiency. Losing Matt Birk certainly has contributed to the drop in his YPC. Birk was not only a very talented lineman but also a great leader. The Vikings offensive line had a lot to do with why AD was so good in his rookie season. From that point it has steadily been getting worse. Hutch isn't as dominant as he once was, Birk wasn't himself in 2008 then they lost him via free agency which only hurt their line as a unit further.

Last year, AD simply didn't have as much room as he did in his rookie season. His drop in efficiency isn't all on him. The right side of their line simply wasn't good on a regular basis last. As a unit their o-line isn't nearly as dominant as it once was.


While that's true that losing Birk hasn't helped his cause, I'm not quite as ready to shift all of the blame away from ADP and onto the offensive line. I'm not saying that ADP is dropping off a cliff right now and is done performing at an elite level, I'm just saying there are some things to consider when you're looking at his future especially in a dynasty type league. His style of running is very violent and RBs already have shorter lifespans in the NFL than most other positions which is why when someone like an Emmitt Smith or even someone like LT have careers that span so long where they produce at such a high level it is something amazing, not something that happens often. Many great RBs careers have been cut short because they've gotten hurt, is that going to happen here? Who knows, I sure hope not as I love to watch him play but I'd say he's at a higher risk than most.

I'd also contend that the less productive he is and the weaker his offensive line is, the more of a beating he will take as far as his body is concerned. Consider that when he had an elite offensive line and such with Birk in the fold, he was able to get into the secondary many times before encountering resistance and then HE was delivering much of the hits rather than taking them. When he has guys in the backfield and he's meeting lineman and linebackers at the line of scrimmage, he's taking more hits and it takes its toll. I mean just take last season, in the 2nd half of the year with just 12 fewer carries than the 1st half, he had 185 fewer yards (almost an entire yard per carry less) and had over twice as many fumbles.

I'm not saying by any means that people should go and sell now and panic, but these are just things to think about when you're considering the long term future of a guy like ADP. He's an exceptionally talented RB, but his style of running does take a larger toll than say someone like a Chris Johnson who rarely gets hit solidly because of his speed and shiftiness.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Kareighuis » Mon Jun 28, 2010 2:04 am

mattb47 wrote:I'm not saying by any means that people should go and sell now and panic, but these are just things to think about when you're considering the long term future of a guy like ADP. He's an exceptionally talented RB, but his style of running does take a larger toll than say someone like a Chris Johnson who rarely gets hit solidly because of his speed and shiftiness.


Exactly. I'm not saying now (or 6 months from now, or a year from now) is the time to trade him. But, when considering roster moves (drafts, trades) Peterson's running style might be something to take into account.

"Fine", you say, "but how?" Well, one option I've already thrown out is trading him. "Trade him and get what?" Yeah, it'd probably be difficult to find fair value at this point. One option- teams that drafted in the top-4 last year likely walked away with one of the top RBs. A package that includes that RB (Wells, Moreno) their 2010 1st (assuming top 5) and 2011 1st might be a good start. WRs tend to be more hit and miss and not transition as smoothly to the NFL. Some would consider targeting young WRs to be more desirable, especially in PPR leagues. DeSean Jackson, VJax, Calvin Johnson, HNicks, SRice, Crabtree, Harvin, MSW, Bowe are all young (-ish) WRs to consider targeting in such a trade.

Trading him away now would be a very aggressive decision. A more acceptable choice for some would be to draft around him. In one dynasty league last year, I drafted Shonn Greene, which freed me to trade Gore this year. Similarly, moving up into the mid 1st this year to get Tate/Hardesty (depending on what you think of them) could be better for some than trading Peterson.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Free Bagel » Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:25 am

mattb47 wrote:I'd also contend that the less productive he is and the weaker his offensive line is, the more of a beating he will take as far as his body is concerned. Consider that when he had an elite offensive line and such with Birk in the fold, he was able to get into the secondary many times before encountering resistance and then HE was delivering much of the hits rather than taking them. When he has guys in the backfield and he's meeting lineman and linebackers at the line of scrimmage, he's taking more hits and it takes its toll.


This is just guesswork for us really, and like the old "does losing a stud WR1b help WR1a or hurt him?" discussion it can be logically argued either way. Logically, it also makes sense that getting tackled when you're barely moving by some guy who is also barely moving is going to give you much less of a beating than two guys running at full speed and colliding with each other in some massive explosion of force.

It's ironic because it's the plays where Peterson is going at fully speed and lowers his shoulder into someone downfield that give Peterson the reputation of being too aggressive of a runner for his own longevity, yet here you're saying the complete opposite.

mattb47 wrote:I mean just take last season, in the 2nd half of the year with just 12 fewer carries than the 1st half, he had 185 fewer yards (almost an entire yard per carry less) and had over twice as many fumbles.


Like I said before, fantasy football statistics don't work like a bell curve. Football players have statistical "slumps" just like baseball players do. Why did Peterson have a poor ypc in the second half of the season? It could have been Bryant Mckinney not playing at LT. It could have been tougher defenses. Or, it could have been normal statistical variance. Like I mentioned before, Ladainian Tomlinson once had a finish almost identical to Peterson's 2009 finish, and which was clearly the worst 8 game stretch of Tomlinson's career during his prime, and the next season he put up the greatest fantasy season of all time.

mattb47 wrote:I'm not saying by any means that people should go and sell now and panic, but these are just things to think about when you're considering the long term future of a guy like ADP. He's an exceptionally talented RB, but his style of running does take a larger toll than say someone like a Chris Johnson who rarely gets hit solidly because of his speed and shiftiness.


I don't necessarily disagree, but again, what are we talking about here? The guy just turned 25 and has played 3 years in the league. He has 4 years left before we get to the point where even an "early" dropoff would occur.

It's interesting that you used Tomlinson of an example of a running back that had an unusually long career, because he played 7 years before his big dropoff, which is right where Peterson would end up if he had an "early" dropoff 4 years from now. If I told you that you could have LT after his 3rd season, would you trade that away? That's what we're talking about here.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby mattb47 » Mon Jun 28, 2010 7:38 pm

We're not talking about the same thing with LT because they are NOT the same kind of runner or player at all. LT was a shifty runner who really never took solid hits because he knew how to absorb contact....Peterson SEEKS contact which (no matter how you might try to spin it) DOES increase a guy's injury risk and DOES shorten a RBs life span overall. I pointed at Tomlinson because he was a guy who had more consistently huge workloads than many RBs ever have for that kind of timespan but he has a completely different running style than ADP so comparing the two in that sense is just ridiculous.

You're twisting my words some but that's okay...I didn't argue that Peterson dealing hits adds to his longevity rather than takes away from it...I was making the point that him taking hits at the line of scrimmage (from LBs going full speed by the way, not someone barely moving taking down a runner barely moving) takes its toll even moreso than him getting into the secondary. Every hit makes a difference but some more than others and the worse his offensive line is, the more hits he TAKES rather than GIVES.

While statistics can say many things no matter how you try to spin them...much like how you are trying to do now, it doesn't take away from the overall results you can look at from the information. The plain fact of the matter is that no matter how you cut it, his production per touch has been steadily declining each season in what should be where he should be peaking as a RB and in years where he has been much healthier. Whatever things you want to attribute to that are fine, but that FACT remains and it is something worth looking at.

I'm really not sure what you're arguing so hard against here FB...I'm trying to figure it out but I can't quite understand...I'm not saying anything concrete or anything big, I'm just tossing things out there for people to consider and I believe they're valid to look at and keep in mind when it comes to ADP in this year and the future.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Kareighuis » Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:44 am

Contract Holdout?

Vikings appear to have an Adrian Peterson problem- "Something is wrong between Adrian Peterson and the Vikings. Maybe it's a contract issue or the preferential treatment given to Brett Favre".

Don't Print That- "The Vikings, by drafting running back Toby Gerhart and then signing RB Ryan Moats, could be preparing for an Adrian Peterson contract holdout."

Probably just speculation, but interesting regardless.

Update-

Sporting News report. Yay, a report on speculation!
Last edited by Kareighuis on Wed Jun 30, 2010 7:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Kareighuis » Tue Jun 29, 2010 8:33 pm

So says bagobonez
bagobonez wrote:For some reason I get the feeling that Peterson is actually going to start to decline soon. I don't know why, maybe it's the hype, maybe it's his punishing running style and the fact that he had durability concerns coming out of Oklahoma.


Maybe your Adrian Peterson dynasty owner thinks the same...
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Jun 30, 2010 7:29 am

I've been trying to find a hardlink to the scouting report mentioned in this podcast, but no luck so far. Until then, this is what was said 44 seconds in, at the 4:25 mark-

Sigmund Bloom, Footballguys wrote:With Adrian Peterson, this is a guy who's candle is burning at both ends, basically, the way he plays football... Part of his scouting report was he may be a spectacular superstar, but only for 5, 6 or 7 years. He's not going to have a long career.


If that time frame proves accurate, that means he has 2-4 years left.

Looking around for a hyperlink, found alot of 2007 scouting reports comparing him to Eric Dickerson, primarily because of his explosiveness and upright running style. While Dickerson played 11 seasons, he exceeded 1000 yards only 7 times. Get a look at his career stats yourself- awesome 7 of his first 8 years, but he then hit a wall and never again broke 750 yards. He missed 2 games his first 4 years in the league, then played 16 games only twice his final 8 years as injuries/age destroyed his career.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby jayday » Wed Jun 30, 2010 8:10 am

Bagel laying some truth in this thread.

I have no illusions that ADP will still be playing at a high level when he is 33-34 a la Warrick Dunn or some of the other guys who take less punishment...but to predict a fall off at any point in the next 3-4 years is nonsense. If you have him in a dynasty, ride that horse into the ground and enjoy him while he lasts. If you are in a league with competent owners, you won't be getting good enough value in a trade to justify giving up a talent like him. Now sure, if you're in a league with a bunch of window-licking idiots, then yea...consider offers if the deal is way lopsided. But what's the fun of being in a league like that? Do you play video games on god-mode too?
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:07 am

Once again...who is predicting that he is going to decline in the next couple to few years?? That's not what I'm saying so I am struggling to understand why people seem so intent on arguing with me on a point that I am not making... :-°
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