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Steven Jackson's Value

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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby Cooner » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:43 pm

I've complained a bit about him in several threads, and only sort of laid out my issues with him, so here goes. I've owned him for about 4 years in a keeper league, so I've watched his stats for a while now, since his monster-year of 06/07 (in which he got 1500 yards rushing and another 800 receiving... then teams started keying on him in the pass game as well as the rushing game).

Code: Select all
  year  games    yards    tds
2007-08   12       1273   6
2008-09   12       1427   8   
2009-10   15       1738   4   


This value place him as the 13th (08/09) and 10th (09/10) best RB (not sure on '07/08, but I suspect it was worse than 13th). Now, even last year, when he played 15 games, he was hampered on and off by nagging injuries. And while he racked up yards last year thanks to a continually very solid 4.4 Yards per attempt, his team never got him into the red zone, so he netted only 4 TDs (and we should note that of those four, one came on a 26 yard scamper, and another came off of a turnover by the opposition in their own red zone. Only two TDs off of what one might call "scoring drives").

Let's be honest -- the Rams still suck. They haven't really done anything this offseason to expect that they're going to get into the red zone. They scored a whopping 12 points per game less than the median NFL team, and 5 fewer points per game than any other team in the league than the Raiders (who still scored 2 points per game more than the Rams). And while Bradford is better than they've had, they still allowed the 8th or 9th most sacks last season of any team (and started out again this year by letting Bradford get drilled a few times already in preseason). You can call their OLine underrated if you want, but I'd say that SJax makes their offensive line look better than it is.

Steven Jackson is a very easy player to predict and to project. He's got talent, and 4.4 per attempt with opposing teams keying on him is rather impressive. But he's simply not going to see the end zone enough to be an elite first round talent. 4 is anomolously low, but 5-7 total TDs seems a reasonable number. With the workload and the pounding he gets, it's not surprising that he hasn't had a fully-healthy season since '06. I think 14 games is a reasonable estimate. At 115 total yards per game (which is remarkably consistent throughout his career), that puts him at a very solid season of, let's say, ~1600 yards and 6 TDs. That will be good enough to, once again, put him at about the 10th or 11th ranked RB.

Now, the other question is whether we can pick those 10ish guys who deserve to be drafted above him. I don't think that's very hard actually --

1-4 ADP, MJD, Rice, CJ (in no particular order, do you really care?)
5-6 Turner/Gore

Some people start to put Jackson here, but I just don't see it. Mendenhall gets the easy nod, both on last season and the fact that he's sure to see more carries at the start of the season, and the Steeler's stated intention to involve him in the passing game more this season as well. I'm penning him in as my number 7.

Then we've got DeAngelo Williams, Ryans Grant and Matthews, Shonn Greene, and let's toss in Cedric Benson and Jamaal Charles. I think this is the tier that Steven Jackson fits in. I know people love the kids here (Matthews, Greene, and Charles), but I'm a bit of an old fart when it comes to this sort of thing, and I'd rather go with the proven thing to anchor my running backs. But, I'm taking Grant and his proven offense before Jackson for sure. Jackson actually gets some credit here for being reliable, in that you know he won't be a bust when he plays, whereas we can't say the same thing about all of these guys. My next guy is DeAngelo Williams, but then I think I'm taking Jackson. (Followed by Matthews or Charles, Greene, and Benson, in that order, if you're keeping track, and yes, I know I"m a bit low on Greene, but I think LT is going to get some real time there).

So I'm taking Jackson as my 10th RB. In a 12 team league, I'd consider AJ a better choice than Jackson as well. And if I'm sitting at pick 11, I'd rather have Jackson + Wayne or CJ than Moss + one of the kids. So I'd take him at pick 11. If he falls that far (which he likely doesn't).
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby a1doug182 » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:12 am

I think S Jax's is valued pretty well, middle of first in PPR leagues and late to mid round in non PPR leagues. His risk, both injury and shakey QB/O-line/team in general keep him from breaking top 5 and elite potential keep him in the 6-16 range. Sadly, this places him in the murky pseudo-studs that you can't help but feel won't live up to value. You gotta take the chance, but that uneasy feeling lingers. Seems this year that uncertainty is starting earlier in the draft. You've the top 5 RBs; ADP, CJ4.24, MJD, Rice, Turner. And two WRs; AJ and Moss. After that, its the S Jaxes of the world. Round 2 should be sponsored by Rolaids this year.[/quote]


I have to disagree. I just don"t believe that you have to take anyone with that much risk in the 1st. In fact I believe that the 1st round is about taking top players that you can rext easy that they are goin to produce for you at a high level with the least risk. You need to go into the season feeling like you have as close to locks as possible from the first few rounds. its in the middle round (somewhat) and later rounds that you take your higher risk players. Just MY opinion.
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby justinj312 » Sun Aug 22, 2010 2:46 am

I think it would be a miracle for SJax to have a 2 TD game. I'll pass until mid 2nd.
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby Cooner » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:57 pm

a1doug182 wrote:
moochman wrote:I think S Jax's is valued pretty well, middle of first in PPR leagues and late to mid round in non PPR leagues. His risk, both injury and shakey QB/O-line/team in general keep him from breaking top 5 and elite potential keep him in the 6-16 range. Sadly, this places him in the murky pseudo-studs that you can't help but feel won't live up to value. You gotta take the chance, but that uneasy feeling lingers. Seems this year that uncertainty is starting earlier in the draft. You've the top 5 RBs; ADP, CJ4.24, MJD, Rice, Turner. And two WRs; AJ and Moss. After that, its the S Jaxes of the world. Round 2 should be sponsored by Rolaids this year.



I have to disagree. I just don"t believe that you have to take anyone with that much risk in the 1st. In fact I believe that the 1st round is about taking top players that you can rext easy that they are goin to produce for you at a high level with the least risk. You need to go into the season feeling like you have as close to locks as possible from the first few rounds. its in the middle round (somewhat) and later rounds that you take your higher risk players. Just MY opinion.


I actually agree with both of you completely, in sentiment at least.

I'd love to see a list of 12 players that had a 75% chance of scoring 60 points more than the replacement player at their position. I can't come up with 12, let alone 24. Mooch's list is almost identical to mine. The scary thing is that if you're looking to minimize risk in early rounds, you should really be drafting only those 5, plus AJ, plus Ryan Grant, and then Steven Jackson. His value actually goes up relative to Shonn Greene if your goal is to minimize risk, and that's WITH the injury questions!
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby BigMusky » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:38 pm

I have no problem with him as my #2 back...but I can not take someone in 1st round that I do not expect to be available for playoffs. This is not a roto league. I think the value in SJax is in 8 or 10 team leagues where if you are one of last two drafters you can take him 1st or 2nd and come right back and hedge your bet with another solid player.
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby SniperShot » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:48 pm

In one of my leagues the scoring is favored a bit more towards yardage/high performance over just scoring TD's. I might think of taking him a bit earlier in a scoring system like that but overall I doubt I would think about him in the first round even late in any standard scoring format.

I agree with others in the thread, thinking mid (maybe early) 2nd round, I wouldn't really think of taking him any higher than that personally. The Rams are shaky and haven't done much this offseason to improve. Even though Sjax is crazy talent when he's healthy I tend to avoid players in shaky offenses/teams as a rule of thumb. Obviously if he slips I'll pounce but that wouldn't be till at least the 4th or 5th pick of the second round.
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby Sex Panther » Tue Aug 24, 2010 7:21 am

Cannot argue his talent, he is a phenomianl talent in a really bad situation, coupled with the health risks he's a guy I always want on my squad, but not at the typical asking price...

IMO, CJ4.24, AP, MJD, Rice, Gore, Turner, and AJ are the first 7 off the board in any format that doesn't start 2 QB.

After those 7 is when the debate (guessing) really starts.

IMO...

Moss is worth a 1st round pick, so that's 8 (although I think 8 is too early)

In most leagues 2 QB's - Brees and Rodgers will probably be drafted (I don't agee with it, but I think it's gonna happen) - that makes 10.

Take you pick on who goes next - IMO, DWill & SJax make the most sense to me. Mendenhall, Greene, & Matthews are also being looked at in the first.

In mocks I have done over on craptastic Yahoo (drafting from the 6th slot in 12 team format), about 1/2 of the time SJax or DeAngelo (or both) are sitting there for me in the middle of the second (which I really don't think is going to happen come real draft day). I think both DWill and SJax are absolute steals at that point in the draft - SJax (and Dwill) are both capable of turning in top 5 seasons, and both (if they can stay healthy) are virtual locks at top 10 seasons at their positions - both have done it before, that is what I'm looking for from my early picks.

I only know my draft positionin one of the leagues I'm in this year - drafting 6th out of 12 in a WR/WR/RB/RB/Flex .5 PPR league.

From the 6th slot, I'm going on the assumption that 2 of the 3 out of Gore, Turner, and AJ are going to be there for me.

If Sjax is there at 2.07 - I'm hoping all over him.

Long story short, Sjax is guy I would love to be able to land with my 2nd pick - at this point in his career, w/ the StL situation and the durability concerns, IMO I'm not sure if he can be counted on as the centerpiece or cornerstone of a fantasy squad, but he can be an extremely valubable asset.
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby Cooner » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:30 pm

I'm starting to question my arguments against Steven Jackson, thanks to the play of Sam Bradford in the preseason. Can anyone give me some intel on this... were his 6 of 6 and a TD vs Baltimore and his two TD performance vs NE "just preseason" or "the real deal?" Can he provide a spark to get Jackson the red-zone opportunities he needs to make a first round pick a legit option?
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby moochman » Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:19 pm

Cooner wrote:I'm starting to question my arguments against Steven Jackson, thanks to the play of Sam Bradford in the preseason. Can anyone give me some intel on this... were his 6 of 6 and a TD vs Baltimore and his two TD performance vs NE "just preseason" or "the real deal?" Can he provide a spark to get Jackson the red-zone opportunities he needs to make a first round pick a legit option?



Don't throw away the arguments, nothing is proven by watching a rook QB do well vs vanilla Ds. Once the season starts the league puts away the vanilla and breaks out the rocky road :-D
Then we'll see if Bradford can take enough heat off of S Jax.
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Re: Steven Jackson's Value

Postby Cooner » Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:48 pm

moochman wrote:
Cooner wrote:I'm starting to question my arguments against Steven Jackson, thanks to the play of Sam Bradford in the preseason. Can anyone give me some intel on this... were his 6 of 6 and a TD vs Baltimore and his two TD performance vs NE "just preseason" or "the real deal?" Can he provide a spark to get Jackson the red-zone opportunities he needs to make a first round pick a legit option?



Don't throw away the arguments, nothing is proven by watching a rook QB do well vs vanilla Ds. Once the season starts the league puts away the vanilla and breaks out the rocky road :-D
Then we'll see if Bradford can take enough heat off of S Jax.


Oh, I'm not throwing them out the window for sure. Just hoping for a bit of potential relief there. Bradford doesn't have to be good to add 20-40 points to SJax's fantasy total though... he only has to be not horrendous. It's nigh impossible to get that many touches and looks and only score 4 TDs... it takes a special collaboration of ineptitude to do that. A mediocre Bradford only has to add a few scoring drives over the course of the season to push Jackson from "overrated, draft beginning of the 2nd in a 12 teamer" to "reliable when healthy, safe play for middle-end of the first".

I love the ice cream analogy though, and point very much taken! :)
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