Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

[justinj312]

400 touch guy scares the crap out of me and he's such a string bean.

Best of luck with B Jacobs this year then!

[mattb47]

I think the problem in MJD's case is that he can't perform at the super elite level he was early in his career with the limited touches now that he is getting so much more wear on his body as the season wears on. Look at the following for his yards and TDs per touch over his career so far:

2006: 212 touches, 6.5 yards per touch, 14 touches per TD
2007: 207 touches, 5.8 yards per touch, 23 touches per TD
2008: 259 touches, 5.4 yards per touch, 18.5 touches per TD
2009: 365 touches, 4.8 yards per touch, 22 touches per TD

I see a pattern here that isn't really leading me to believe that even if he gets a bunch of touches that he's going to absolutely explode for some huge numbers which is what really will be necessary for him to reach "#1 FF RB" kind of numbers. Compare this kind of trend to what Chris Johnson did from his first to second years and there's a very different comparison (5.1 yards per touch 2008, 6.1 yards per touch 2009). Even someone like DeAngelo Williams...he may not have had a #1 RB season last year but he still actually increased his yards per touch from 2008 to 2009.

mattb, thanks for the response. I have to say it gave me pause. But consider:

As his touches go up, of course his YPT will go down. Any influence of long runs would be diminished. Same with his TPTD: in the beginning, the Jags used his as a battering ram. As his utility went up, he was no longer a TD specialist. Also, consider his teammates. Such powerhouse WRs as: Reggie Williams, Ernest Wilford, Dennis Northcutt, and bust-a-licious QB Byron Leftwich were no help. Enter 2009 where MJD is the centerpiece, Garrard (no superstar, but serviceable) tosses to a developing MSW and Maurice is second in the NFL in rushing yards and second in TDs. With no changes to that offense how can he not continue? Especially when CJ 4.24 is likely to take a hit (see LJ 2007 after his monster 2006 campaign) and ADP will be playing with banged up WRs and a QB probably not named Favre.

Chris Johnson only has a two year data set -- it's not apples to apples to compare YPT with MJD in my opinion. MJD has four years' worth and went from being a part-timer to a full-time guy.


Anyone have any O-Line rankings for these three backs?

The thing is though...EVERY single year he has been in the league his effectiveness per touch has dropped. If it only has to do with the amount of touches, then why did his effectiveness drop in his 2nd season when he had roughly the same amount of touches and actually a bit fewer? Why do these other backs who have had unbelievable season and have broken apart from the pack seem to have in common that they do increase their efficiency per touch on a yearly basis? Even if Chris Johnson only has 2 years of numbers to look at, compare his year with less touches and then his year with a ton of touches and do the same with MJD and there is a HUGE difference. That's the difference here...I don't see that "blow up" potential out of him and that's why I just can't see him being the #1 RB because that's what you HAVE to have to land there.

The #1 fantasy RB is going to have exceptional numbers and I don't see that coming from MJD as he has proven now consistently that he won't be the guy averaging 5.5 ypc or something on his 300 carries like a Chris Johnson or high YPC and super high TDs like DWill did previously. Just a different level in my opinion.

[Azrael]

400 touch guy scares the crap out of me and he's such a string bean.

Best of luck with B Jacobs this year then!

Ha, it's easy to pick out an injury prone guy that doesn't get the ball that much to support your point. Why not say "best of luck with Ray Rice or MJD"?

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Ar ... buse!.html

Very interesting "400 touch" article.

The one redeeming thing about Johnson's 400 touch season last year is that he was only 24 last year. At this point, being so young, perhaps he's able to endure that type of abuse right now AND he is very elusive. He doesn't take shots like some of the guys like Dickerson, LJ, Jamal Anderson took. I just wish the dude had a little more meat on his bones. But a previous poster was right, at that rate of abuse he will not last long in this league.

But he's just too explosive to not take 1st or 2nd. The potential is too great but I hate making that pick.

[hardcore]

Best back in all of football? Sorry, I don't think so.

Umm, I think so. Since entering the league, he has more td's than any rb outside LT. Oh BTW, did I mention that he was a freakin backup for 3 seasons. Name one other viable offensive player the 24th rated offense Jacksonville has? Every defender has keyed on MJD on every play he is in and still busted the league up. If Jacksonville ever improves that offense, he will improve upon his career best numbers. He has a distinct ability to get into the end zone over the last 5 years. He has not even reached his peak and he will have more TD's than any running back in the league over the next several years. MJD and ADP are the future of the NFL as far as RB's are concerned.

[mattb47]

TDs are not really the best (or even primary) indicator of talent. Sorry, but you can't tell me that MJD is more talented than guys like Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson...I'd even be hard pressed to say he's more "talented" than guys like Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson, and Frank Gore. Is he good at scoring TDs? Sure. Does that make him the most talented? Not really.

Also...you say he hasn't reached his peak and yet his efficiency slowly declines each season he's been in the league and moreso with the more touches he gets which isn't indicative of other backs who were very talented. He'll have to show something awfully special to even be considered in the conversation for most talented RB in the league for me. Right now, he's not even part of the discussion in my opinion.

Also, just throwing it out there but Michael Turner is a better TD RB than MJD is. Turner has averaged over 1 TD per start in 2 seasons in the league...so his average stats for a season includes over 16 TDs. Just saying.

[BigMusky]

when I have had the #1 draft pick I have always used a different philosophy and took the guy I considered least likely to bust. In my opinion that is not Chris Johnson. The key with the first pick is your swing picks in 2/3 round, the 1st pick will never make your team, but will kill it with a miss...

The other problem with the value draft philosophy is I would never take a guy in the first three rounds with intent to trade...that almost never works out.

[theimitator]

when I have had the #1 draft pick I have always used a different philosophy and took the guy I considered least likely to bust. In my opinion that is not Chris Johnson. [T]he 1st pick will never make your team, but will kill it with a miss...

This better articulates my idea. I think MJD stands over the other two because his bust-potential is less. He is a safer pick and so the number one pick.

The other problem with the value draft philosophy is I would never take a guy in the first three rounds with intent to trade...that almost never works out.

Agreed. (And the guy with the third pick is unwilling to trade.)

So now it comes to which creates a less-crappy feeling at year's end: a) going with my gut and being wrong or b) going against my gut and being wrong?

What's the Fonz's favorite letter?

[mattb47]

I mean if you try to trade down to still get MJD and can't do it and you REALLY like him more than the others...go with your gut. I still think it's not great value to do so but sometimes you have to do that to make sure you get guys you want and I know I've overpaid in the past for guys I was just really high on because I just wanted them. It's always more fun to get the guys you want to have and it's definitely easier to swallow if your team goes down but you went with your gut rather than going down because you didn't.

I was just trying to show why I'm not personally crazy high on him but I know that not everyone values the same guys and the same things that I do fantasy wise and I'm also nowhere near to always right. If you have the #1 pick and you like MJD the most, take him. I don't really agree with the "least likely to bust" drafting as that's a good way to make the playoffs consistently, but drafting the guys who could absolutely explode is how you win your league.

[theimitator]

I was just trying to show why I'm not personally crazy high on him but I know that not everyone values the same guys and the same things that I do fantasy wise and I'm also nowhere near to always right. If you have the #1 pick and you like MJD the most, take him. I don't really agree with the "least likely to bust" drafting as that's a good way to make the playoffs consistently, but drafting the guys who could absolutely explode is how you win your league.

I think you make some good points as to why you have him ranked lower than the other two. As a few have mentioned, having the top pick comes with a bit of pressure -- you don't want to squander the opportunity -- and that's why I'm trying to consider everything and not just go with the consensus.

I share the opinion that you don't win your league in the first round, but you can sure lose it. That's why I'm going for the best meat and potatoes player rather than, um, well, you get it. Having the horses to ride you to the playoffs is the first step; around the time the bye weeks start is when I start looking for the breakout candidates for the second half of the season.

[Instinctive]

Maybe MJD's high YPT stats the first season happened to be because he burst onto the scene late in the year against an easy schedule? And so since then, with the same or more touches, the YPT have gone down. And with more and more touches, you end up with lower averages because the outlying data points have less of an effect on the true mean of the data.

I doubt MJD is breaking down at an early age and with a relatively light careerload thus far (in comparison to, say, AD).


Now, "you can't win your league in the 1st round but you can lose it"

Definitely not true. Guys like LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk (multiple times) and Shaun Alexander in record-setting years had an incredibly disproportionate number of teams winning their leagues by having them as members. Heck, we can even add Chris Johnson of last year to the list.

If you hit that big time home run with your first round pick, you are in just as great a position to win your league as you are to lose it if you take Steve Slaton.