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Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 01, 2010 12:49 pm

I'm not taking anything offensively, I'm not in love with Adrian Peterson (err, ignore my sig :-b).

Seriously though, if there's one thing I pride myself on in FF it's my ability to not fall in love with players, and to look at them objectively. I could sit here and argue for a guy all offseason long and if I see something different in the next season, I'll sell him off in every one of my leagues and own up to it here. Heck, just look up my Calvin Johnson posts from last year (where I vigorously argued that he was the #1 WR and was way more valuable than Fitzgerald) compared to this year, where across several boards I've stood basically on my own in saying that after watching him closer for a year, his football talent is overrated.

So let's narrow this down. You didn't like people implying that you meant Adrian Peterson might decline within the next two years, so you're not saying that. But you are saying that you think he might not have 4 years left playing at an elite level. So basically what you're saying is that his career might possibly be limited to one year less than a guy who you considered to have had "such a long career" playing at a high level.

It would help if someone on that side of the argument would give us something tangible. LT played 7 years at an elite level and you considered that a long time. Assuming that Adrian Peterson runs the ball as over the top aggressively as a lot of people are implying (he doesn't, at least not to the extent being applied here), and assuming it shortens someone's career by whatever amount you think it might, how many years do you expect out of Peterson in terms of playing at a high level? He's already played 3, so if you say anything less than 6 then you are saying he will decline within the next two years (and at the age of 26 no less, which is unheard of), which you've already said is not the case. If you say anything higher than that, then we're basically right at a career length at an elite level that you've already defined as "long".

As for the declining vs. improving ypc thing, that's a bit of a silly argument since LT's ypc started at 3.6 and Peterson's at 5.6, and that's not even to mention LT started with a bad line in front of him that got much better throughout his career, whereas Peterson had the completely opposite in starting with an elite O-line that is now one of the league's worst. And again, if we're attributing the drop in ypc to Peterson declining, then we're talking about Peterson declining at the age of 24, which is just something I'd never be able to get on board with for any player. Watching the Vikings last year it was easy to see that the O-line was awful, and that Peterson was the same running back he's always been.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zQz4mz1K3s

Those are the highlights from his 2009 season. That's the same guy that it was in 2007, he was just out in space able to make those plays a whole lot less because the line was barely capable of getting a running back out of the backfield. Just ask Chester Taylor.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby mattUTD20 » Thu Jul 01, 2010 3:18 pm

If I am a Peterson owner, I am more worried about him losing carries in the red zone than injury issues at this point in time. There is going to be a point in time when coaches say to themselves, this guy might be more of a liability than an asset in the red zone / at the goal line because he fumbles all the damn time. And they may have already acted on that thought by drafting Gerhart. I would be more worried about Gerhart becoming the next Alstott and neutering Petersons touchdown potential.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Thu Jul 01, 2010 3:25 pm

Wow. The music completely ruined that highlight package. :| Which is an accomplishment considering how good those highlights were.

Do yourself a favor and watch that with the sound off.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Thu Jul 01, 2010 3:40 pm

mattUTD20 wrote:If I am a Peterson owner, I am more worried about him losing carries in the red zone than injury issues at this point in time. There is going to be a point in time when coaches say to themselves, this guy might be more of a liability than an asset in the red zone / at the goal line because he fumbles all the damn time. And they may have already acted on that thought by drafting Gerhart. I would be more worried about Gerhart becoming the next Alstott and neutering Petersons touchdown potential.

I don't think this is something you'd need to be concerned about.

I don't have any statistics to back this up, but I'd have to think his success rate in short yardage situations was as good as just about anyone last season. He seemed to come through on third-and-short more often than not even when he wasn't given any room. And 14 of his touchdowns runs were from 5 or fewer yards out.

The majority of his fumbles come when he's out in the open and unwilling to go down. It's usually the 2nd or 3rd guy to meet him who gets a hand on the ball and punches it out. That's not to say he never fumbles in short yardage situations but that's not where the bulk of his fumbles are coming from.

You take the ball away from your superstar in critical game situations and it's going to lead to problems. Since there are already rumors of a rift forming between AD and the Vikings I don't see them seeking an opportunity to piss him off further.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 01, 2010 3:58 pm

He was definitely in the top tier among short yardage conversions, though not a standout amongst the other top runners. At the goaline however, he was a bit moreso, but not all hugely far ahead.

Peterson converted 14 of 30 attempts at the goaline. For comparison, here are the other top FF running backs and their production down there.

MJD: 7 of 20
Thomas Jones: 8 of 20
CJ3: 5 of 12
Sjax: 3 of 13
DeAngelo: 2 of 10
Stewart: 3 of 16 (surprising)
Gore: 4 of 8
LT: 9 of 28
Forte: 2 of 18

It's also worth noting that I believe he had only 1 fumble in the redzone, and 0 fumbles lost (this could be incorrect, I'm going off memory of what someone else posted a while back here).

I'm not sure how good Gerhart is at holding onto the ball. I remember reading that he had 6 fumbles, though I can't remember if that was last season alone or in the last two seasons combined at Stanford.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby jayday » Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:41 am

Kareighuis wrote:
jayday wrote:If you are in a league with competent owners, you won't be getting good enough value in a trade to justify giving up a talent like him.

That's an important question. One I've asked, but noone has answered- What is good value? I suggested Moreno/Wells, a 1st in 2010 (assuming the pick was in the top 5) and a 2011 1st as possibly a good start. What do you think?

No. Not enough for me. And I think a lot of people would be insulted if I turned that offer down, but I really wouldn't. I would really have to sit down and think about what it would take to trade a RB of his caliber.

Peterson is proven. Moreno and Wells are coming off decent rookie seasons, but they both still have questions. Moreno has had zero 100-yard games and only had a single run of better than 20 yards. Wells will be on the injury list throughout his career. He always has something bothering him. I'm an OSU fanboy too, but it's the truth. He'll hobble off the field at minimum once or twice a game. It gets old. Ben Tate or Montario Hardesty (example of your 2010 top 5 pick) don't really excite me in the least as I thought it was a weak rookie RB crop. 2011 is too far off to speculate.

Anyway, it might just come down to differences on how we view FF strategy. I will take the rifle shot approach over the buckshot approach every time. By this I mean I'll take the option of plugging AD in my lineup Week 1 and leave him there through the playoffs over taking a grab bag of backs and playing matchups every week.

The one exception I would make in this discussion would be if your team had AD and a bunch of scrubs. If you are in the cellar of a dynasty and your starting QB and WRs are worse than the bench players on most of the other teams, yes I would definitely consider trading AD for a king's ransom to elevate my whole team. But if I am in the top half of the league with a competitive roster, I hold on to him every time.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Indibuck » Sun Jul 04, 2010 12:53 pm

I own AP in my $$$ hybrid keeper league (we can keep up to 9 -- so you almost have to have a dynasty mentality for long-term success).

My keepers include AP, Grant, Wells, Ronnie Brown, Miles Austin, Colston, MSW, and Schaub. I won it all 2 years ago and finished 3rd last year, so my squad is a definite contender for 2010 and beyond IMHO. At this point in AP's career, it would have to be an offer that would knock my socks off to trade him.

If someone offered me Wells or Mendy + 2010 high first round + 2011 first round, I would decline it.

AP is just a special talent that only comes around so often... of all the top RBs, I think he has the best chance to finish in the top-5 consistently for the next several years.




I think this would be fun to revisit this question in preseason 2012, where it's more likely that he may be at the beginning of the end.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby LS2throwed » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:07 pm

Indibuck wrote:
I think this would be fun to revisit this question in preseason 2012, where it's more likely that he may be at the beginning of the end.



Exactly. No way I would trade any elite, once in every 5-10 years type of RB in his mid 20's, I wouldn't care what type of battering ram he was. That is, like I said unless the RB was getting 350-400 carries a season or something unrealistic. Once we get to 27-28 years old I'm all for moving a guy for the right price, but it's not even up for discussion for me at 25 years old unless my team sucks. No other circumstance I'd even consider.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby bungle613 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:46 pm

LS2throwed wrote:
Indibuck wrote:
I think this would be fun to revisit this question in preseason 2012, where it's more likely that he may be at the beginning of the end.



Exactly. No way I would trade any elite, once in every 5-10 years type of RB in his mid 20's, I wouldn't care what type of battering ram he was. That is, like I said unless the RB was getting 350-400 carries a season or something unrealistic. Once we get to 27-28 years old I'm all for moving a guy for the right price, but it's not even up for discussion for me at 25 years old unless my team sucks. No other circumstance I'd even consider.


As much as I love AD and the way he plays football, equally as a fan of football and FF there is NO loyalty in FF. I watched LT's decline as an owner and should have moved him 2 years ago, I did not. While the argument to move a 25 y/o stud RB BEFORE his decline is the reason I did not join this debate earlier there are reasons to move an AD now. IF you are in a dynasty and have either decided to rebuild or your team plain ol sucks and AD is the only piece you have, I would not hesitate to deal him. If I could get Mendy, a low 2010 1st and at least a shot at a low 2011 1st I would probably take it. I have no rebuilt my entire RB stable in essentially 1 year of young talented RB's. Get lucky with a couple of WR's in the 2nd and I can rebuild my entire team in a year.
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Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby LS2throwed » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:04 pm

bungle613 wrote: I watched LT's decline as an owner and should have moved him 2 years ago, I did not..



But that puts us right back to where I said we should be, talking about trading an elite RB in his late 20's, I doubt anyone was thinking of moving him in his mid 20's. Can you think of another RB other then LJ who was worked to death that was of an elite status, declined before age 28? I can't. I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I honestly cannot find any circumstances unless we bring into it a major injury.


Clinton Portis had his big decline last year but he was 28 years old. Edge hit his big decline when he was 30. I don't know why this discussion with AD should be valid right now. There is no reason he shouldn't have at the very least 3 elite seasons left, top 3 RB type of seasons that could win you a championship. I'm not saying you can't move him for the right price which you feel is good(as you said the Mendy deal), but if he had any sort of major statistical dropoff within these next 3 seasons it would be an anomaly and probably one of the rare occurences it's ever happened.


Talking about LT's decline is certainly not the same thing. LT still had a great season at 28 years old then the decline started, and I bet you would have been able to get a deal similiar to the one your talking of talk with Mendy, where you could get a young RB around 22 with a couple 1st paired in.
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