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The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby jdogg_ffc » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:06 pm

It really depends on your league.
I played on a Cafe league before and the RBs just flew off the board. Something like 28 of first 30 picks were RB. So if you didn't draft a RB early you were in big trouble.
I've also played in leagues where most get at least one QB and one WR in first three rounds.
In those leagues you can get RB values in rounds 4-5 (for example yesterday I got Forte round 4, and Foster round 5, Addai round 7, and Ahmad Bradshaw and T. Jones in rounds 9-10. Hopefully at least 2 will pan out.
All drafts are diff. best advise in IMO is BPA.
First the Shock, then the Pistons can the Lions be next?

Well maybe next yr.

PS I didn't lose a paper bag challenge but somehow as a Lion's fan it just feels right.
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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby bostonsoxandy » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:59 pm

bungle613 wrote:
bostonsoxandy wrote:
mr2xxx wrote:What team would you rather have? Does anyone feel that one team is clearly superior to the other?
Both are 12 team PPR
Team 1: QB: Kolb, E. Manning RB: MJD, A. Foster, R. Bush, J. Stewart WR: B. Marsh, M. Austin, Nicks, D. Aromash, Massaqoi TE: Winslow
Team 2: QB: Shuab, Moore RB: Bush, Hightower, Portis, Hardesty, L. Washington WR: A. Johnson, Jennings, Welker,Ward, M. Williams (TB) TE: Gates

Team 1 ( 4 spot) Only max 4 RB's on roster, this was my real draft.
Team 2 ( 5 Spot) I didn't start picking RB's till Rounds 6 in this mock draft.


I thought waiting so late for a RB's was a horrible strategy but now I think both its a viable strategy from this small sample. I agree with the fact that if we go to 18 games, waiting for RB's is a greats strategy but we are not their yet. The problem with RB's in my league is you can only have 4 so less chances hit on a mid-to-late round RB, but better chance of getting a quality waiver wire pick up. I think The best strategy more dependent on your position than anything else. In my draft should I have passesd on MJD for AJ, I don't think so. I feel that If you should get 2 WR's and a RB with your first 3 picks any way you want but then be flexible afterwards and draft BPA mostly because players always fall that you didn't think would.


Like how do you end up with MJD, Foster, JStew, Marshall, Austin, Nicks....most unrealistic 2 scenarios...and team 2---who was their second round pick?!?!? you telling me Jennings in the early 2nd rd?!??! And they had to take a RB in round 5 and your telling me best available was Reggie Bush??? While in round 5 of the other league (with MJD, Marshall, Austin, Foster first 4), JStew in the 5th??? come on....atleast make a realistic scenario..


Instead of jumping on him why don't you read his post. He draftetd the 2nd team in the 5th slot in a 12 team PPR.

1.05 - AJ
2.08 - Jennings
3.05 - Welker
4.08 - Gates or Schaub
5.05 - opposite of above.

All absolutely reasonable and he said he didn't take a back until the 6th.

Team 1 I will guess he drafted earlier in the month and got lucky as well. Also a 12 team PPR

1.04 - MJD
2.09 - Austin
3.04 - Marshall (lucky, shouldn't have been there)
4.09 - Stewart
5.04 - Nicks

Foster he probably got while there was still big question marks, as for Stewart... in a quality PPR league I have seen him go as late as 7-9.


Yeah see, even trying to defend him you have to make several reaches...like that it was done very very early (2/3 weeks ago) so that Foster is a freebie basically (can't this be done on Team 2 as well if it was a similar scenario?!??!) and Marshall falling atleast 15-20 spots too far in a PPR league....
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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby bungle613 » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:18 pm

Well, at least I looked at his post and tried to see what he was saying instead of just jumping down the guys throat. Maybe you should do the same next time. I've read several of your posts in here and you want to talk about completely off base and made up facts.... look in a mirror dude. You essentially called the guy a liar and that doesn't fly with me.
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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby mr2xxx » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:31 am

Both drafts were done within a day of each other. One was an actual live draft and the other was a mock done on fantasycalculator.com.It might be unfair to compare people in a league with friends were you actually know each vs. a mock draft website that attracts more of the "hardcore" players.

I'm aware that the actual draft I lucked out on some picks but it tends happen. Thats why you have to capitalize on peoples mistakes and draft BPA, instead of putting all my eggs in one position and having to reach later. In my actual league it has become more competitive but people still succumb to runs on certain positions like TE,QB and DEF. which I took advantage of.

For team 2 I could not pass up on Gates in the 5th, especially in a PPR leauge. And yes those were the best RB's left from the 6th on on. The cupboards were bare at that point.

I'll try a few more mocks from the same site and post my results later so we can continue the discussion.
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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby justinj312 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:48 am

1.05 - AJ
2.08 - Jennings
3.05 - Welker
4.08 - Gates or Schaub
5.05 - opposite of above.


Who drafts a TE before their RB1??
This only proves bad decisionmaking screw up any type of drafting.
thx

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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby Hippo45 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:43 am

I didn't take the time to read all the posts (only 2 pages) so sorry if this has already been said.

First off both strategies can work out. The true key to success is picking the right be people. You could do well last year taking Chris Johnson early and taking Matt Schaub late. Likewise, you could have done well taking Rodgers early and taking Ray Rice late. Both would have helped your team tremendously.

So it is important to go with the strategy that gives you the best odds of winning. I think it is going with a qb late and picking up another qb to give you a solid rotation.

Comparing the top running back to the 12th ranked running back on a week to week basis looks like this:
Chris Johnson: outscored Charles 12 out 15 weeks (I removed the byes because they would obviously do better than the other player)

Now comparing the top quarterback to the 12th ranked quarterback on a week to week basis looks like this:
Aaron Rodgers: outscored Jay Cutler 10 out of 16 weeks (they had the same bye week)

So yes Rodgers did well, but only was better than the baseline starter 10 times compared to Johnson's 12 times. Also, if they had the same bye week Johnson would have most likely done better than Charles in 13 weeks.

This to me looks like a top rb is more consistent on a week to week basis and thus more valuable. Your elite qb has a greater chance of putting up less than elite numbers. This is mainly because quarterbacks seem to be more affected by difficult match ups compared to the running backs
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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby CBMGreatOne » Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:05 am

You may very well be right, but your example is a bad one because Charles didn't earn the role that he finished the season with until about week 10. I'd rather see such a comparison done between Chris Johnson and a top 10ish back that actually had the same role throughout the year.
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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby bostonsoxandy » Wed Sep 01, 2010 8:15 pm

bungle613 wrote:Well, at least I looked at his post and tried to see what he was saying instead of just jumping down the guys throat. Maybe you should do the same next time. I've read several of your posts in here and you want to talk about completely off base and made up facts.... look in a mirror dude. You essentially called the guy a liar and that doesn't fly with me.


Well it seems like he used that "data" to hint at the conclusion that waiting on RB's a bad theory...just seemed that way to me
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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby bostonsoxandy » Wed Sep 01, 2010 8:19 pm

mr2xxx wrote:Both drafts were done within a day of each other. One was an actual live draft and the other was a mock done on fantasycalculator.com.It might be unfair to compare people in a league with friends were you actually know each vs. a mock draft website that attracts more of the "hardcore" players.

I'm aware that the actual draft I lucked out on some picks but it tends happen. Thats why you have to capitalize on peoples mistakes and draft BPA, instead of putting all my eggs in one position and having to reach later. In my actual league it has become more competitive but people still succumb to runs on certain positions like TE,QB and DEF. which I took advantage of.

For team 2 I could not pass up on Gates in the 5th, especially in a PPR leauge. And yes those were the best RB's left from the 6th on on. The cupboards were bare at that point.

I'll try a few more mocks from the same site and post my results later so we can continue the discussion.


You can't really put side to side/head to head 2 leagues if the skill level of the two leagues is completely different....thats just not relevant...or helpful...like if you re-did the second draft using the people still available in teh first draft it should look something like this:
Andre Johnson, Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, Arian Foster, Jonathan Stewart....
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Re: The Argument Against RB in 1st round (or for WR/QB in 1st)

Postby jdogg_ffc » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:00 pm

Only real reason I tend not to hit the RBs to hard and early is
1 My league tends to overvalue QBs and WRs in the draft.
2 By watching waivers more than most I can usually add at least one quality RB during the yr.
3 More RBs get hurt IMO during the yr so more seem to come out of the woodworks during the yr.
First the Shock, then the Pistons can the Lions be next?

Well maybe next yr.

PS I didn't lose a paper bag challenge but somehow as a Lion's fan it just feels right.
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