pick your top 5 RB bust for 2010

[shawngee03]

every year a top 5 RB busts. last year Forte became a nightmare for whoever drafted him top 5

who will it be this year?

im going w Ray Rice. my reasoning...bc the guy in my main league who kept Forte last year and was so hyped on him kept Ray Rice thsi year and is hyped just the same

i know it has no relavence...but on of the top dogs has to bust

[TheRawDAWG]

CJ2k. Little speed backs with that many touches have a high chance of injury the next year.

Now, that's not say he's not going to be decent and fall off the map. Just not a top 10 back this year.

[murphysxm]

Shonn Greene screams bust to me. He's just to fragile to carry the ball that many times. I am also lower on Felix Jones than the hype.

[biju]

I think the rate at which the top 10 from last season do NOT make the top 10 the following season is around 50% (if I remember the stats we've done before) so the chances are pretty good that there will be a bust from the top 5. Let's look over who is currently listed as a top 5 pick:

1. Chris Johnson: There seems to be good reason to be cautious of Johnson and the number of touches he amassed last season. He had 358 rushes and 50 catches which puts him in dangerous levels for a healthy 2010 year (I fully acknowledge that it is impossible to predict injury and that the fabled "370 rule" is flawed to some extent). Tennessee didn't upgrade their WRs in the offseason so teams will be more likely to focus on the running game. Now having said that, I believe one of the big flaws DCs will admit to last season was their idea of *stacking* the line against a player who is faster than everyone else. This means when he breaks through he'll have a free shot at the endzone. I expect this year for them to play a bit further back to limit his big gains. I give him the potential to drop out of the top 5 a 60% chance.

2. Adrian Peterson: Up until yesterday I would have said the reason he could "bust" is that Brett Favre may not return (even though he put up better numbers without Favre there) so we're going to go a different route: injury. In 2009 Peterson had 365 carries and 46 receptions that went deep into the playoffs. In 2008 he tallied 363 rushes and 21 receptions. That's a lot of touches in two seasons and at some point the Vikings are going to be faced with either reducing his touches to preserve him or potentially risk his health. It's worth noting that Peterson's YPC have gone down in consecutive season now. I believe that is why they drafted Toby Gerhart in the 2nd round of the draft and that he'll get a non-trivial number of touches. But with keeping Peterson fresh it does also allow him to be a bit more effective. Chance of dropping out of the top 5 is 20%.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew: In MJDs first year as a full time starter he admirably withstood the workload that many were concerned with in the preseason. I think the biggest single concern I have with MJD is the Jaguars and their passing game to keep pressure off their running game. The Jags seem defiant in keeping Garrard as their QB and their WRs are young, developing players. I can see Jones-Drew's YPC going down this year to an unacceptable level which might mean a greater RBBC split with Jennings and possibly Karim. Along with that might be the TDs, which were MJD's bread and butter last season. I give him a 40% chance of dropping out of the top 5.

4. Ray Rice: Clearly the most unproven of the top 5 backs, he'll need to show that he can handle the load across and entire season. He did take the job and run with it well from about week 8 on, but if I were a betting man I'd put my money here as a near guarantee of slipping out of the top 5. Not that he may drop very far (read: not necessarily a bust, but not in the top 5) but my concern is workload and a potential to fail during the worst time: the FF playoffs. I give him a 80% chance to slipping out of the top 5, although I'd also say it's less than 20% that he'll drop out of the top 10.

5. Michael Turner: As a fringe top 5 player you automatically get a 60% chance. As a player who has relied heavily on TDs to sustain his position I'd also throw 20% on there. But Turner is one of the most consistent players while on the field. I don't see a reason to believe that last year's injuries were anything more than fluke and then a team trying to rush back their star player. If Matt Ryan doesn't continue to regress as a QB (in fact, I have him for a bounce back year) I have a tough time seeing any more % points going to Turner. If Ryan has a strong year, I would consider taking back 20%. But since we can't be certain of this, Turner stays at 80% chance to fall out of the top 5.

(I just wrote all that up assuming you meant which top 5 RB was going to bust, but realized you could have meant "name 5 RBs that will bust according to their ADP. Hope I got the correct one. )

[shawngee03]

yes..a top 5 Rb that will bust ..not 5 RBs

which actually shoudl be top 4....since #5 is up for debate

[TheRawDAWG]

yes..a top 5 Rb that will bust ..not 5 RBs

which actually shoudl be top 4....since #5 is up for debate

True, because Turner was NOT a top 5 back this past year. The whole process of going through the 50% of top 10 backs from one year to the next not making it is including the one year wonders....and that is probably who finished 5th last year. In my league that guy was Thomas Jones after the big 4. Can't see him getting to the top 5 this year. So I'll give him a 99% chance of falling out of the top 5. Ricky Williams was a top 10 back, I'll give him a 75% chance of dropping out. Joseph Addai? Jamal Charles? All guys that will drop out of the top 10 in the RB ranks. But also guys that for the most part are not being drafted as top 10 backs.

Can't say Mike Turner has an 80% chance to drop out if he's not one of the guys that finished there. And going by your 50% of top 10s drop out that must be what you are going by.


Nice analysis though. I do tend to agree with it. Although I could see Rice being the #1 by the end of the year. He will still get his catches and if he can get more of the GL TDs he will score around 15 total TDs with 2000 plus yards. That is a BEAST!!!

[biju]

Well, I was going by the first five RBs that are going off the boards. Frank Gore should have been in the conversation as well I suppose.

If we were merely going by the end of the year standings we'd need to establish the scoring system, but I think in the conversation would be Frank Gore (probably will be a fringe top 5 guy in 2010), Thomas Jones (I'm not sure how anyone would think he'll even be in the top 10 by the end of the year; he'll be lucky to crack the top 20), Ricky Williams (helped by Ronnie Brown being injured; will be a fringe top 15 in 2010), Joseph Addai (TDs saved his season and that's a terrible thing to rely on), Ryan Grant (fringe top 10), Steven Jackson (fringe top 10), and Jamaal Charles (fringe top 10, although could fall down toward 20).

[LS2throwed]

I think it's tough to predict a bust and say he will be injured, especially if your just going to say because he's small or a speed back. I'll buy the curse of 370 carries, or extended training camp holdouts, something along those lines though. If your expecting CJ to produce 2000 something yards again then yea he could very well bust, I'd expect 1500, but the guy is motivated for a huge deal and to be league MVP along with the single season rushing record, I honestly think he can do it. He's arrogant, but he works incredibly hard to reach his goals.


He was talking a big game all last off-season and all he did was back it up. If the people are expecting him to be a bust, I'm wondering what you would do at #2 overall if you had the pick and Peterson went first. Would you pass him up, or take him and trade him? Just curious.

[justinj312]

I think Gore might bust. I just get the feeling he is gonna breakdown this year. I don't like the SF OL yet (maybe later in the year or next year). And I think Singletary may overuse him and suffer the consequences.

Also SJax. No way I am touching him and his injury history in that pop-gun, rookie qb, mess of a team.

[TG Baraka]

Assuming Gore is number 5 I'd have to pick him for his injury risk and who knows if Westbrook could steal some catches or whatever, but picking Gore is too easy and no fun. So, out of the clear top 4 my pick is Chris Johnson. Out of the top 4 RBs he has the slightest build and imo that makes him more susceptible to injury. Because he relies on speed for his game more than just about any other player in the NFL even the smallest injury that slows him down would be detrimental to him while with other players this loss of speed would be less important. He also had a really large number of touches last year and I can't see the Titans gameplan being as run heavy as last year with the WRs and Vince Young futher developing and the coach wanting to save Chris Johnson for the playoffs as last year they had no shot after the first 6 or 7 weeks.
You can make a case with all of the top 4 picks, but if Chris Johnson has a year where he is even outside the top 6 or 7 RBs at the end of the year he will be considered a bust.