Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

[dgan]

Both Jacksonville and Tennessee are taking a step backward on defense. Close games are a fantasy RBs best friend, making AP my favorite. However, with their receiving production in a PPR, they can contribute in situations where AP might not, which brings everyone very close together. With that argument, though, I would rather have Rice than MJD because at least Baltimore is good at throwing the ball. So I would go AP, CJ, Rice, MJD in a PPR.

I think it is close enough that you should take whoever you feel most comfortable with, but I also agree to trade down if at all possible. You might as well improve somewhere - even just the 5th round if that's all you can get - if you are going to take him.

[justinj312]

IMO u are crazy (just kidding), but anyway..

Just pick CJ424 and then trade him for MJD + something.

[A Fleshner Fantasy]

IMO u are crazy (just kidding), but anyway..

Just pick CJ424 and then trade him for MJD + something.

That's oftentimes easier said than done. If someone gets MJD (likely with the 3rd or 4th pick), I don't think they're going to be clamoring at the idea of trading him. CJ424 is better, but IMO (and probably the opinion of most people who would draft MJD), not better by enough to justify giving up a whole lot for that upgrade.

[hardcore]

Of course your not crazy. In fact, I've been saying for the last 3-4 seasons that is pretty much the best back in all of football. I drafted him in every league every year .He and ADP are pretty much a clear level above the others. Chris Johnson, I can assure you, will not last long in this league. I expect MJD talent level to eventually break out and dominate the league. You can tell how good a rb is by seeing how hard they are to tackle. CJ goes down way too easy

[mattb47]

Best back in all of football? Sorry, I don't think so.

[petedog9]

I dont think there is a problem with you thinking MJD will be the #1 RB by year's end. Thats your choice....What I wouldnt do is take him at #1 overall in a draft as you are not getting value for him there. Either trade down to the 3 hole to get him plus something extra or draft ADP / CJ2K and trade for MJD after the fact...

IMO this year the first 2 picks in every format are clearly defined as CJ and ADP in either order....

[theimitator]

I think the problem in MJD's case is that he can't perform at the super elite level he was early in his career with the limited touches now that he is getting so much more wear on his body as the season wears on. Look at the following for his yards and TDs per touch over his career so far:

2006: 212 touches, 6.5 yards per touch, 14 touches per TD
2007: 207 touches, 5.8 yards per touch, 23 touches per TD
2008: 259 touches, 5.4 yards per touch, 18.5 touches per TD
2009: 365 touches, 4.8 yards per touch, 22 touches per TD

I see a pattern here that isn't really leading me to believe that even if he gets a bunch of touches that he's going to absolutely explode for some huge numbers which is what really will be necessary for him to reach "#1 FF RB" kind of numbers. Compare this kind of trend to what Chris Johnson did from his first to second years and there's a very different comparison (5.1 yards per touch 2008, 6.1 yards per touch 2009). Even someone like DeAngelo Williams...he may not have had a #1 RB season last year but he still actually increased his yards per touch from 2008 to 2009.

mattb, thanks for the response. I have to say it gave me pause. But consider:

As his touches go up, of course his YPT will go down. Any influence of long runs would be diminished. Same with his TPTD: in the beginning, the Jags used his as a battering ram. As his utility went up, he was no longer a TD specialist. Also, consider his teammates. Such powerhouse WRs as: Reggie Williams, Ernest Wilford, Dennis Northcutt, and bust-a-licious QB Byron Leftwich were no help. Enter 2009 where MJD is the centerpiece, Garrard (no superstar, but serviceable) tosses to a developing MSW and Maurice is second in the NFL in rushing yards and second in TDs. With no changes to that offense how can he not continue? Especially when CJ 4.24 is likely to take a hit (see LJ 2007 after his monster 2006 campaign) and ADP will be playing with banged up WRs and a QB probably not named Favre.

Chris Johnson only has a two year data set -- it's not apples to apples to compare YPT with MJD in my opinion. MJD has four years' worth and went from being a part-timer to a full-time guy.


Anyone have any O-Line rankings for these three backs?

[A Fleshner Fantasy]

Of course your not crazy. In fact, I've been saying for the last 3-4 seasons that is pretty much the best back in all of football. I drafted him in every league every year .He and ADP are pretty much a clear level above the others. Chris Johnson, I can assure you, will not last long in this league. I expect MJD talent level to eventually break out and dominate the league. You can tell how good a rb is by seeing how hard they are to tackle. CJ goes down way too easy

You can assure us CJ424 won't last long in this league? An incredibly talented, young back put up some great numbers last year and you can assure us of this, based on the fact that it appears to you he goes down too easily? Give me a break.

[Azrael]

400 touch guy scares the crap out of me and he's such a string bean.

[justinj312]

Of course your not crazy. In fact, I've been saying for the last 3-4 seasons that is pretty much the best back in all of football. I drafted him in every league every year .He and ADP are pretty much a clear level above the others. Chris Johnson, I can assure you, will not last long in this league. I expect MJD talent level to eventually break out and dominate the league. You can tell how good a rb is by seeing how hard they are to tackle. CJ goes down way too easy

!?%^$?!

Where do I start? Nah, forget it...