Think any RB in WAS has value? Stunning breakdown inside!

[bostonsoxandy]

this was a question I answered in the Fact/Fiction thread, I really fun thread to participate in by the way click http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=466972&start=90to go to it.

So one of the questions I answered was: F/F: One RB will establish themselves as "the guy" in Washington and be the fulltime starter getting more then 66% of the carries on a weekly basis. (Keep in mind the assortment of RBs in Wash backfield and Shanahans crazy RBBC rotation)

and I answered:
Pure Fiction-Time to breakdown Shanahans ways distributing carries as a coach...let's look at him as the HC of the Broncos from 2003-2008:

2003--Clinton Portis-290 carries Quentin Griffin-94 carries Mike Anderson-70 carries Jake Plummer-37 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 59% (290/491 carries)
2004--Reuben Droughns-275 carries Quentin Griffin-85 carries Tatum Bell-75 carries Jake Plummer-62 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 55% (275/497 carries)
2005--Mike Anderson-239 carries Tatum Bell-173 carries Ron Dayne-53 carries---Top Dog Percentage: 51% (239/465 carries)
2006--Tatum Bell-233 carries Mike Bell-157 carries Jake Plummer-36 carries Damien Nash-16 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 52% (233/442 carries)
2007--Travis Henry-167 carries Selvin Young-140 carries Andre Hall-44 carries Jay Cutler-44 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 42% (167/395 carries)
2008--Michael Pittman-76 carries Peyton Hillis-68 carries Selvin Young-61 carries Jay Cutler-57 carries Tatum Bell-44 carries Andre Hall-35 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 22% (76/341 carries)

This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season. Even when he is given beauts like Clinton Portis at age 22 in 2003 where he rushed for 1500+ yards and over 5.5 yards per carry he only gave him 59% of the rushes.
It also shows, call me crazy but the stats support me, that he has been runnning the ball less and less throughout his career and relying more on the passsing game.
consider that-even if this year he had AMAZING talent, like Portis @ 22 years old, or Droughns at 26, or Tatum Bell at 24 and 25...he doesn't use them to the 66% you asked. EVER.

Now you have to conisder his situation as the HC of Washington now and the mess of a backfield he has there:
Larry Johnson age-30
Clinton Portis age-28
Willie Parker age-29
Ryan Torrain age-24
Even if one those guys can average 6 yards per carry and rush for 1500+ yards in a season if given enough carries, Shannahan won't give em those carries. he never has, and never will.


As you can see in review, Shanahan has never given someone 66% and it has GONE DOWN every single year even when given dominant backs like Travis Henry or Tatum Bell in their primes

[011472]

Excellent breakdown of the Shanahan era in Denver, but I'm not sure I'd call it stunning as I'm not sure many people here thought any of the old guys in this bad offense had much value. If anything, I'll be looking at Torain as a late steal/waiver wire project.

Also, I'm not sure we could call Tatum Ball, Rueben Droughns or Travis Henry "amazing" or "dominant."

[abrunn11]

This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season.

1996: Terrell Davis - 345 carries out of 525 + 66%
1997: Terrell Davis - 369 carries out of 520 = 71%
1998: Terrell Davis - 392 carries out of 525 = 75%
1999: The strating runningbacks accounted for 74% of the carries. Davis was injured and only started 4 games. Olandis Gary started the final 12 games and carried the ball 276 times out 373 for 74%.

I think if you dig deeper you will find that these numbers are skewed due to injury, not because Shannahan refuses to have a go-to guy.

[Cooner]

Actually, in 2003 Portis was injured and missed three games:

2003: Portis, '03 -- 290 in 13 games

In those same 13 games:
Griffin - 38
Anderson 42
Plummer 25

Portis -- 73%

I think what's clear is that Shanahan will ride a stud, but only if he has a stud. And no, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, and Tatum Bell did not count.

That backfield is extremely interesting though. I can't imagine that a stud does come out, but if it does, I wouldn't want to have to guess which one. I'd imagine they'll all have some value, and would want more than one if I was taking one.

[tcwhy]

Guys - thought this might be pertinent to the thread. If LJ and Fast Willie are gone, I wonder how the splits will be affected. I seem to remember Torian being a Shanahan favorite in Denver (could be wrong)...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... ?related=1

Larry Johnson and Willie Parker could both get cut
Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on August 24, 2010 12:04 PM ET
Use up all your jokes about the Redskins backfield while you can, because the 2005 fantasy football All Stars may get broken up before the season even starts.

We've said all offseason that Willie Parker had an uphill battle to make the roster. Now Jason Reid of the Washington Post writes that it "wouldn't be shocking" if Larry Johnson and Parker were both cut. Parker also could possibly pass Johnson with a strong preseason effort this weekend.

Johnson's biggest issue, other than the fact he hasn't been explosive runner since Herm Edwards broke him, remains in pass protection. L.J. "performed woefully" in blitz pickup in his extended work against the Ravens. (He also rushed eight times for four yards and dropped a pass.)

Reid credits a source that the Redskins have been concerned about their backfield depth even before camp. The team could choose to keep Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams as backups, and possibly look to the waiver wire to fill the backup job for Clinton Portis.

Parker and Johnson received relatively small signing bonuses combining for $300,000, so cutting them wouldn't be that painful financially.

[Oatsdad]

I didn't need a "stunning breakdown" to tell me the WAS RB situation was one to avoid. Three worn-down RBs = stay away! Even if/when CP gets the starting job, he's just one good hit from the end of his season - and maybe career.

If CP fell waaaaaaay down in a draft, I'd take a flier on him, but not with any confidence...

[CBMGreatOne]

Portis is a sneaky value in this backfield even in spite of the fact that he won't likely secure 60% or more of the workload. I'm not saying to take him in round 5/6, but in round 10/11, where he is occasionally falling, I could easily see him defying father time for at least one more season and putting together a 1200 total yards, 7 TD season, which is perfectly serviceable for an RB3. At a certain point in the draft, the price becomes right. Don't reach for him, but don't ignore him outright either.

[Goody]

I see Portis being selected in the 7th - 8th rounds in most of the mocks I am doing. His ADP is 8.03 in 12 team non-ppr. NO THANKS!!! I will target M. Bush in the same rounds.

[CBMGreatOne]

I agree that Bush is better, along with Foster, Bradshaw, Spiller, Best, etc., but Portis deserves to go ahead of guys like Cadillac Williams, Montario Hardesty, Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor etc.

According to yahoo ADP results, Portis is averaging pick 111 in yahoo drafts. It isn't hard to envision him presenting an excellent value at that number even with a mediocre season by his standards. This is a guy only a year removed from being a top 40 pick. There's pretty much no time where it's appropriate to ignore a player altogether and this is no exception. He doesn't have the upside of the Bradshaw'/Spiller/Bests of the world, but he's in there somewhere. I'd take him over Brandon Jacobs easily.

[bostonsoxandy]

This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season.

1996: Terrell Davis - 345 carries out of 525 + 66%
1997: Terrell Davis - 369 carries out of 520 = 71%
1998: Terrell Davis - 392 carries out of 525 = 75%
1999: The strating runningbacks accounted for 74% of the carries. Davis was injured and only started 4 games. Olandis Gary started the final 12 games and carried the ball 276 times out 373 for 74%.

I think if you dig deeper you will find that these numbers are skewed due to injury, not because Shannahan refuses to have a go-to guy.

Coupla reasons I didnt include these years:
1. Terrell Davis was a beast from 1996 to 99...the Washington sitch now doesn't have anything close to a beast

2. They didn't have any other options on the team to run with even if Shanhan wanted to implement some type of RBBC. The second best runner was John Elway. No joke.