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Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the

Postby Reg » Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:32 pm

mattb47 wrote:I'm confused by what you mean by there aren't any "Ray Rice type QBs" or "Miles Austin type QBs"....there are QBs who heavily outperform their ADP every year and while there aren't usually going to be guys who were off the radar completely and come up big. You can still get huge value like you could with these other guys. Think of players like Ben Roethlisberger and Brett Favre last year, in 2008 it was Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Cassel, etc. So I don't really know what you mean by that because there are guys like that EVERY season and I think there will be some again this year.


Where were big ben and favre taken last year? maybe as backup qbs? and what about rice or austin? rice as maybe a RB3, miles way later, WR4 or 5? undrafted? There was some hype with rice, but he finished as a top 4 RB. Miles austin came out of NOWHERE. QBs dont do that. Which QBs do you think can really dominate their late ADP? I don't see any guys that aren't being drafted as starters that will really come out of nowhere and put up huge numbers. On the other hand, there will be a bunch of random RBs/WRs taken as 4th or 5th options that will finish a lot higher
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the

Postby dgan » Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:42 pm

Reg wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I'm confused by what you mean by there aren't any "Ray Rice type QBs" or "Miles Austin type QBs"....there are QBs who heavily outperform their ADP every year and while there aren't usually going to be guys who were off the radar completely and come up big. You can still get huge value like you could with these other guys. Think of players like Ben Roethlisberger and Brett Favre last year, in 2008 it was Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Cassel, etc. So I don't really know what you mean by that because there are guys like that EVERY season and I think there will be some again this year.


Where were big ben and favre taken last year? maybe as backup qbs? and what about rice or austin? rice as maybe a RB3, miles way later, WR4 or 5? undrafted? There was some hype with rice, but he finished as a top 4 RB. Miles austin came out of NOWHERE. QBs dont do that. Which QBs do you think can really dominate their late ADP? I don't see any guys that aren't being drafted as starters that will really come out of nowhere and put up huge numbers. On the other hand, there will be a bunch of random RBs/WRs taken as 4th or 5th options that will finish a lot higher


The difference is that Favre was one of 10 QBs drafted that the owner had no idea was going to do what he did. That's a 10% hit rate. Austin was one of about - what? 80 backup WRs drafted? That's a 1.2% hit rate. You have to draft a LOT of skill position players (half of which you'll cut by week 3) to get lucky, although when you do hit on one it is truly a free ride. QB is fairly simply because you have to carry a backup anyway, and that guy is guaranteed to be a starter at worst. So the "outproduction" may not be as dramatic, but far more likely to occur.

I actually don't know what the argument is here - not sure which cause I'm helping - but I thought I'd throw that out there. ;-D
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby LS2throwed » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:19 pm

This is definately a year I'm rolling with a late round QB, I don't think one really has to "carry" my team so to speak, which seems to be the argument here, but if I can stock up on higher ranked RB's, WR's, and TE's, I'll gladly take a QB after all those positions that will at least be relatively close in fantasy ppg to some of the higher ranked QB's which would make up the gap if my RB's and WR's were scoring more points.



Just for a comparison, let's look at a few QB's who were drafted pretty far apart and their ppg. I always like to use ppg because you can see how close or far apart it is per week/contest vs entire numbers.


Drew Brees: 19.6 ppg
Donovan McNabb: 16.8
Eli Manning: 14.5
Jay Cutler: 14.3


Now I think this was with 4 pt per passing Td in 1 of my leagues. I really don't think 3-5 points per game is worth spending a 1st rd pick on, vs guys who are going well after the 7th. I'd rather take my chances on elite players at RB, or WR early on, even TE's, and then take a few late round guys who may outplay their ADP.


Chad Henne, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, there are alot of guys I'm looking at late I think won't be too far off some of the first tier QB's at all. Earliest I've taken a QB all year is 5th round where I hope I can get 1 of Romo or Schaub. Wait a round later and look for Rivers and a round later for Cutler. Don't have my QB adp in front of me, but even more times then not I've passed those guys up because I felt Rb or WR, or TE value was about to drop off dramatically and QB's would still be around. I definately don't see the value in Rogers or Brees, but I'm not gonna act like if you don't draft well outside of them you couldn't easily win a championship, I just agree with most of these guys in that grabbing someone late will be sufficient enough and I'd prefer a higher ranked player at another position over QB.


Dgan made a great point about the odds it takes to find that Miles Austin, or Ray Rice in your draft. Nobody was relying on those guys, hell Miles Austin wasn't even drafted in probably 90% of fantasy drafts, and maybe half of those picked him up before the KC game, he was a hot pickup after and rode the wave, but finding a late round Qb to outplay his adp is much easier with better odds.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the

Postby Reg » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:56 pm

dgan wrote:
Reg wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I'm confused by what you mean by there aren't any "Ray Rice type QBs" or "Miles Austin type QBs"....there are QBs who heavily outperform their ADP every year and while there aren't usually going to be guys who were off the radar completely and come up big. You can still get huge value like you could with these other guys. Think of players like Ben Roethlisberger and Brett Favre last year, in 2008 it was Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Cassel, etc. So I don't really know what you mean by that because there are guys like that EVERY season and I think there will be some again this year.


Where were big ben and favre taken last year? maybe as backup qbs? and what about rice or austin? rice as maybe a RB3, miles way later, WR4 or 5? undrafted? There was some hype with rice, but he finished as a top 4 RB. Miles austin came out of NOWHERE. QBs dont do that. Which QBs do you think can really dominate their late ADP? I don't see any guys that aren't being drafted as starters that will really come out of nowhere and put up huge numbers. On the other hand, there will be a bunch of random RBs/WRs taken as 4th or 5th options that will finish a lot higher


The difference is that Favre was one of 10 QBs drafted that the owner had no idea was going to do what he did. That's a 10% hit rate. Austin was one of about - what? 80 backup WRs drafted? That's a 1.2% hit rate. You have to draft a LOT of skill position players (half of which you'll cut by week 3) to get lucky, although when you do hit on one it is truly a free ride. QB is fairly simply because you have to carry a backup anyway, and that guy is guaranteed to be a starter at worst. So the "outproduction" may not be as dramatic, but far more likely to occur.

I actually don't know what the argument is here - not sure which cause I'm helping - but I thought I'd throw that out there. ;-D


Last year you would have drafted Favre as a borderline starter. He finished 3rd or 4th I believe. Of the top 10 or so guys, he was the only big surprised aside from big ben, and I don't know if either would have won you a league. On the other hand, even grabbing Rice in the 4th round would have been huge, and if you got miles austin, even bigger. You could have gotten guys like thomas jones, ricky williams. Vincent Jackson. Those picks are huge, more valuable than what you can get with a QB sleeper. But thats just my opinion. I rather grab a stud WR early, for example, and load up on RBs in the mid rounds and hope someone pans out.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby dgan » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:28 pm

Whatever you do early on, I do agree stockpiling RBs in the midrounds is the best strategy. That is the position you are most likely to stumble onto a gold mine. There is a high rate of injury and turnover at that position, so you are just more likely for someone to get in the starting lineup and do something. QB and WR have a much lower chance of being productive, even if they do get into the lineup. Look at QBs that ranked in the top 10, and you see very few surprises. Same with WR - aside from Steve Smith, who had 85 or more catches that surprises you?

So no matter what you draft early, I think RB is the first area you look to load up on guys with upside. To me, that's actually one of the benefits of getting a marquee name at QB (for good value of course), is that you can then totally forget about the position afterward. If you take a Joe Flacco as your starter, for example, you're more likely to use a midround pick on a "just in case" QB.

The key is you don't have to get Brees. There are plenty of great QBs available later on, after you have a couple RBs and a WR or two.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby Sex Panther » Tue Aug 17, 2010 6:58 am

Why is Schaub being ignored as a suprise last year?

He had NEVER been able to stay healthy for 16 games & he ended up leading the league in passing yards, and ended up as what, the 3rd highest scoring FF QB...

There was some preseason hype surrounding him, but he was typically at least the 8th or 9th QB off the board... Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Warner, Romo, Big Ben, McNabb, Rivers - then the Schaub discussion started - I got him in the 10th round in 1 league (I think he went in the 8th or 9th in 2 other leagues)

Bottom line is it is MUCH easier to score a pair of startable QB's later in drafts than to find those diamond in the rough weekly startable players at RB or WR.

What gets me in the handful of mocks I've done is the asking price on the "name" QB's out there - IMO there is no way anybody outside of the top 3 - Manning, Brees, Rodgers - should be drafted before the 5th round - and in mock after mock I see guys like Romo, Rivers, Schaub, and Brady going in the 3rd & 4th - to me that is flat out insane - it's the equivilant in my eyes as taking Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates in the 2nd round - sure they are top flight options at the positions, but you are severely hurting yourself elsewhere by pimping your TE slot.

Ask yourself this... would you rather have a top flight stud at QB & TJ Housh or Derrick Mason as you WR2? Or take your chances w/ a pair of high upside guys like Cutler, Kolb & Ryan paired with a bare minimum of 4 1A or 1B options at WR & RB? I know how I answer this question - and it typically works out pretty well for me.

I'm guilty of falling into the allure of name QB's myself - and I typcally have had to scramble to fix it via trade or FA/WW pool a week or 2 into the season, I just know I won't do it again (unless of course I left with the choice of Manning/Brees/Rodgers vs a 2nd tier guy in the 3rd).

Another thing that is often ignored by going QB early is this - it makes the remainder of your draft pretty predictable - and helps out those drafting on your bookends - I know your probably not going QB again until MUCH later in the draft & I know your going to have to address RB/WR in a hurry, going BPA at every position not starting w/ a Q just got a whole lot easier for those drafting just before & just after you as long as they are paying attention.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby Sting129 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 10:02 am

I look at solely from an availability standpoint- there are 12 teams in my league, and we have a lineup of:

QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
WR
TE
DEF

Every team needs 2 RBs, meaning 24/32 starting RBs in the NFl are taken. But only 12-15 are truly solid RB1s.

36 WRs are going to be taken- top 8 are elite, top 15 are solid

That leaves QBs. there are 32 starting Qbs in the NFL, and only 12 are going to be fantasy starters. I'd rather stockpile a ton of RBs and WRs and draft a QB late, than take a WB early and be short somewhere else.

This goes for TEs too, frankly. The QB and Te position are ripe with 10-12 players each that I would love to have on my team. I'm not worried about those positions at all.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby murphysxm » Tue Aug 17, 2010 12:20 pm

Here's my two cents with numbers behind it. Changing from 4 to 6 points makes no difference at the elite level, just means you need to have a legit #1. Most of these arguments are talking about QB value in a vacuum, but there is also the value lost in a comparison.

Here is an example of differences using 4 and 6 pts and real life players. I used Rotoworlds projections. Note Manning is projected 12 more TD's than Flacco

OPtion 1 Peyton Manning in 3, Ronnie Brown (rb24) in the 8th
In a 6 pt TD league you get 31 points a game with the combo. In a 4 pter you get 27 per game

Option 2 Pierre Thomas in #3 and Joe Flacco in #8
6 pt league 30.5 pts and a 4 pt leage 26

Is there a difference sure, but not enough to alter my draft strategy at all. You can make it work both ways, don't reach if the value's not there. Can you draft Brees in 1 and land a stud RB in 8, sure, but you can also miss. Works both ways.

Bottom line is the 4 pt v 6 pt difference is minimal

Help me please
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby 2ksports » Tue Aug 17, 2010 5:04 pm

I'm taking Brees or Manning this year unless I'm getting one of the big 4 RBs. Everybody else seems like a huge risk, esp RBs.
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Re: Is it a must to grab one of the "Big-7" QBs?

Postby justinj312 » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:34 am

2ksports wrote:I'm taking Brees or Manning this year unless I'm getting one of the big 4 RBs. Everybody else seems like a huge risk, esp RBs.


I agree, IMO this draft falls off a cliff after pick 5-6. If i miss out on the top 5-6 RBs, then I'm probably gonna play conservative and pick an elite QB and/or WR in 1&2, then most likely go RB/RB in 3&4. I think one strength of this draft are mind-round RBs, so I'll be fishin' for them.
thx

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