TruNinerFan wrote:I would much rather have Breaston and it's not even close for me.
Housh clearly showed last year that he is on the downside of his career. Breaston has a ton of upside. He looked pretty good last year and now with Boldin out of the picture he will get a chance to shine. He should see a lot of single coverage with Fitz drawing most of the attention. I know that Housh has the bigger name, but Breaston is the better player at this point of their careers.
I agree with the above posters because it's a dynasty league.
But in redrafts, I think their values are a lot closer than the other opinions.
Housh 2009 stats: 79/911/3. This was his first year in SEA, playing with a QB that was rarely healthy, a non-existent running game, and no true WR2. SEA has made upgrades at RB, QB (with the signing of Whitehurst), and OL. They also bring in coach Pete Carroll, whose USC offenses liked to feature bigger WRs... Housh has pretty good size, and I think fits into what Carroll will try to being to the table.
While Housh's ceiling is limited because of the poor SEA offense, I think last year's numbers are pretty close to what his floor is for 2010.
Breaston 2009 stats: 55/712/3. That's a 2.5 point advantage per week for the WR from SEA in 2009.
So you're saying, well Boldin's gone, he should have a chance to shine with single coverage. Boldin posted 84/1024/4. That was with Warner at QB and a solid 3rd WR in Breaston. Now you have Leinart and a weaker 3rd WR, plus AZ is going to run more.
There's also been speculation that Early Doucet, not Breaston, will play the Boldin role. That would keep Breaston in the slot, where he is better suited anyways IMHO... but it would also figure to limit his targets.
But let's assume Breaston does indeed win the #2 job. Because Breaston is not as talented as Boldin, let's take the 2009 numbers of Breaston and Boldin and divide by 2.... that comes out to a projection of 70/918/4. I think that's a pretty good number, especially considering AZ plans to run the ball more.
So even if you take Housh's floor numbers, he still puts up slightly better numbers than I am projecting for Breaston.
For as much hate that Housh gets, especially in these forums, I think he is a nice value pick for seasonal PPR leagues.