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Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

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Re: Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

Postby hardcore » Sun Aug 15, 2010 12:50 pm

mattb47 wrote:TDs are not really the best (or even primary) indicator of talent. Sorry, but you can't tell me that MJD is more talented than guys like Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson...I'd even be hard pressed to say he's more "talented" than guys like Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson, and Frank Gore. Is he good at scoring TDs? Sure. Does that make him the most talented? Not really. say he hasn't reached his peak and yet his efficiency slowly declines each season he's been in the league and moreso with the more touches he gets which isn't indicative of other backs who were very talented. He'll have to show something awfully special to even be considered in the conversation for most talented RB in the league for me. Right now, he's not even part of the discussion in my opinion.

Also, just throwing it out there but Michael Turner is a better TD RB than MJD is. Turner has averaged over 1 TD per start in 2 seasons in the his average stats for a season includes over 16 TDs. Just saying.

Yeah, you can't tell me Chris Johnson would have season he had with Jacksonville's crap offense and line. Short of ADP , only MJd would have gotten those numbers on Jacksonville. Rice and DWill wouldn't sniff what MJD achieved with the 24th rate offense. Rice surely would be a 5th rounder this year if he was on a crap team.
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Re: Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

Postby mattb47 » Sun Aug 15, 2010 6:05 pm

See...the problem is that you can make all the claims like that you want but none of it testable and therefore none of it holds any merit. Would CJ have had the kind of big year he had in Jacksonville instead of Tennessee? Who knows...he COULD have...tough to say a talented guy like him couldn't put up some astronomical numbers if they gave him the ball enough. Would Rice and DWill put up the number MJD has if they were in Jacksonville? Who knows...but I personally think they would have performed AT LEAST as well as he has.

Sorry dude...but the whole talent thing is mostly an opinion topic...and my opinion is that MJD is not in the conversation for most talented RB. I'd take all those guys I listed ahead of MJD in a pure talent discussion may not and that's fine, but it's an awfully hard argument to make based on what we've seen from all these players that MJD is the most talented RB in the league. Very, very tough.
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Re: Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

Postby justinj312 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 2:30 am

Can we end this thread over this MJD mancrush?

RIP, for the love of football and productive debates.

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Re: Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

Postby davidmarver » Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:13 pm

mattb47 wrote:See...the problem is that you can make all the claims like that you want but none of it testable and therefore none of it holds any merit.

But this equally applies to your analysis on yards per touch. Without a long-term, normalized, contextualized survey on yards per touch that concretely proves the point you're attempting to make, it's just as empty an analysis as saying 'there's a difference between Tennessee and Jacksonville that we can't accurately quantify, so I'm going to say that playing for Jacksonville has hurt MJD's statistics so far in his career'.

Not saying I agree that MJD is one of the best runningbacks in the NFL, but it would be absurd to assume that coaching style and talent of teammates doesn't affect a players' statistics; and I think it would be equally absurd to make the statement that MJD's cast over his career is anything better than below-average.

Now, this in itself doesn't make MJD the first pick of the draft. But I'm a firm believer that fantasy football, like real football, is a war of attrition, and that the bulk of fantasy championships are built on healthy early-round draft picks mixed with late-round steals. With that in mind, with the first overall pick I'm going to pick the guy that is the best candidate to produce all season at no worse than 80% his projected value. I don't think you can say that for many of the guys discussed at pick 1, besides Maurice Jones-Drew, and it's is a major reason why I think he's worth serious consideration as pick 1 in a re-draft format.
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Re: Am I Crazy for Thinking MJD Is #1?!

Postby gridiron-guru » Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:36 pm

theimitator wrote:...

I have them 1. MJD 2. ADP 3. CJ

So am I crazy? Help me out. Set me straight.

You are definately not crazy. I made the case in a blog post that I wrote that fantasy footabll gamers who value consistency could very easily take MJD #1 overall. You will not find a more consistent, safer bet than Drew in fantasy football this year. Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson are both bigger injury risks then MJD -- just for starters.

Don't let experts tell you how to pick. If your heart tells you MJD is the guy, take him and enjoy a season where you prove everyone wrong.
Heck, if everyone placed the same value on players then why play??! LOL

One last fun note about MJD -- you gotta love a guy that loves fantasy football. MJD has his own radio show! It may be a subtle value -- but you have to like a guy who knows fantasy owners are counting on him!

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