Fantasy Football Cafe Forum

by **Stelly** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 9:25 am

SJax obviously has lots of concerns coming into this season - injury history, off-season back surgery, bad team, rookie QB. He also has a lot of upside. On a horrible offense last season, he still put up 1,700 total yards (but only 4 TDs). He was the 10th ranked RB in my league. When he plays, he's a stud. The "when" part is the problem.

His current ADP seems to be in the back end of the first round for a 10-team league. His name has popped up in several threads where people mention that that won't draft him, or don't think he's worth a first round pick.

My question is this...if SJax falls in your draft, where do you think his value lies this year?

by **Goody** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 10:40 am

For me, I have the 9th pick in my 12 team non-ppr and I won't touch him unless he falls to me in the 2nd round (2.04).

by **Reg** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 1:00 pm

I think if he slips past 12 or so, and you don't REALLY want one of the WRs left, I would take him

by **Purple1** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 1:26 pm

For me Jackson has always been a guy I avoid esspecially since the down turn of the rams a few years ago.

He's a good back but in the position you have to take him its just not worth it imo. I prefer drafting a good WR or QB from a good offense in the end of the first early second round over a good RB on a really bad team. The Rams are really bad and not getting better anytime soon. I wouldn't want to have to be conserned with hoping the rams score every sunday, I have a feeling it could be a long stressfull FF season if thats the case.

I know I wouldn't even consider drafting him till late 3rd, 4th round in my leagues(my leagues scoring are not as yardage heavy as most). Standard scoring leagues I guess I could see why it would be tempting to draft him in the 1st/second but I would probably still go with a RB on a better team or WR, QB in that spot.

In fact I've found over the years that avoiding most of the 2nd-3rd teir RBs all together tends to work out better for me.

by **murphysxm** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:10 pm

I personally think the bad team arguement is flawed. Barry Sanders played for the Lions, but did alright. Talent overcomes bad situations. It's how fragile he is that has me scared. I don't see me taking him unless I have about pick 18 or so.

help me if you can
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=469623

by **A Fleshner Fantasy** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:23 pm

murphysxm wrote:I personally think the bad team arguement is flawed. Barry Sanders played for the Lions, but did alright. Talent overcomes bad situations. It's how fragile he is that has me scared. I don't see me taking him unless I have about pick 18 or so.

I think Barry Sanders is the exception, not the rule. No one is claiming that SJAX is Barry Sanders, so I think that his situation is actually a huge factor, especially given his fragility.

by **murphysxm** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 7:29 pm

The Rams have been horrible his whole career and he has been drafted in the first round for half a decade. What has changed this year? 1400 yards in 2009, 1000 in 2008, 1000 in 2007, 1500 in 2006. Say what you want, but he gets his. Throw in the 40 catches that are guaranteed..... I don't want him as my 1st rounder, but that is were his value is

by **markulous** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 11:40 pm

Their O-line is underrated. If the line can stay healthy and play to their ability, he should have a great season. And despite being a rookie and won't throw more than 15 TDs, Bradford is the best QB they've had in a while. So he should at least be able to help S-Jax out a little more than what he had to work with the past couple of years. In a PPR league, I'm not sure I could pass on him at 7 or lower unless a top pick fell.

by **Guru13** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:52 pm

markulous wrote:Their O-line is underrated. If the line can stay healthy and play to their ability, he should have a great season. And despite being a rookie and won't throw more than 15 TDs, Bradford is the best QB they've had in a while. So he should at least be able to help S-Jax out a little more than what he had to work with the past couple of years. In a PPR league, I'm not sure I could pass on him at 7 or lower unless a top pick fell.

3 or 4 months ago I would've agreed with you - but outside of Brown and Saffold looked good against Allen last week, the Rams O-Line has been embarrassing thus far. Jason Smith, the number 2 overall pick from a year ago looks like he would have trouble blocking me.

by **moochman** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:38 pm

I think S Jax's is valued pretty well, middle of first in PPR leagues and late to mid round in non PPR leagues. His risk, both injury and shakey QB/O-line/team in general keep him from breaking top 5 and elite potential keep him in the 6-16 range. Sadly, this places him in the murky pseudo-studs that you can't help but feel won't live up to value. You gotta take the chance, but that uneasy feeling lingers. Seems this year that uncertainty is starting earlier in the draft. You've the top 5 RBs; ADP, CJ4.24, MJD, Rice, Turner. And two WRs; AJ and Moss. After that, its the S Jaxes of the world. Round 2 should be sponsored by Rolaids this year.