Retet wrote:Just like any other position, there's going to be one or two QBs that are not in the so called "big 7" that will finish much better than said "big 7". It happens every year. And one or more of the big 7 will disappoint. Last year, I drafted Schaub in the 8th as a back up to Warner. Who drafted Brett Favre last year as his/her starting QB?
I think that you don't have to grab one of the preseason darlings and still have a good season, especially if you're either lucky or good on draft day and pick one of the later qbs who'll make you look like a genius.
You're right. It does happen every year, but you still have to make a decision. Do you want to depend on luck and hope that you scored one of the rare QBs that exceeds everyones expectations do you want to have the security that comes with drafting a QB who you can pencil in for 4200 plus yards and 30 plus TDs? If you're in a competitive league, chances are that everyone knows the break out candidates at QB and where they fall in the draft. Do you really want to take the risk of praying that all 11 other owners forgo your QB for literally hundreds of picks before you can pick him up in the 10th round. Even if he falls to you, you're still betting against the odds and hoping that this is the year he puts it all together and becomes a probowl calibur QB.
Personally I'd rather not take that risk on a late round QB whose upside is 26-28 TDs. Typically the QBs that fall that far are simply not capable of putting up numbers that are routine for some of the elite QBs.
If your'e in a league that awards 6 points for passing TDs, getting a QB who stays healthy and establishes himself in a system for a long enough period of time to make throwing 32-35 TDs seem routine is my most important objective on draft day. Theyre labeled the "big 7" for a reason. They're great almost every time they step out on the field. They also seem to get better every year and they have the potential to single handedly put you way ahead of the competition. I dont have to do the math to recall how ridiculous the margin was between Brady and even the second best performer in 2007-2008.
Who knows Maybe Rodgers continues to grow in that offense and produces a dominant year. Drew Brees had performances last season(6 TDs in the opener and 5 TDs against the pats) that proved that his ceiling is as high as anyones and hes capable of dominating a fantasy matchup. Tony Romo has the supporting cast that gives him the potential to have a special season. And dont forget about the two guys who have produced the best fantasy seasons ever(Manning/Brady). Maybe all Brady needed was another off season to feel confident enough physically to reach the comfort level that made him so dominant prior to his injury.
Even if these guys fall short of a special season, they are going to score enough to be in the top 10 when all is said and done. Alot of times we can make fantasy football seem more complicated than it really is. Its simple really: Outscore your opponent. Drafting an elite QB in the 3-4th round is by far the surest way to boost your scoring potential. If you are prepared for your draft, you will land enough sleepers to surround your QB with enough fire power to compete for a title.
Last edited by StudentOfTheGame on Mon Aug 16, 2010 12:43 am, edited 2 times in total.