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Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby Retet » Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:03 pm

Just like any other position, there's going to be one or two QBs that are not in the so called "big 7" that will finish much better than said "big 7". It happens every year. And one or more of the big 7 will disappoint. Last year, I drafted Schaub in the 8th as a back up to Warner. Who drafted Brett Favre last year as his/her starting QB?

I think that you don't have to grab one of the preseason darlings and still have a good season, especially if you're either lucky or good on draft day and pick one of the later qbs who'll make you look like a genius.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby StudentOfTheGame » Sun Aug 15, 2010 11:26 pm

Retet wrote:Just like any other position, there's going to be one or two QBs that are not in the so called "big 7" that will finish much better than said "big 7". It happens every year. And one or more of the big 7 will disappoint. Last year, I drafted Schaub in the 8th as a back up to Warner. Who drafted Brett Favre last year as his/her starting QB?

I think that you don't have to grab one of the preseason darlings and still have a good season, especially if you're either lucky or good on draft day and pick one of the later qbs who'll make you look like a genius.


You're right. It does happen every year, but you still have to make a decision. Do you want to depend on luck and hope that you scored one of the rare QBs that exceeds everyones expectations do you want to have the security that comes with drafting a QB who you can pencil in for 4200 plus yards and 30 plus TDs? If you're in a competitive league, chances are that everyone knows the break out candidates at QB and where they fall in the draft. Do you really want to take the risk of praying that all 11 other owners forgo your QB for literally hundreds of picks before you can pick him up in the 10th round. Even if he falls to you, you're still betting against the odds and hoping that this is the year he puts it all together and becomes a probowl calibur QB.

Personally I'd rather not take that risk on a late round QB whose upside is 26-28 TDs. Typically the QBs that fall that far are simply not capable of putting up numbers that are routine for some of the elite QBs.

If your'e in a league that awards 6 points for passing TDs, getting a QB who stays healthy and establishes himself in a system for a long enough period of time to make throwing 32-35 TDs seem routine is my most important objective on draft day. Theyre labeled the "big 7" for a reason. They're great almost every time they step out on the field. They also seem to get better every year and they have the potential to single handedly put you way ahead of the competition. I dont have to do the math to recall how ridiculous the margin was between Brady and even the second best performer in 2007-2008.

Who knows Maybe Rodgers continues to grow in that offense and produces a dominant year. Drew Brees had performances last season(6 TDs in the opener and 5 TDs against the pats) that proved that his ceiling is as high as anyones and hes capable of dominating a fantasy matchup. Tony Romo has the supporting cast that gives him the potential to have a special season. And dont forget about the two guys who have produced the best fantasy seasons ever(Manning/Brady). Maybe all Brady needed was another off season to feel confident enough physically to reach the comfort level that made him so dominant prior to his injury.

Even if these guys fall short of a special season, they are going to score enough to be in the top 10 when all is said and done. Alot of times we can make fantasy football seem more complicated than it really is. Its simple really: Outscore your opponent. Drafting an elite QB in the 3-4th round is by far the surest way to boost your scoring potential. If you are prepared for your draft, you will land enough sleepers to surround your QB with enough fire power to compete for a title.
Last edited by StudentOfTheGame on Mon Aug 16, 2010 12:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the

Postby mattb47 » Sun Aug 15, 2010 11:51 pm

Every season I target guys outside of the "top" group of QBs taken highly and I usually end up with a couple of them and normally at least one of them ends up being pretty solid. I had guys like Ben Roethlisberger last season, years before then I had players like Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, etc. Just got to know which guys have the upside to reach the upper level of QBs that year and which guys will fall to you later in drafts. It's not always going to produce results but I think it has the highest potential to get you a championship caliber team.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the

Postby justinj312 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 2:42 am

mattb47 wrote:Every season I target guys outside of the "top" group of QBs taken highly and I usually end up with a couple of them and normally at least one of them ends up being pretty solid. I had guys like Ben Roethlisberger last season, years before then I had players like Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, etc. Just got to know which guys have the upside to reach the upper level of QBs that year and which guys will fall to you later in drafts. It's not always going to produce results but I think it has the highest potential to get you a championship caliber team.


I do the same thing for RBs and it has worked well for me. There's more than just one way to skin a cat.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the

Postby mattb47 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:35 am

That's true...but personally, I think the success rate is higher doing this with QBs than it is doing it with RBs.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby DemonDeacon » Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:58 am

i agree with both of the above posts. however i think its a lot more risky to go into a season with no clear cut #1 rb than a #1 qb. outside of the top 7 ill go out and say that one of these guys flacco/ryan/cutler (who all ironically have the same bye week) will be a top 5 qb. which one? not sure yet but one of em prob will be. And they are all being drafted outside the top 7. Its much harder to play the same game with RBs. Last year there was a lot of love for Rice preaseason but he wasnt getting top 5 or even top 10 love, neither was Charles or Ricky Williams.

Just like with every other year, wait on QB. Plus after the top 9 qbs get drafted (and you know that at least one of flacco/ryan/cutler will still be there) you can usually push them further back in the draft b/c back up QBs dont start flying off most boards till rd 10ish in my experience.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby Azrael » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:48 am

DemonDeacon wrote:i agree with both of the above posts. however i think its a lot more risky to go into a season with no clear cut #1 rb than a #1 qb. outside of the top 7 ill go out and say that one of these guys flacco/ryan/cutler (who all ironically have the same bye week) will be a top 5 qb.


That's what's interesting to me about this strategy this year (throw in Eli and Kolb as well). All those fringe guys that might turn in quality starting performances this year all seem to have the same bye week. You might very well find yourself having to roster 3 QBs for a couple weeks this year. No big deal perhaps but it might get tricky if you have injuries elsewhere on your roster. I do think one or more of Flacco/Ryan/Cutler is going to have a really good year. If you happen to be in a league that does not penalize INTs, Cutler is a no brain mid round draft pick as my starting QB.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the

Postby Reg » Mon Aug 16, 2010 7:41 pm

mattb47 wrote:That's true...but personally, I think the success rate is higher doing this with QBs than it is doing it with RBs.


I think stacking RBs or WRs works better. A lot more guys to play with, as its a lot harder for a starting QB to sneak up into stud levels. You aren't going to find a ray rice type QB, or a miles austin.

but whoever said it a page or so back was right, there is no right or wrong, and a great fantasy player will be able to succeed with various strategies
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the

Postby mattb47 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:12 pm

I'm confused by what you mean by there aren't any "Ray Rice type QBs" or "Miles Austin type QBs"....there are QBs who heavily outperform their ADP every year and while there aren't usually going to be guys who were off the radar completely and come up big. You can still get huge value like you could with these other guys. Think of players like Ben Roethlisberger and Brett Favre last year, in 2008 it was Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Cassel, etc. So I don't really know what you mean by that because there are guys like that EVERY season and I think there will be some again this year.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby dgan » Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:22 pm

Using a high pick on QB:

Pros - You essentially don't have to draft another one. You can spend all your mid and late round picks hoarding RBs (literally, 2/3 of your bench should be RBs), hoping one or two of them pan out. A quality QB can probably be traded for in a pinch.

Cons - You are essentially screwed if that guy gets hurt. The one pick you did use in the 14th round on Matt Cassel probably is not going to save your season if your top guy gets hurt. That quality QB you're trading for? It's going to cost you big time, because that owner knows you are in a pinch.

Using a high pick(s) on RB(s):

Pros - You don't have to draft as many backups. Maybe an average guy, a prospect, and a handcuff, and you're set. You can take more liberty stockpiling WRs, and start that run on TE or DEF if you're so inclined. You tend to have a lot more flexibility in the trade market.

Cons - Getting ravaged by injury at this position can really be frustrating, because there is literally nothing you can do. (And it happens quite frequently. Never fails, the only two top 15 RBs in the league to miss half the season were both drafted by the same owner.) You have to use a few more bench spots on QBs that you know will never see your starting lineup. It can make Bye week and injury decisions a lot tougher.

Overall, I think the benefits outweigh the risks going RB early. You are typically going to have less depth in most areas, but you will have BETTER depth. Unless your team is the IR holding tank of the league, you can overcome the average adversities.

If you use a high pick on a QB (which I've done, and it can work), a lot more things have to work in your favor. One of those bargain RBs have to break out. You still can't handle a lot of injury, especially at QB. And I think you're weaker at other positions because you are in a state of panic the rest of the draft trying to take every RB that "fell to you". You almost start congratulating yourself on the great deals you're getting on Donald Brown and Tashard Choice. Meanwhile, viable WRs that can be started in certain matchups are being stashed away by other owners.

Finally, the killer with using a high pick on a QB - watching the guy you had ranked as your 4th best QB get drafted 5 rounds later. It will eat away at your soul for months!
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