Yes, I am a little perlexed by this situation too. Without LT I feel confident he could put up 1500 and 10+ TD's this season in that offense, LT without Greene would still put up 1200 yards and 10+ TD's; but together? Obviously the big thing is how manhy chances each will get and more importantly who gets the goalline carries??? Greene is the big bruiser but LT has proven to have a great nose for the endzone.
I wouldn't even consider Mcknight an issue unless they both are hurt.
I don't want to have anything to do with Greene this year. Yes, a lot of people are high on him but like you said, he had like one good game and didn't have good YPC until the playoffs. He is a non factor in the passing game so his overall explosiveness is limited. I predict 1,100 yards rushing 7 TD 35 yards receiving, 0TD. He will ultimately disappoint his owners.
I love Shonn Greene this year. i think that he has the potential to be a top 5 back in non ppr leagues. He plays on a run first team with the best o-line in the league.
To answer your concerns- 1. he didn't do much until the playoffs- The playoffs were really the first the time that Thomas Jones was asked to take a sit and Greene was given a chance to play an extended role. Once he got in the game he tore it up. If he would have been the starter from Week 1, his numbers would have been incredible. I love the fact that he had great playoff run. I would much rather see a guy dominate in the playoffs rather than in late meaningless regular season games againt crappy teams.
2. The LT factor- Some of you guys just need to realize that LT is done. He clearly showed last year that he has lost his explosion and he is just an average back at this point in his career. People still want to overvalue him just because of his name and past glory. LT will be used just to give Greene a break every now and then. The only thing that he will steal from Greene are some third down receptions, that is if he can make it through the season healthy.
3. McKnight- I don't think McKnight changes greene's value at all. the Jets will probably use him on special teams more than at Rb.
I don't see any reason why Greene won't be able to top 1,400 yards and 12 Td's. The only knock is that he won't do much in the passing game, so he gets downgraded in PPR leagues.
I think the only real knock on him is that he hasnt proven he can do it over a stretch of games. durability is what seperates great Rbs. He's on a running team with a good Oline so thats good. i dont trust sanchez to be able to pass and open things up much so thats bad. i agree that LT is done and i dont think he'll be taking many goalline carries from Green, because SD was even trying to put Sproles in a few times on the goalline late in the year instead of LT. I think he's there more as a mentor. All that being said, i do think he's being drafted a little high. i wouldnt take him in the 1st, but would in the late 2nd/early 3rd. problem is i think in most leagues, he'll be taken before then based on all his fantasy rankings.
my philosophy is that your first round pick/RB1 HAS to produce big. You cant afford to miss on your top pick, so why take the risk? there are much safer RBs available. Save the risk taking for later rounds.
Why is anyone surprised he didn't produce until the playoffs? Thomas Jones was the lead back all season, Greene didn't get his chance until Jones went down and he's not in the picture now. That shouldn't be hard to figure out.
All signs point towards the Jets wanting Greene to be the feature back now, and they will be one of the top rushing teams in the league in terms of yards and carries. LT is washed up, he's not going to poach many TD's, Greene is a red zone banging runner himself, he'll help out on 3rd downs and not very much else.
I think Greene can do 1300 rushing yards, 11 TD's. I don't expect much lower then that, they don't want LT to be the feature back, Greene will lead the team in carries, and he showed when given the chances to do it he can do just that.
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