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LT looked good

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Re: LT looked good

Postby mattb47 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 6:33 pm

Azrael wrote:Please keep this thread alive and well. I will try to find other ways to get the LT hype train on track. Perhaps Greene will hardly play in much of the pre-season and LT will go nuts. That would be awesome.


Thing is...I think Greene is almost universally overrated already so if people die down on that a bit...all it will do is bring his value to where it probably should be.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby dgan » Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:51 pm

There are way too many LT haters out there. The chances of EVERYONE in your league letting Shonne Green fall to a position of value is next to impossible. He will be drafted as the last workhorse back rather than as one of the best RBBC backs. Among RB rankings, it is almost splitting hairs, but overall there should be more WRs going before the point where Green should get drafted.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby mattb47 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 8:00 pm

The way I see Greene is that he's probably a good bet for 300+ carries, not too many people will question that unless he just gets hurt or something. Downsides for me though is that he's unproven over any real period of time in the league...he was pretty fresh when he was running well late last year, he is a complete non-factor in the passing game, and he has one of the best RBs at scoring TDs we've ever seen in LT in the backfield with him. If there's one thing LT can and will do, it is score when you get down into the redzone and especially with the O-Line the Jets have.

So for me, 300 carries or not, he's not all that high with very limited reception upside and limited TD upside.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby dgan » Tue Aug 17, 2010 8:13 pm

mattb47 wrote:The way I see Greene is that he's probably a good bet for 300+ carries, not too many people will question that unless he just gets hurt or something. Downsides for me though is that he's unproven over any real period of time in the league...he was pretty fresh when he was running well late last year, he is a complete non-factor in the passing game, and he has one of the best RBs at scoring TDs we've ever seen in LT in the backfield with him. If there's one thing LT can and will do, it is score when you get down into the redzone and especially with the O-Line the Jets have.

So for me, 300 carries or not, he's not all that high with very limited reception upside and limited TD upside.


Absolutely. Cedric Benson is a great case study. He was a 1200+ yard rusher, but didn't have anything in the receiving dept and didn't see the endzone. He was barely a top 15 RB on a per start basis.

I actually think 300 carries is a ceiling for Greene. Jones stayed mostly healthy all year and only got 330. I think you'll see more of a split this year (something like 300/150), with McKnight also getting in the mix at some point picking up that Leon Washington role. And that is assuming that Greene stays healthy - he's not used to the full NFL season grind. He only got 15+ carries twice last year and still got injured twice (or injured, then reinjured...can't remember). He was injured several times at Iowa as well.

That is why I'm more inclined to treat him as an RBBC back like Wells. I don't think he's early 2nd round material, which is where I assume he's going.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby nimzox » Tue Aug 17, 2010 10:59 pm

mattb47 wrote:The way I see Greene is that he's probably a good bet for 300+ carries, not too many people will question that unless he just gets hurt or something. Downsides for me though is that he's unproven over any real period of time in the league...he was pretty fresh when he was running well late last year, he is a complete non-factor in the passing game, and he has one of the best RBs at scoring TDs we've ever seen in LT in the backfield with him. If there's one thing LT can and will do, it is score when you get down into the redzone and especially with the O-Line the Jets have.

So for me, 300 carries or not, he's not all that high with very limited reception upside and limited TD upside.

I agree with Matt. Even though LT isn't what he used to be, he still seems to have a nose to score when in the red zone. Greene doesn't catch a lot of passes, only has one season under his belt, and also has a bruising running style which could potentially lead to injury. Combining all these factors, I would be hesitant to draft Greene at his current ADP.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby Goody » Wed Aug 18, 2010 3:12 pm

dgan wrote:
mattb47 wrote:The way I see Greene is that he's probably a good bet for 300+ carries, not too many people will question that unless he just gets hurt or something. Downsides for me though is that he's unproven over any real period of time in the league...he was pretty fresh when he was running well late last year, he is a complete non-factor in the passing game, and he has one of the best RBs at scoring TDs we've ever seen in LT in the backfield with him. If there's one thing LT can and will do, it is score when you get down into the redzone and especially with the O-Line the Jets have.

So for me, 300 carries or not, he's not all that high with very limited reception upside and limited TD upside.


Absolutely. Cedric Benson is a great case study. He was a 1200+ yard rusher, but didn't have anything in the receiving dept and didn't see the endzone. He was barely a top 15 RB on a per start basis.

I actually think 300 carries is a ceiling for Greene. Jones stayed mostly healthy all year and only got 330. I think you'll see more of a split this year (something like 300/150), with McKnight also getting in the mix at some point picking up that Leon Washington role. And that is assuming that Greene stays healthy - he's not used to the full NFL season grind. He only got 15+ carries twice last year and still got injured twice (or injured, then reinjured...can't remember). He was injured several times at Iowa as well.

That is why I'm more inclined to treat him as an RBBC back like Wells. I don't think he's early 2nd round material, which is where I assume he's going.


Where should Greene be drafted? I am confused as the consensus is that Dwill, who is a RBBC back, is considered top 8 (which I agree), but Greene, who you are now saying is a RBBC back (which I agree) shouldn't be drafted at his ADP which is 2.05 in a 12 team non-ppr. I know Greene isn't "proven" but isn't it better to be proactive instead of reactive which means the value is lost if you wait for him to "prove" himself and he breaks out? I am not in disagreement with the things that have been discussed, just would like a further explanation. I just think Greene has far more value than wells do to his team, oline, number of carries, etc.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby dgan » Wed Aug 18, 2010 7:24 pm

Goody wrote:Where should Greene be drafted? I am confused as the consensus is that Dwill, who is a RBBC back, is considered top 8 (which I agree), but Greene, who you are now saying is a RBBC back (which I agree) shouldn't be drafted at his ADP which is 2.05 in a 12 team non-ppr. I know Greene isn't "proven" but isn't it better to be proactive instead of reactive which means the value is lost if you wait for him to "prove" himself and he breaks out? I am not in disagreement with the things that have been discussed, just would like a further explanation. I just think Greene has far more value than wells do to his team, oline, number of carries, etc.


That's what I'm saying. I'm not saying rank him any lower on your RB board. I'm just saying I would take a handful of WRs before I would take him. If you're into tiers, I think there is a big one about 10-12 RBs in, and then he leads off that next tier. Carolina runs the ball so much, it isn't fair to compare him to DWill. That's why I used the Benson example. If you're not receiving and having goal line carries taken away, you're not that hot of a commodity even if you think he'll run for 1300 yards. I would take him after the midpoint of the 2nd round, which means I know I'll never get him.

There is just too much downside there for him to be taken before proven elite WRs, IMO. But if you really think he'll have a breakout year, go for it. I just don't a real high liklihood of that happening. I feel the same way about Beanie Wells and Jamaal Charles, so this is nothing against the kid. I like him. I just don't like these unsettled backfield situations when I'm using a high pick on "potential". Mathews I'm ok using a high pick on "potential" because the backfield roles are clear.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby Azrael » Wed Aug 18, 2010 8:56 pm

Goody wrote:
Where should Greene be drafted? I am confused as the consensus is that Dwill, who is a RBBC back, is considered top 8 (which I agree), but Greene, who you are now saying is a RBBC back (which I agree) shouldn't be drafted at his ADP which is 2.05 in a 12 team non-ppr. I know Greene isn't "proven" but isn't it better to be proactive instead of reactive which means the value is lost if you wait for him to "prove" himself and he breaks out? I am not in disagreement with the things that have been discussed, just would like a further explanation. I just think Greene has far more value than wells do to his team, oline, number of carries, etc.


This has always been my theory. You wait until a guy is proven and you lose. Fantasy football is won with (along with luck) drafting studs and guy with potential that ring the register. Sometimes potential turns to crap, but if you litter your team with "safe" picks you'll lose I promise. I mean if you think the guy is going to have a 2009 Ced Benson year then pass on him and take Ced Benson in the 3rd. I think the guy is going to score touchdowns in the teens and have a 1,400+ rush season so I'll take him all day in the second. If injury is an argument, well anyone can get injured. AP was injured all the time in college and injured his rookie season. He's still the No. 1 or 2 pick.

I love the argument "guy isn't used to a full work load in an NFL season". Yeah, well who is? I think this argument is hogwash. NO ONE IS USED TO THE FULL WORK LOAD OF AN NFL SEASON UNTIL THEY GET ONE. Some guys get through, some guys get hurt.

First time down the field on Monday night when Sanchez hit an uncovered Brad Smith for a short TD, who was in the game? Greene.

I don't think LT is going to be the goal line guy. Sure he will steal a couple touchdowns like any back does that gets some playing time but he's not going to be in the game to steal TDs like LenWhale did to CJ his rookie year. Greene is a big, powerful young battering ram. This makes more sense to me than the LT's nose for the goal line argument.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby a1doug182 » Wed Aug 18, 2010 10:51 pm

I believe LT will get enough touches keep him in a decent football groove and to spell Greene which will result in him getting a few vulture TDs. He shouldn't take to much from Greene. They will want him fresh as possible so that he will have a better chance to withstand the punishment of being the feature back if something happens to Greene (injury). I just believe he is being brought in to be a good insurance policy for Greene.
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Re: LT looked good

Postby Goody » Thu Aug 19, 2010 8:52 am

dgan wrote:
Goody wrote:Where should Greene be drafted? I am confused as the consensus is that Dwill, who is a RBBC back, is considered top 8 (which I agree), but Greene, who you are now saying is a RBBC back (which I agree) shouldn't be drafted at his ADP which is 2.05 in a 12 team non-ppr. I know Greene isn't "proven" but isn't it better to be proactive instead of reactive which means the value is lost if you wait for him to "prove" himself and he breaks out? I am not in disagreement with the things that have been discussed, just would like a further explanation. I just think Greene has far more value than wells do to his team, oline, number of carries, etc.


That's what I'm saying. I'm not saying rank him any lower on your RB board. I'm just saying I would take a handful of WRs before I would take him. If you're into tiers, I think there is a big one about 10-12 RBs in, and then he leads off that next tier. Carolina runs the ball so much, it isn't fair to compare him to DWill. That's why I used the Benson example. If you're not receiving and having goal line carries taken away, you're not that hot of a commodity even if you think he'll run for 1300 yards. I would take him after the midpoint of the 2nd round, which means I know I'll never get him.

There is just too much downside there for him to be taken before proven elite WRs, IMO. But if you really think he'll have a breakout year, go for it. I just don't a real high liklihood of that happening. I feel the same way about Beanie Wells and Jamaal Charles, so this is nothing against the kid. I like him. I just don't like these unsettled backfield situations when I'm using a high pick on "potential". Mathews I'm ok using a high pick on "potential" because the backfield roles are clear.


I know what you are saying dgan and value your opinion as you do have a lot of valid points. The fact that you said he can't be compared to the DWill because Carolina runs the ball so much I do disagree with. NYJ ran the ball more than any other team last season and had a whopping 607 rush attempts. That is enough to go around and if Greene gets a good chunk of those carries (300 - 330+), he should be able to put up solid numbers. This also means there is a little bit of pie left for LT with McKnight thrown in there as well. I think LT is a decent value in late rounds due to this. Now I don't expect NYJ to rush the ball 607 times again, but 500 - 550 is very realistic. I just can't undervalue the NYJ Oline and offense that likes to run the rock. There is a reason people see him as an early second rounder compared to guys like Beanie and Jamaal Charles. I think Greene's situation is as "clear" as Matthews and may even be better IMO. The NYJ Oline is MUCH better than SD. SD is a passing offense where as NYJ is a power running team.

So the big question is, How many carries will LT get? Let's be conservative and estimate 500 rush attempts for NYJ. If Greene were to get 300 - 330, this leaves 170 - 200 carries left for LT/McKnight. Does LT see roughly 100? What if that number goes up from 500 to say 550? Is LT worth an 9 - 10 rnd pick in 12 team non-ppr?
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