Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Indibuck » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:07 pm

bungle613 wrote:
LS2throwed wrote:
Indibuck wrote:
I think this would be fun to revisit this question in preseason 2012, where it's more likely that he may be at the beginning of the end.



Exactly. No way I would trade any elite, once in every 5-10 years type of RB in his mid 20's, I wouldn't care what type of battering ram he was. That is, like I said unless the RB was getting 350-400 carries a season or something unrealistic. Once we get to 27-28 years old I'm all for moving a guy for the right price, but it's not even up for discussion for me at 25 years old unless my team sucks. No other circumstance I'd even consider.


As much as I love AD and the way he plays football, equally as a fan of football and FF there is NO loyalty in FF. I watched LT's decline as an owner and should have moved him 2 years ago, I did not. While the argument to move a 25 y/o stud RB BEFORE his decline is the reason I did not join this debate earlier there are reasons to move an AD now. IF you are in a dynasty and have either decided to rebuild or your team plain ol sucks and AD is the only piece you have, I would not hesitate to deal him. If I could get Mendy, a low 2010 1st and at least a shot at a low 2011 1st I would probably take it. I have no rebuilt my entire RB stable in essentially 1 year of young talented RB's. Get lucky with a couple of WR's in the 2nd and I can rebuild my entire team in a year.



There's a lot of ifs and "get luckys" with that equation, though. Unless you have nothing but AP, it's a disservice to your team to trade him now, short of getting silly value in a trade.

As an AP owner, I am not loyal to the player... but I am loyal to the player's value. Barring major injuries over the next few years, his value will continue to be a top-3 RB. My standpoint is that I can get more value holding him for 2 more years then revisiting this question.
Indibuck
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionLucky Ladders ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 4455
(Past Year: 157)
Joined: 8 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Fort Rain

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby bungle613 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:47 pm

Actually there are only 2 ifs in that equation.

1) If you want to rebuild your team

2) If you can get value worth dealing him.

2 people have said they would not deal him for a 2010 low first, Mendy and a 2011 first which would likely be low if the 2010 first is low. I don't see how you could not deal one piece for 3. You deal AD that took your team to last place anyways because you have garbage surrounding that one piece. In my only dynasty left that was around in 2007 the 1.01 pick was purchased for LJ and 1.04. LJ was coming off the #2 overall stats but did have a sizable ? attached to him but to be honest, most thought the guy overpaid for AD.

So, I will use 1.01 and 1.03 for 2010 and 1.05 and 1.06 for 2011. You can take your team in 1 year from

Garrard
AD
Julius Jones
Housh
Bryant
Berrian

to

Garrard
Mendy
Matthews
Dez Bryant
A.J. Green (maybe, there are at least 3 backs I can think of that could go ahead of him so it is possible)
Michael Floyd

and still maybe get a Bradford at 2.01. You can make the case even more extreme by using draft class from 2008 or 2009. You are doing your team a disservice by holding onto one piece that will not win you championships. Keeping one piece and building around it with only picks you runt eh risk of losing the window that AD has because you are still trying to get pieces to go with him. The only thing that matters in FF is winning and one player ain't gonna do that for you.
Image
Image
bungle613
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 10988
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 31 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: straight ahead, hang a left, look down

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby LS2throwed » Mon Jul 05, 2010 12:45 am

If my team looked like that first team I would probably trade AD too. Thing is, getting a younger RB that isn't quite as talented, mixed in with a few 1st rounders wouldn't be enough for me personally. You could end up with bust on both of those picks just as easily as you could hit on them. I would need more reliable starters.



I was shopping AD last year on a team that was pretty crap, and I was trying to get Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Josh Morgan, Brent Celek, and a future 1st. Keep in mind I was giving up players too but none that were too valuable, but I was looking to get a RB of a lower tier, a young potential RB who hasn't broke out yet, some breakout candidates at WR, and a startable TE along with a 1st. If that scares teams off, I'm fine keeping him because I don't want to just help another teams chances at winning for nothing.


1st rounders are nice I love them as much as anyone, but I'd just need more reliable players, 1st rounders really can end up just never starting at all for your fantasy team.
Image
Current Cafe Dynasties:
4th and Goal
Fourth & Inches
Double D
Any Given Dynasty
Eat Cheese Dynasty
NFL's Finest
Cafe Very Special Forces
LS2throwed
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 5373
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Arlington, Texas

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 08, 2010 12:58 am

bungle613 wrote:Actually there are only 2 ifs in that equation.

1) If you want to rebuild your team

2) If you can get value worth dealing him.

2 people have said they would not deal him for a 2010 low first, Mendy and a 2011 first which would likely be low if the 2010 first is low. I don't see how you could not deal one piece for 3. You deal AD that took your team to last place anyways because you have garbage surrounding that one piece.


And if you make that trade, there's a pretty fair chance that you'll end up with garbage surrounding more garbage. Between Mendy, a late 2010 1st, and a 2011 first, there's a decent chance that you'll end up with no one that's still fantasy relevant by the time Peterson "falls off" anyway, and there's virtually no chance that any of them, or likely even all three combined, will ever be as good as Peterson is now.

Things change fast in both the NFL and in fantasy. IMO, It's nuts to think that it's going to take more than 3-5 years for your team to be competitive, and start getting rid of guys who don't fall into that span. A few years ago we had an abandoned team in our league that was so bad that some of our league-mates actually considered offering to pay a new owner's entree fee since they didn't believe anyone would join the league to take over a team that bad. The next year, that same team scored the most fantasy points in the regular season.
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Kareighuis » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:01 pm

jayday wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:
jayday wrote:If you are in a league with competent owners, you won't be getting good enough value in a trade to justify giving up a talent like him.

That's an important question. One I've asked, but noone has answered- What is good value? I suggested Moreno/Wells, a 1st in 2010 (assuming the pick was in the top 5) and a 2011 1st as possibly a good start. What do you think?

No. Not enough for me. And I think a lot of people would be insulted if I turned that offer down, but I really wouldn't. I would really have to sit down and think about what it would take to trade a RB of his caliber.

Peterson is proven. Moreno and Wells are coming off decent rookie seasons, but they both still have questions. Moreno has had zero 100-yard games and only had a single run of better than 20 yards. Wells will be on the injury list throughout his career. He always has something bothering him. I'm an OSU fanboy too, but it's the truth. He'll hobble off the field at minimum once or twice a game. It gets old. Ben Tate or Montario Hardesty (example of your 2010 top 5 pick) don't really excite me in the least as I thought it was a weak rookie RB crop. 2011 is too far off to speculate.

Anyway, it might just come down to differences on how we view FF strategy. I will take the rifle shot approach over the buckshot approach every time. By this I mean I'll take the option of plugging AD in my lineup Week 1 and leave him there through the playoffs over taking a grab bag of backs and playing matchups every week.
The one exception I would make in this discussion would be if your team had AD and a bunch of scrubs. If you are in the cellar of a dynasty and your starting QB and WRs are worse than the bench players on most of the other teams, yes I would definitely consider trading AD for a king's ransom to elevate my whole team. But if I am in the top half of the league with a competitive roster, I hold on to him every time.

Whether your team is competitive (and what your bench is like) is important. If, as Bungle said you got a suck-ass team, trading him off could well be the way to go.
What do you consider a king's ransom for AD? LS2 says last year he wanted Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Josh Morgan, Brent Celek, and a future 1st for All Day and junk. Obviously, that would have worked out for him. His plan had been to get a RB of a lower tier, a young potential RB who hasn't broke out yet, some breakout candidates at WR, and a startable TE along with a 1st.

I started this. And this is why- Peterson has been starting in the league for 3 years and has, let's say, 2-4 years left. Let's saying he's halfway through his NFL career. You Peterson owners can try to trade him 2 years from now, when it's clear he's real close to the cliff, but what will you get? A 1st, with maybe a Forsett/MchBush/Slaton type back? Maybe you'll start a bidding war and get someone to throw in a 2nd from the following draft? woohoo.
Notice the topic says "sell high". Not "sell now". I'm not arguing Peterson will fall apart this year or next. But, you try to trade him just before he's gonna fall apart, and people'll balk. The trick in trading him is the other owner needs to think they're getting the same (or similar) production, not a ghost from Peterson's past. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. So, you can trade him when the fantasy world thinks he has a year (or 2, max) left, but what will you get? Or, you could trade him when he has, say, 3 years left and the cliff seems far off in the distance- and get a veritable king's ransom. What that is, I don't know.

For whatever it's worth, I don't see LT as a good comparison for AD. Jamal Lewis seems to have a better mirror to what I expect Peterson's career arc to be. Get a look- 3 of his 1st 4 seasons over 1,000 yards, each with a ypc over 4.3, each season with runs of 75 yards or more. A powerful back who struck fear in defenders. Then, suddenly, he struggles to get more than 3.6 ypc, gets bounced by B-more and slips into FA oblivion. I don't expect Peterson's collapse to come so soon after his rookie season, nor do I expect his drop to be as precipitous, but Lewis' career seems to be a better match than Tomlinson's.
"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading." - Henny Youngman

I want a prehensile sucker tail, and I don't want to wait fifty million years.
Kareighuis
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 3627
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 14 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby LS2throwed » Thu Jul 08, 2010 9:02 pm

Kareighuis wrote:
I started this. And this is why- Peterson has been starting in the league for 3 years and has, let's say, 2-4 years left. Let's saying he's halfway through his NFL career. You Peterson owners can try to trade him 2 years from now, when it's clear he's real close to the cliff, but what will you get? A 1st, with maybe a Forsett/MchBush/Slaton type back? Maybe you'll start a bidding war and get someone to throw in a 2nd from the following draft? woohoo.
Notice the topic says "sell high". Not "sell now". I'm not arguing Peterson will fall apart this year or next. But, you try to trade him just before he's gonna fall apart, and people'll balk. The trick in trading him is the other owner needs to think they're getting the same (or similar) production, not a ghost from Peterson's past. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. So, you can trade him when the fantasy world thinks he has a year (or 2, max) left, but what will you get? Or, you could trade him when he has, say, 3 years left and the cliff seems far off in the distance- and get a veritable king's ransom. What that is, I don't know.

For whatever it's worth, I don't see LT as a good comparison for AD. Jamal Lewis seems to have a better mirror to what I expect Peterson's career arc to be. Get a look- 3 of his 1st 4 seasons over 1,000 yards, each with a ypc over 4.3, each season with runs of 75 yards or more. A powerful back who struck fear in defenders. Then, suddenly, he struggles to get more than 3.6 ypc, gets bounced by B-more and slips into FA oblivion. I don't expect Peterson's collapse to come so soon after his rookie season, nor do I expect his drop to be as precipitous, but Lewis' career seems to be a better match than Tomlinson's.




I don't think there is any way that AD at 27 or even 28 years old couldn't get you alot more then a 1st and a Michael Bush type RB. Hell, by all accounts in 2 years he'd still be churning out top 3 RB numbers and still in the middle of his prime, I can guarantee the price of what you could get now, and in 2-3 years would not change dramatically. Only thing that would change that is if he suffered a significant injury.


I don't see much changing by then. People trade for 27 and 28 year old RB's in dynasties quite frequently in the leagues I'm in, because depending on what team your dealing with if it gives him an edge to win the title for another 2-3 years he'll take that risk. In dynasty that's what it's about, winning championships, I wouldn't want arguably the best fantasy football smack in the middle of his prime, and trade him for more bench depth that ultimately makes my starting line-up weaker. So now your in a situation where yea you have alot more depth, more picks, more to work with, but you've gave yourself a much worse chance to win a championship.


I guess I don't see the point if you have an elite talent at RB, why trade him when he's 25? If your team is trash again I get that, if your at least good enough to compete then I don't get that at all. The year prior when I was trying to trade AD my team only had Aaron Rodgers, AD, Jermichael Finley(who hadn't done anything yet) and that was it. It was only 1 team I could find who had enough pieces for me to acquire to make me happy, and that was a rare instance when it would have worked out.


But let's look at the same deal. Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Josh Morgan, Brent Celek, 1st rder(may have been 2 or so more guys but this was the meat of it I can remember).



Chris Johnson could of just as easily ended up Matt Forte or Steve Slaton. All 3 had great rookie seasons, just so happened that i had a man crush on CJ since he was at East Carolina and tha twould have worked out and left me still with a great RB. Had I jus tpicked Slaton(who was on a better offense and some people liked him more) i twould of blown up in my face. Felix still hasn't done anything yet, so the jury is still out.


Josh Morgan is the 3rd option on a team who doesn't pass alot, Austin broke out so I got lucky again with my man love for potential Cowboy players, but Austin could of easily ended up one of the countless players who were supposed to break out for years now and never amounted to anything. Celek would have been nice, and that 1st is a complete crapshoot.



That's the thing is that even though it seems like you'd be coming up on alot of players, you could easily end up trading a sure fire stud for alot of question marks and guys who flame out. Yea I may have gotten lucky with the guys I picked(which may have been why he turned it down), but I could see 100 different scenarios where that turns my team to shit and AD is still carrying teams to the final 4 each year.


Maybe you could ask for more proven guys, like Ray Rice and not as much, but it just kinda defeats the purpose to me to trade a guy who is still young as hell at this point.


AD is a RB like we haven't seen before in a long time, comparisons may help but he's nothing like any of those guys we have mentioned in this thread. I think it is very very unlikely he falls off the cliff before 29 years old, at the truly special backs are able to play early into their 30's.


I'm confident AD is one of the guys who can still do a modest 1200 rushing yards and 9 TD's when he's 31 years old, whether he's a battering ram or not, but that's just my belief. Even if I felt he'd fall off a cliff, I'd get 2more elite seasons out of him, and trade him at 27 years old that off-season of 2012 and get exactly th esame price that I'd be asking for right now.



As far as Jamal Lewis goes, he had a few down years mixed in with Baltimore, but at age 28 he still managed 1600 total yards and 11 TD's. I have no doubt in my mind that if you traded him after that season I could of gotten more then a 1st, and a younger RB.
Image
Current Cafe Dynasties:
4th and Goal
Fourth & Inches
Double D
Any Given Dynasty
Eat Cheese Dynasty
NFL's Finest
Cafe Very Special Forces
LS2throwed
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 5373
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Arlington, Texas

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Free Bagel » Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:45 pm

Kareighuis wrote:I started this. And this is why- Peterson has been starting in the league for 3 years and has, let's say, 2-4 years left. Let's saying he's halfway through his NFL career. You Peterson owners can try to trade him 2 years from now, when it's clear he's real close to the cliff, but what will you get? A 1st, with maybe a Forsett/MchBush/Slaton type back? Maybe you'll start a bidding war and get someone to throw in a 2nd from the following draft? woohoo.
Notice the topic says "sell high". Not "sell now". I'm not arguing Peterson will fall apart this year or next. But, you try to trade him just before he's gonna fall apart, and people'll balk. The trick in trading him is the other owner needs to think they're getting the same (or similar) production, not a ghost from Peterson's past. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. So, you can trade him when the fantasy world thinks he has a year (or 2, max) left, but what will you get? Or, you could trade him when he has, say, 3 years left and the cliff seems far off in the distance- and get a veritable king's ransom. What that is, I don't know.

For whatever it's worth, I don't see LT as a good comparison for AD. Jamal Lewis seems to have a better mirror to what I expect Peterson's career arc to be. Get a look- 3 of his 1st 4 seasons over 1,000 yards, each with a ypc over 4.3, each season with runs of 75 yards or more. A powerful back who struck fear in defenders. Then, suddenly, he struggles to get more than 3.6 ypc, gets bounced by B-more and slips into FA oblivion. I don't expect Peterson's collapse to come so soon after his rookie season, nor do I expect his drop to be as precipitous, but Lewis' career seems to be a better match than Tomlinson's.


And like LS2throwed said, the names in that trade could have just as easily been guys like Matt Forte and Limas Sweed. You can't constantly churn your roster by trading guys with 4 years left for guys with 6-7 years left. Every one of us is wrong about half the guys we have an opinion on and very few players maintain playing at an elite level for a long time. The likelihood that the main guy you get back in the Peterson trade will even still be fantasy relevant four years from now is low. Eventually, and more likely early or even immediately, you're going to be wrong about people and end up getting nothing back instead of 4 years of elite production.

Also, I'd like to ask you the same thing I asked earlier in the thread. Which is it? In one paragraph you say that Peterson doesn't only have 2 years of elite production left, but in the next paragraph you say that Peterson won't have as long a career at an elite level as LT did. So which one are you saying, because the two are completely contradictory. If Peterson plays more than 2 more years at an elite level, he's basically played as long as LT did at that level. If he plays four more, he's played exactly as long.

The last thing that I want to touch on is Peterson's running style. It is being exaggerated in this thread. Comparing Adrian Peterson to Jamal Lewis is just crazy talk. I think this is just a case of highlights getting the better of us like they did with Calvin Johnson seemingly not being at fault for anything last year, or with Percy Harvin having a reputation as a "raw" receiver, or with Deion Branch being rated highly after a big game in the Super Bowl. People completely disregarded what he did in the 32 games before that one, because of what happened in the few plays of his that they saw. Likewise, people will completely disregard 30 examples of Peterson running around a guy in the open field because of the 1 example where he ran a guy over that made its way to Sportscenter.

Adrian Peterson is an elusive runner first. There, I said it. Check out that youtube video I posted earlier in this thread. It's 9 minutes of footage and he lowers his shoulder maybe 4 times in the entire video (and keep in mind, in a highlight video the creator is more inclined to show an offensive player lowering his shoulder into a defensive player). Adrian's Peterson go-to move is his cut. Adrian Peterson's lateral agility is far more important to him than his strength. If he needs to get past a guy, his first move is to run around him, not run over him. Peterson decides to lower his should and really blow up a guy a few times a year and because he's so good at it, it gets him the perception that that's what he does often. Yes, there was the one run last year where Peterson stupidly torpedo'd into a guy when he could have just stepped out of bounds, but other than that he wasn't that different from your typical runner. He runs out of bounds, he runs around people way more than he runs through them, etc.

This notion that LT was basically Barry Sanders and only ran around people, and that Peterson is just a skinnier Jerome Bettis is nuts. What exactly do you guys think LT was doing while setting records for goaline carries season after season? He was lowering his shoulder and plowing his way into the endzone.

Is Peterson a more aggressive runner than LT? Absolutely. Does he initiate more contact than LT? Certainly. But the gap is not nearly as huge as people are making it out to be. Peterson is not LT, but he's much more similar to LT than he is to a guy like Jamal Lewis, and it's not even close.
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Dec 22, 2010 6:39 am

Free Bagel wrote:Is Peterson a more aggressive runner than LT? Absolutely. Does he initiate more contact than LT? Certainly. But the gap is not nearly as huge as people are making it out to be. Peterson is not LT, but he's much more similar to LT than he is to a guy like Jamal Lewis, and it's not even close.


I agree, but I also think AP is closer to Lewis than LT.

With regards to his team-situation, rather than his individual talents, found this on another board-

KIABall wrote:As an Adrian Peterson owner from 2007 through the present, I am getting tired of his playoff disappearing act that he pulls every year.

He has very few good games during the second half of the year. This year, if you survived his generally poor last several games of the regular season, he killed you in the first round of the playoffs last week and now everyone who had faith in him for tonight are rewarded with a last minute scratch.

He has had over 1200 touches over the past four years. He runs like a monster, looking for contact. There is tread on those tires. His best offensive lineman is on the downside of his career. When Hutchinson's all pro game left seattle, that was literally the end of Shaun Alexander's run of fantasy greatness. As Hutchinson is in decline, the Vikings have a gaping hole at QB. AP is used less and less in the passing game of late, making matters even worse. Defenses don't let him get into space. It seems when the defensive gameplan is to take AP out of the game, the defense is able to do it. And it is obvious that defenses should do just that week after week.

This isn't to say that AP is garbage. He is probably still a top 10 back next year, even with everything stacked against him. But no way in hell I take him with a #1 overall pick.
"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading." - Henny Youngman

I want a prehensile sucker tail, and I don't want to wait fifty million years.
Kareighuis
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 3627
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 14 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Adrian Peterson- Dynasty Sell-High?

Postby Ed4252 » Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:30 pm

And Walter Payton is a better comparison for ADP than Tomlinson.

Payton had 9 x top 5 seasons in the NFL.

Anyways, it's going to be intriguing to see this offseason if Peterson owners are willing to trade him for McCoy or Charles + picks/players in a PPR league.

I'm a Peterson owner in a dynasty ppr league (16 team league) and I'm not willing to trade him yet..maybe in a year or two - he's gotten me to the championship game in this deep league 2 out of the 3 years.
Ed4252
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 163
Joined: 12 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 2:19 hours
(and 38 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact