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The #5 Pick Overall is Annoying this Year!!!

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Re: The #5 Pick Overall is Annoying this Year!!!

Postby Goody » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:30 am

Metropolitans wrote:I really like the idea of snatching up Michael Turner or Frank Gore here but the idea of going WR-WR in Rds 1 and 2 is just too enticing... so far its been like Andre-BMarshall-Wells-Moreno... which i LOVE! i dont know... maybe i could go... Turner-Marshall-Boldin-Moreno... i like that too!! Still experimenting with different strategies!! will be back to document my favorite approach... once i develop one!!! (maybe WR-WR-RB-TE-RB ????) :-?


It is NEVER a good idea to go into a draft with a set approach. The real draft is always different than any mocks you can do and it is a recipe for disaster to have a set approach going in IMO. I really think at 5 you need to grab Turner or Gore and then grab some WR in the next 2 rounds or another RB if a good one falls to you. I have always drafted with the BPA (Best Player Available) approach and it has worked quite well. ;-D
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Re: The #5 Pick Overall is Annoying this Year!!!

Postby Metropolitans » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:52 pm

Goody wrote:
Metropolitans wrote:I really like the idea of snatching up Michael Turner or Frank Gore here but the idea of going WR-WR in Rds 1 and 2 is just too enticing... so far its been like Andre-BMarshall-Wells-Moreno... which i LOVE! i dont know... maybe i could go... Turner-Marshall-Boldin-Moreno... i like that too!! Still experimenting with different strategies!! will be back to document my favorite approach... once i develop one!!! (maybe WR-WR-RB-TE-RB ????) :-?


It is NEVER a good idea to go into a draft with a set approach. The real draft is always different than any mocks you can do and it is a recipe for disaster to have a set approach going in IMO. I really think at 5 you need to grab Turner or Gore and then grab some WR in the next 2 rounds or another RB if a good one falls to you. I have always drafted with the BPA (Best Player Available) approach and it has worked quite well. ;-D


Yeah, Goody, youre 100% correct in the BPA approach, its the right thing to do. But with that said, I do know exactly who will be available to me at #5 Overall. Im becoming more and more interested at the potential prospect of Turner at #5 Overall, even though Andre was my original choice here, it is not a PPR League and "the Burner" is a TD Machine. Plus the Atlanta Offense should be better this season as the corp (Ryan, Turner, Tony G, and Roddy White) has their 3rd season together coming up, they should gel together great! With that said, I do like the idea of snatching up Ryan Matthews in the 2nd Round, but there are sooooo many High Ceiling RBs going in Rds 3-6, id feel guilty having to pass on all of them and take 3 WRs. Actually, theres NO CHANCE of me passing on RB in Rds 3-6, infact, i plan on taking atleast 2 RBs in these 3 Rds. I definitely agree with the BPA (Best Player Available) approach, but with that said, after doing enough Mock Drafts, you tend to get an "idea" of who the potential BPA's will be. You dont wanna script your entire draft, bc it never shakes out how you planned. I like to go into Drafts with a list of players that are my "Targets" and/or players who provide great value bc they should grossly out-produce their ADP. It just so happens that on 2010, a lot of my players on this list ARE NOT WRs... what that means to me is this, I only have a couple of WRs on my "sleeper" list, so I would feel more comfortable drafting "Elite WRs" early, mixing in 1 "Elite RB", and then a bunch of High Upside RBs to compete for that RB2/Flex Position. The key to this strategy is avoiding the Land-mine (NOT Jersey Shore Land-mines! haha), and by land-mine, i mean avoiding the "Elite Player" who becomes "formerly elite" and drops out of the Top 3 Rounds due to a Bust Season or an Injury Plagued year. Obviously, injuries arent always predictable, but poor situations, and less than ideal match-ups are predictable. Offensive Lines, Strength of Passing Schedule, Strength of Rushing Schedule, and Overall Strength of Schedule can assist you in determining who could be in for a "down year" or conversely, who could be in for a "career year".

Ive even tossed around the idea of going Turner-Manning-Boldin-Clark in Rounds 1-2-3-4... gives you an "Elite Player" at the 4 Primary Positions. Its a great basis of a Fantasy Roster and ensures that you wont be too weak at any given position, and since RB is SOOO Deep, you can even grab a WR in Rd 5 (such as OchoCinco, Crabtree, etc) or you could even snatch up Knowshon Moreno if youre concerned with RB and have some High Upside WRs that can be had in that 6-10th Rd range.

I dunno, these are just some draft strategies that Ive tossed around in Mock Drafts. The one directly above (the RB-QB-WR-TE Strategy) is extremely intriguing and Im seriously considering it! I still agree with the Best Player Available concept, but after doing enough Mock Drafts, you begin to realize that there are more than likely going to be certain players available in each round who would constitute as the BPA. Or, ill put it another way, given the flow of the draft, or the ADP, there are certain positions that have later potential than others. Like, in my opinion, there are A LOT of 3-6th Rd RBs who have GREAT upside, and the WR has a SERIOUS drop-off from Tiers 1 and 2, down to Tiers 3 and 4. In a 10-Team League, QB is Deep IMO, as is the TE position in 2010. I think the WR-WR (probably RB-RB-RB in the next 3 Rds) Strategy would be the 'most likely' to happen, but if someone REALLY enticing slips to me in the 2nd Round, I CANNOT pass on him... So we shall see! Goodluck and Im thoroughly enjoying the feedback and I like the diverse opinions!!! Keep em coming!!!
10Team H2H
(8-1 Record)
QB- Stafford
WR- VJax
WR- Marshall
WR/RB-JNelson
RB- RRice
RB- DMC
TE- Gronkowski
K- Akers
DEF- WW Matchups
Bench- Bradford, Morris, Meachem, JBest, JBaldwin, Ridley
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Re: The #5 Pick Overall is Annoying this Year!!!

Postby Juhlz » Thu Aug 26, 2010 11:55 am

I have the 5th pick in a ppr 12 team money league and here is the way I look at it. The BPA strategy is definately valid yet has limitations. I look to fill positions with a top 3-5 player in the early rounds. In other words, If one of the top 4 rb's fall to me I will take one. I don't trust Gore and don't like Turner in ppr. I would happily take AJ at 5. From there, with the next few picks I go for top wr's, qb's, rb's. There are big 3rd and 4th tiers within rb's and wr's where you can choose solid 2nd and 3rd options later. By getting top options at skill positions, you match-up very well with other teams.
I think you can build depth later with similar numbers that the BPA drafter gets early. But while you are marching out studs, the BPA drafter has studs on the bench because he drafted (ie) the best 3 rb's with his first 3 picks. Then, he settles for 3rd tier wr's and qb. You get what I am saying? I guess I am somewhat of a line-up filler first, sans team D and kicker, of course.
Additionally, there is more upside with many of the later picks than with earlier BPA. Scenario: Say I feel CBenson is best available in the mid second round. He has one good year under his belt. But the second round is where he is going so you are dictating BPA by where people value him not by, really, anything else. If he is there in the 3rd, you are like, whoa, I gotta pick Benson, he is the BPA simply because people value him as a 2nd rounder. IMO last season was his ceiling. They have more weapons there now. Anyway, I could point out more fallacies of BPA but I do think it does hold some value during a draft. But my point is BPA is set by consensus.
Another BIG point I would like to share is that you can build a solid team from any draft position. To me each position has it's advantage and disadvantages. I do think 1 and 2 are nice this season but you have the disadvantage later in drafts when you are watching everyone clean out you queue as you wait.
Lastly, try to get the safest picks you can early on...what you say Calvin Johnson is ranked higher than Roddy White? No way, look at Roddy's consistency relative to CJ's. You say sky is the limit for CJ. Uh, look at the Lions schedule and, well, Stafford is no Brees, Manning, etc.
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Re: The #5 Pick Overall is Annoying this Year!!!

Postby tomkatt » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:54 am

I picked there tonight in our 12 team $ league:

1. CJ
2. AP
3. Brees
4. Rodgers
5. MJD - I was fine with this -lol.
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Re: The #5 Pick Overall is Annoying this Year!!!

Postby Metropolitans » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:21 am

Well its ironic that in my big $ league, i have the 5th overall pick, so ive been mocking outta that spot for a couple weeks now. my big money draft isnt till this weekend but i had another competetive league for money that drafted tuesday... and of course i got the 5th pick overall!!

luckily i was very prepared for this draft slot and put together a winner....

QB-Flacco
WR-R. Wayne
WR-Fitz
WR-M Floyd
RB- Turner
RB- A Foster
TE- Finley
W/R/T- K Moreno
Ben-TJ Housh, Felix Jones, LdT, RunDMC, Donald Brown, Anthony Gonzalez

Obviously, I wasnt thrilled with Flacco under center but my Primary choice at QB got nabbed a Round before i had em projected (and by the Peyton Owner of course!) so I missed on Carson Palmer whom I have projected to have a BIG year. Im very thrilled with my depth at RB, as our league has a Flex position, and call me old school, but i much prefer a RB in that flex spot. Plus, I made up my mind that if the league were PPR, id take Andre Johnson in the 5 hole, as u can tell, it was not PPR... Overall Im very please with my team outta the 5 Hole and i hope to put together a very similar team in my big money league (with Palmer of course! glad i learned my lesson here insteada when the big $s on the line!)
10Team H2H
(8-1 Record)
QB- Stafford
WR- VJax
WR- Marshall
WR/RB-JNelson
RB- RRice
RB- DMC
TE- Gronkowski
K- Akers
DEF- WW Matchups
Bench- Bradford, Morris, Meachem, JBest, JBaldwin, Ridley
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