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Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:24 pm

mattb47 wrote:Once again...who is predicting that he is going to decline in the next couple to few years?? That's not what I'm saying so I am struggling to understand why people seem so intent on arguing with me on a point that I am not making... :-°


Not you. Probably me.

jayday wrote:If you have him in a dynasty, ride that horse into the ground and enjoy him while he lasts.


Why? Why not trade him just before he falls apart? Why not get something of value before your star becomes a wasted roster spot? The Tomlinson owners would have loved getting something. Look back at his career, the best time to trade him to get the most in return might have been after that massive 1800 yard, 28 TD season. You'd have gotten the most in return and you'd have bailed just before he nosedived.
I'm constantly trying to trade for guys before their career arc spikes up- and guys away before they crash.

Would you have ridden Owens (career stats) into the ground, or traded him before he crashed?

jayday wrote:If you are in a league with competent owners, you won't be getting good enough value in a trade to justify giving up a talent like him.


That's an important question. One I've asked, but noone has answered- What is good value? I suggested Moreno/Wells, a 1st in 2010 (assuming the pick was in the top 5) and a 2011 1st as possibly a good start. What do you think?
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby LS2throwed » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:48 pm

Kareighuis wrote:
Why? Why not trade him just before he falls apart? Why not get something of value before your star becomes a wasted roster spot? The Tomlinson owners would have loved getting something. Look back at his career, the best time to trade him to get the most in return might have been after that massive 1800 yard, 28 TD season. You'd have gotten the most in return and you'd have bailed just before he nosedived.
I'm constantly trying to trade for guys before their career arc spikes up- and guys away before they crash.



I'm all for that most definately, but the point is it's premature to be thinking that way with Peterson. The dude is 25 years old, if you'd be willing to trade every elite RB at 25 years old I don't see the point of a dynasty. These guys aren't made of glass, 25 isn't the time to think about stuff like this. 27-28 sure I'm with you, but he's a truly special Rb, one we don't see very often, and he's smack in the middle of his prime.


LT still had 4 elite top 5 Rb seasons left when he was 25 years old, 2004-2007, if you had jumped the gun and traded him at age 25 that's what you missed out on, and 4 potential chances at a championship. LT had far more wear and tear at age 25 then AD did also. It's just a bit ridiculous to me to be having this conversation about a guy at this age.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby biju » Wed Jun 30, 2010 1:52 pm

LS2throwed wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:
Why? Why not trade him just before he falls apart? Why not get something of value before your star becomes a wasted roster spot? The Tomlinson owners would have loved getting something. Look back at his career, the best time to trade him to get the most in return might have been after that massive 1800 yard, 28 TD season. You'd have gotten the most in return and you'd have bailed just before he nosedived.
I'm constantly trying to trade for guys before their career arc spikes up- and guys away before they crash.



I'm all for that most definately, but the point is it's premature to be thinking that way with Peterson. The dude is 25 years old, if you'd be willing to trade every elite RB at 25 years old I don't see the point of a dynasty. These guys aren't made of glass, 25 isn't the time to think about stuff like this. 27-28 sure I'm with you, but he's a truly special Rb, one we don't see very often, and he's smack in the middle of his prime.


LT still had 4 elite top 5 Rb seasons left when he was 25 years old, 2004-2007, if you had jumped the gun and traded him at age 25 that's what you missed out on, and 4 potential chances at a championship. LT had far more wear and tear at age 25 then AD did also. It's just a bit ridiculous to me to be having this conversation about a guy at this age.


But you could have also used that exact same mentality on Larry Johnson and been completely wrong. LJ lasted until 26 basically and then never got back to above 900/5 after two seasons of 1700+/17+. And personally I liken Adrian Peterson to Larry Johnson more than I do Tomlinson.

It's worth mentioning that there were "other" circumstances that helped LJ's demise: an aging O-line who lost key members between 2006 and 2007 and two seasons with a combined total of 826 touches.

But Peterson's O-line is starting to trend similarly and has 741 touches in the past two years (which probably doesn't count the 54 touches he had in the postseason). While it might be tough to extract the proper value for him and it might be tough to watch him rip up another year, now might not necessarily be the wrong time to move him if someone wishes to pay the price...
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby LS2throwed » Wed Jun 30, 2010 3:58 pm

LJ is in a case by himself and far different then LT or AD.


He had 336 carries in 2005, and a ridiculous 416 carries in 2006. Throw in receptions and he had 369 touches in 2005, and 457 in 2006. If anyone gets that type of a workload then hey, you'll see me on the bandwagon saying to trade them also, but that's why LJ is in a case by himself. If AD ever reaches 450+ touches in a season I'll start to worry also, or 400+ carries.


AD only had 1 game over 30 carries in the past 2 seasons, and that one game was exactly at 30 carries. LJ had 6 of those games in 2006 with one reaching as high as 39 carries, and he had 5 30+ carry games in 2005 even though he was only starting half of the season. He was ran into the ground, AD hasn't reached that point yet, if they start to do it I'd look at trading him but that's not the case yet.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby moochman » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:10 pm

Free Bagel wrote:It's ironic because it's the plays where Peterson is going at fully speed and lowers his shoulder into someone downfield that give Peterson the reputation of being too aggressive of a runner for his own longevity, yet here you're saying the complete opposite.

It's interesting that you used Tomlinson of an example of a running back that had an unusually long career, because he played 7 years before his big dropoff, which is right where Peterson would end up if he had an "early" dropoff 4 years from now. If I told you that you could have LT after his 3rd season, would you trade that away? That's what we're talking about here.


This is why you cannot use LT to compare careers with APF. LT is known for rarely taking direct hits, Peterson is not. The wear and tear is different and will shorten most careers. So the question is what makes APF different than other upright backs who aren't adverse to contact. Add to that a real possibility that the Vikes will decline sharply when Favre retires and they ask a middle aged, battered, ADP to take on a bigger load against stacked Ds. Unlike Mattb ( :-b ), I'm not saying he won't be productive, but will he be as productive a RB in as short as two years?
So why wouldn't you have to consider trading him today?
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:45 pm

Everyone mooch is saying to sell ADP now before he gets benched behind Gerhart! Do it! :-b ;-)
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby moochman » Wed Jun 30, 2010 5:52 pm

mattb47 wrote:Everyone mooch is saying to sell ADP now before he gets benched behind Gerhart! Do it! :-b ;-)



Your words Matt :-b

But now that you mentioned it, MATTB47, one has to wonder if Gerhart will get play in the latter parts of comfortably led games so as not to wear down APF and not risk nasty, game-turning fumbles. Good thought, Matt, but I wouldn't think Peterson has to worry about Toby replacing him yet. ;-D
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 01, 2010 8:09 am

mattb47 wrote:Once again...who is predicting that he is going to decline in the next couple to few years?? That's not what I'm saying so I am struggling to understand why people seem so intent on arguing with me on a point that I am not making... :-°


I disagree with your take on most of the stuff we were discussing before, but I don't want to get caught up in one of those point by point breakdown wars so I'll stick to this one, which was one of my larger points.

You mentioned in one of your early posts that LT had a long career at an elite level. LT played at an elite level for 7 years, then dropped off immensely. Adrian Peterson has currently played 3 years, and just turned 25 a couple months ago. If no one is predicting that Peterson will decline in the next 2 years, then what are people arguing about here? If Peterson plays 3-4 more years at an elite level then he will have played just as long at that level as a guy that you said had a long career at that level. Unless you're predicting that Peterson will drop off within the next two years, coming off his 26 year old season, which would by far be the earliest major decline in the history of running backs as far back as I can remember, then what are we talking about here?

Like I said before, if you predict that Peterson will drop off 4 years from now, then you're basically looking at the same situation as selling LT at this point in his career. Because at this point in his career, LT had 4 years left as a top runner.

So no, Adrian Peterson is not going to be one of those Emmitt Smith or Curtis Martin type guys that plays until he's 34. He's not going to play at a high level to 33, probably not to even 32 or 31. Most running backs don't, and if people expect that out of their players when ranking them they're playing with fire. Look down the list of top 5 running backs every year for the last 10 years and tell me how many of those guys went on to play at that level until they were 32. Sorry, but I'm not selling the guy who may be the most talented running back to play in our lifetime because he's not likely to be among the 5% of runners that play into their early-mid 30's.

And you know what, Chris Johnson isn't going to be elite into his 30's either. If history has shown us anything, it's not that players that run aggressively have shorter careers, it's both that smaller runners and more importantly, runners that rely mostly on speed and elusiveness, are almost blanketly not going to maintain playing at a high level into their 30's. Think of the guys that maintained their production well into their 30's. Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Thomas Jones, etc. What do all of them have in common? Physically, they're not elite. They're not guys who ever, at any point in their careers, relied on their speed or were ever considered the most agile back in the league. If there's one thing that is guaranteed to drop off when you hit the later stages of your career, it's speed and shiftiness, and without those, what is left of Chris Johnson? So really, who are you going to trade Peterson for?
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Thu Jul 01, 2010 8:37 am

Free Bagel wrote:If there's one thing that is guaranteed to drop off when you hit the later stages of your career, it's speed and shiftiness, and without those, what is left of Chris Johnson?

Incredible vision and good patience. But of course he's no where near the same player without his explosiveness.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby mattb47 » Thu Jul 01, 2010 10:04 am

I'm not sure if you missed this FB, but I didn't really start this thread in the first place...I mean my words were used as a starting point on things I said in something on a slightly different topic in a different place, but I didn't begin this discussion so I'm not the one to ask why we're having this discussion in the first place because I'm not saying what you're arguing against.

First of all, I don't necessarily think that Peterson DOES have 4 years of production left like the one's he has had so far. I don't think his body is going to hold up as well as LT's body has for the length he played because it's taking so much more of a beating than LT had. The other thing with LT is that at this point in his career his numbers were climbing, not dipping. His ypc climbed in each of his first 3 seasons in the league and while it dropped in his 4th, he followed that up with 2 more season of increasing production (LT also had him beat by close to 1000 total yards at this point in his career too but that's beside the point). I don't see that necessarily happening with Peterson.

Now, I don't know if he's going to drop off the face of the earth in the next year or two, but I don't think he's going to be one having a really long career (even the length of an LT) and I wouldn't be surprised if we do start seeing some signs of decline coming sooner rather than later.

I understand that you seem to be a big fan of Peterson's and think very highly of him...but I don't know that you're looking at things all that objectively here. I'm just saying it's a possibility and you seem to be taking that almost offensively. :-?
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