Think any RB in WAS has value? Stunning breakdown inside!

[moochman]

What I found stunning was that FWP - Fraud Willie Parker is older than Portis. Careers are short in the NFL FWP and LJ clearly show that. LJ, really, seemed only a few years ago we heard talk of you still wearing diapers, now we hear you're ready for Depends.

Torian and whichever RB nobody has ever heard of has 50-50 chances of rushing for over 100 yards in week one. Shananagans!

[rhbcub]

Interesting numbers. But I don't draw the conclusion that Portis doesn't have value because of them. Here are last years top 10 rushers. The 1st number is the percentage of carries he got, the # in parentheses is the % once you remove QB rushes.

Chris Johnson 0.717435 (0.82678984)
Steven Jackson 0.788321167883212 (0.841558441558442)
Thomas Jones 0.545304777594728 (0.592128801431127)
Maurice Jones-Drew 0.697986577181208 (0.843243243243243)
Adrian Peterson 0.67237687366167 (0.712018140589569)
Ray Rice 0.542735042735043 (0.597647058823529)
Ryan Grant 0.643835616438356 (0.752)
Cedric Benson 0.596039603960396 (0.650107991360691)
Jonathan Stewart 0.420952380952381 (0.445564516129032)
Ricky Williams 0.473477406679764 (0.514957264957265)

[mattb47]

2003--Clinton Portis-290 carries Quentin Griffin-94 carries Mike Anderson-70 carries Jake Plummer-37 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 59% (290/491 carries)
2004--Reuben Droughns-275 carries Quentin Griffin-85 carries Tatum Bell-75 carries Jake Plummer-62 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 55% (275/497 carries)
2005--Mike Anderson-239 carries Tatum Bell-173 carries Ron Dayne-53 carries---Top Dog Percentage: 51% (239/465 carries)
2006--Tatum Bell-233 carries Mike Bell-157 carries Jake Plummer-36 carries Damien Nash-16 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 52% (233/442 carries)
2007--Travis Henry-167 carries Selvin Young-140 carries Andre Hall-44 carries Jay Cutler-44 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 42% (167/395 carries)
2008--Michael Pittman-76 carries Peyton Hillis-68 carries Selvin Young-61 carries Jay Cutler-57 carries Tatum Bell-44 carries Andre Hall-35 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 22% (76/341 carries)

Well...first of all, it skewes the numbers horribly if you count a QB's carries like Jake Plummer. I mean those are hardly planned runs so why would you even include those in deciding what percentage he ran with one guys in comparison to others?

So you look at 2003 as an example...using the numbers you gave without Plummer, Portis had roughly 64% of the carries among those RBs. Unfortunately...that number is ALSO misleading considering that Portis only played 13 games of that season...he averaged 22 carries per game in his starts (on pace for 357 for the season). So if you take out the carries that Griffin and Anderson had in the games that Portis didn't play in so you can get a better percentage...it comes to 44 for Anderson and 36 for Griffin. So when Portis was starting...he had a whopping 78% of the carries among RBs there. Not sure that really supports what you're trying to say in that respect. Also consider that in the games Portis was out that year, there was a RB with 20+ carries in 2 of the 3 games he missed.

Move on to 2004 now. Know how many games they used one guy for 20+ carries that season? 10 out of 16. And most of those games where they didn't wasn't because they spread it out so thin...it was more because they just didn't run much in some of those games. Even if you don't consider that Droughns didn't really begin playing significant time until the 5th game of the season or that he had one more game later where he didn't run much because of a blowout game against KC, he had 63% of the RB carries that year. Starting with the week that he began getting a heavier workload (week 5), Droughns averaged 22 carries per game for the rest of the season...seeing a pattern at all?

2005 was probably one of the first years that we really saw a true RBBC idea at all for Shanahan...and even then Anderson averaged a solid 16.8 carries per game after his initial game where he only touched it 4 times. 2006 was more of the same with no one really stepping up enough to take control of the carries.

2007 again though saw Shanahan at least trying to roll with a single RB for most games as his primary ballcarrier but injuries forced multiple guys to show up with similar carry totals. Travis Henry carried the ball 20 times per game before his injury that year which forced him in and out of action the rest of the year. Selvin Young had 4 games of 17+ carries...and even Andre Hall had a game with 26 carries. So that's most of the season at least attempting to rely on a single guy depending on who was healthy.

Now...as much crap as Shanahan seems to get from the FF community about his RBBC approaches...he really is more of a "1 RB" type of coach when he has someone he can rely on from week to week. He proved it when he had guys who would actually stay healthy for extended time in Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis in 2003 and then even Reuben Droughns won him over in 2004. Henry would have likely been another example in 2007 if he hadn't gotten hurt again.

If someone like Portis can show that he can be a guy they can depend on from week to week, I think he could definitely see another 300+ carry season provided he stays healthy. Not sure how likely that is but if it happens, he could be a steal and it doesn't look like LJ or Parker are even close to Portis right now with respect to how the coaching staff views them. I know I'm willing to take a chance on Portis for where he's being drafted right now for sure.

[justinj312]

No I don't think any Wash RB has value, I don' think any Wash WR has value, and I don't think any Wash QB has value (5 is hurt already). The OL is terrible.

I do think their TE's have value though.

[CBMGreatOne]

No I don't think any Wash RB has value, I don' think any Wash WR has value, and I don't think any Wash QB has value (5 is hurt already). The OL is terrible.

I do think their TE's have value though.

What is your criteria for "value?" Most leagues carry 10+ teams with 16+ players per team. I think Santana and Clinton crack that top 160. That is value, whether you care or not. I've made the mistake of leaving players for dead in fantasy too many times to count, let alone lisst. If you think Portis is so washed up that he's undraftable, don't be surprised when he burns you.

[justinj312]

My criteria for value is playing more than 8 games and scoring more than 2 TDs.

[CBMGreatOne]

My criteria for value is playing more than 8 games and scoring more than 2 TDs.

I guess you're not touching Shonn Greene then huh?

[swyck]

Portis had no value in 2003? 1900 yds and 14 tds!
Droughns in 2004 - 1400+ yds tot and 8 tds
Anderson in 2005 - 1200+ yds and 19tds

So yeah, the later years didn't work out that well but IMO injuries and just plain suckytude had more to do with that. And no I'm not looking for much value from WAS RB, but if any of them get better than 50% of the carries they may have some value after all.

[bostonsoxandy]

Portis had no value in 2003? 1900 yds and 14 tds!
Droughns in 2004 - 1400+ yds tot and 8 tds
Anderson in 2005 - 1200+ yds and 19tds

So yeah, the later years didn't work out that well but IMO injuries and just plain suckytude had more to do with that. And no I'm not looking for much value from WAS RB, but if any of them get better than 50% of the carries they may have some value after all.

i didn't say that portis in 03 had no value...I said the exact opposite calling him a stud stud stud....im saying that if any Washington RB even gtes 50% (which they won't) none are even close to portis in 03 or anderson in 05 or droughns in 04

[CBMGreatOne]

Portis had no value in 2003? 1900 yds and 14 tds!
Droughns in 2004 - 1400+ yds tot and 8 tds
Anderson in 2005 - 1200+ yds and 19tds

So yeah, the later years didn't work out that well but IMO injuries and just plain suckytude had more to do with that. And no I'm not looking for much value from WAS RB, but if any of them get better than 50% of the carries they may have some value after all.

This is all I'm saying. It doesn't take much to be startable at flex in a 12 team league. I certainly don't expect Portis to light the world on fire, but if he gets half, or more, of the carries, he should be good for a double digit ppg average. That's fantasy roster material in all but the shallowest of leagues. Why stop with Portis though? Torain or Williams, given a significant role (10+ carries) would definitely belong on a roster, but Portis is the only one who is currently draftable.