Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

[theimitator]

So I usually end up drafting somewhere in the middle of my 14 team, flex PPR league. With the help of the Cafe, I have been able to dig out some crafty gems -- while the folks up front are doing shots on draft night and toasting their luck and the guys at the end are doing shots cursing theirs, I sip my beer and usually at week 17 I'm doing shots and smiling.

But this year, I got the number one pick. I've been mocking and feel comfortable with the team I can put together, as long as my league-mates act like a bunch of non-homer computers that play averages.

So I have the same top three RBs like everyone else. But I can't shake the idea that MJD is going to come out on top. Am I crazy?!

Yes, Chris Johnson had a monster, super-human year last year. Yes, he excelled with VY under center. But how many monster years are followed up with duds? The Titans, also towards the end of the year with VY under center, pushed to get CJ the rushing title. That's not gonna happen again this year. 358 carries is a crap-ton, and I remember what happened to LJ the year after he carried in that ballpark.

Yes. Adrian Peterson is elite. But do I think he'll have 18 TDs again? With a 40 year old QB -- or Tavaris Jackson? No. Then there is the price you pay with fumbles (last year 7 and the year before 9) and injuries (well, he had one injury-shortened season of his three). Last year, he had 43 recs, which doubled his previous total. If there's no Favre, that number goes back down. You could make the argument that with no Favre he becomes the total offense, and with no Chester that could spell more touches. But I'm not convinced he's durable enough. Plus, in his fourth year, there is loads of tape to study -- unlike in '08 when he gained 1700+ yards.

Then there's MJD. Fifth year in the league after a soft first three splitting time with Fragile Fred. In his first solo year, he carried 312 for about 1400 yards and caught 53 balls for an additional 375. Even when he was splitting time, he never caught less than 40 passes. Two fumbles last year. No injuries. Contract year. Conservative offense with a developing MSW to stretch the field.

I think CJ has too much wear and tear to duplicate last year. ADP has had negative changes (except losing Chesty) to his situation. MJD's situation has stayed the same, if not slightly improved, and he stands as the most likely guy to repeat his performance.

You can make the case that MJD is streaky and might experience a TD drought. Last year, before the bye, besides a scary 197 yd, 2 TD game (with 9 recs for 87 yards and another TD), CJ only broke the 100 mark once (including games of 37 and 57 yards) and scored zero TDs. Streak happens.

I have them 1. MJD 2. ADP 3. CJ

So am I crazy? Help me out. Set me straight.

[moochman]

No you are not crazy, football is. It is hard to predict just which player with have that career season. Last year CJ 4.24 did, so odds are he won't reproduce those numbers.
Alas, APF also had a career season. His 18 TDs were much more than other seasons, how much is due to Brett? Will Brett be back? Will Brett stay healthy? So Peterson has some questions.
MJD, too, had a career season last year. Will the Jags start to develop other O strategies to take the load off of MJD?
So I guess the question for me is which player is most likely to come close to career highs. I think most likely is prolly ADP, but the Favre thing keeps me from comitting to APF at #1, so I go with CJ4.24, he won't get 2K, but he could easily run for more yards than anyone else and score more than enough TDs to go with his pass catching.
MJD would be three, darkhorse Ray Rice who in PPR in the same ball park as MJD.

[Azrael]

No, and I wouldn't say someone is crazy if they thought Ray Rice was No. 1 either. This is why I think #4 is the best draft spot by far in the draft this year. Give me any of CJ, AP, Rice, MJD. Atleast at 4 I can say that I took best available, not having to make the choice on my own, and then I got to pick earlier in the 2nd before the other guys with top tier backs.

[mattb47]

I don't know that I think you're crazy, but I don't think you're right to have him #1. Are you saying that if you had the #1 pick you would draft MJD? If so then I think that's rather poor value...even just taking him a couple spots ahead of where he's being taken because of the high value put on guys ahead of him in most rankings (CJ and ADP).

And honestly, I'm not sure that I see MJD really having #1 overall potential. I don't know that I think he can put up the caliber of numbers that would land him #1 over alot of these other talented backs. In PPR leagues I have him #4 in my RB projections and #3 in my non-PPR projections. I just don't see him putting up the massive numbers necessary for the role of #1 RB...just my thoughts but I don't see it happening.

[Steelers Rule]

No way i would pass up Chris Johnson.

[Dan Lambskin]

I don't know that I think you're crazy, but I don't think you're right to have him #1. Are you saying that if you had the #1 pick you would draft MJD? If so then I think that's rather poor value...even just taking him a couple spots ahead of where he's being taken because of the high value put on guys ahead of him in most rankings (CJ and ADP).

And honestly, I'm not sure that I see MJD really having #1 overall potential. I don't know that I think he can put up the caliber of numbers that would land him #1 over alot of these other talented backs. In PPR leagues I have him #4 in my RB projections and #3 in my non-PPR projections. I just don't see him putting up the massive numbers necessary for the role of #1 RB...just my thoughts but I don't see it happening.

agree with this...i think he's a solid bet to finish Top 5, but i dont ever see him having that monster season where he's head and shoulders above the rest of the league (i.e. CJ2K 2009, DeAngelo 2008, LT Prime, etc)

[deluxe_247]

he just doesnt give you value at the number one pick...and i think thats what my decision comes down to here. cj and adp will almost always be picked 1 and 2...so id put money on you being able to trade down to the third spot and still getting mjd...and move yourself forward a round or two later in the draft. i personally dont believe he will outperform cj...but i think there is strong possiblity he could do better than adp. personally id do all i could to trade down.

[Stelly]

he just doesnt give you value at the number one pick...and i think thats what my decision comes down to here. cj and adp will almost always be picked 1 and 2...so id put money on you being able to trade down to the third spot and still getting mjd...and move yourself forward a round or two later in the draft. i personally dont believe he will outperform cj...but i think there is strong possiblity he could do better than adp. personally id do all i could to trade down.

This. If you are that high on MJD, I would trade down to the third spot. You can still get MJD, and at the same time, improve your team later with better/more draft picks.

[theimitator]

mattb47:

In PPR leagues I have him #4 in my RB projections and #3 in my non-PPR projections.

Why do you rank him lower in PPR? I would think his past rec history would rate a bump in PPR format. I read your rankings every year, so I'm curious.

And honestly, I'm not sure that I see MJD really having #1 overall potential.

Why not? Unless you think Chris Johnson will tote the ball 400 times and get 2500 yards or Peterson will be able to shoulder the whole Vikings team -- with dinged WRs and playing shootout teams like GB and CHI twice each.

deluxe_247:

so id put money on you being able to trade down to the third spot and still getting mjd...and move yourself forward a round or two later in the draft.

I kinda share this opinion, too. The number three guy is new in the league, so it's worth a shot.

[mattb47]

The reason I have MJD lower in PPR is not necessarily anything to do with what he won't do reception wise, and more about the much larger potential of Ray Rice to just dwarf his reception totals. As you can see just even from 2 years ago to last year after he took over the full starting job, his receptions dropped despite being on the field more often. He also started to catch fewer passes as the season wore on and I think they could be concerned with overworking him as we've seen with so many other guys who get the bulk of the carries AND catch a ton of passes, it's tough to maintain. It also seems that Flacco in Baltimore tends to get the "tunnel vision" more often than Garrard as you would see him go to Rice and Mason far too often last season and even when it didn't make sense to. I think Rice just has higher potential in PPR leagues and a similar floor which gives him the edge.

In non-PPR MJD has the edge because he's a superior TD guy.

I think the problem in MJD's case is that he can't perform at the super elite level he was early in his career with the limited touches now that he is getting so much more wear on his body as the season wears on. Look at the following for his yards and TDs per touch over his career so far:

2006: 212 touches, 6.5 yards per touch, 14 touches per TD
2007: 207 touches, 5.8 yards per touch, 23 touches per TD
2008: 259 touches, 5.4 yards per touch, 18.5 touches per TD
2009: 365 touches, 4.8 yards per touch, 22 touches per TD

I see a pattern here that isn't really leading me to believe that even if he gets a bunch of touches that he's going to absolutely explode for some huge numbers which is what really will be necessary for him to reach "#1 FF RB" kind of numbers. Compare this kind of trend to what Chris Johnson did from his first to second years and there's a very different comparison (5.1 yards per touch 2008, 6.1 yards per touch 2009). Even someone like DeAngelo Williams...he may not have had a #1 RB season last year but he still actually increased his yards per touch from 2008 to 2009.