Lucky7 wrote:I have always played in leagues where passing TDs are worth 4 pts, and I have generally avoided taking a QB early (under the theory that the difference between the #1 QB and #10 QB is generally less than at other positions), and had good success. I'm curious whether this strategy holds true in leagues that award 6 pts for passing TDs. I would think that the logic remains the same given that the relative value between the QBs remains the same regardless of whether they get 4 or 6 pts. Any thoughts?
I think it's a balance. While your theory of relative value still holds true, there becomes a difference in certain QB's who may be yardage-heavy, but not so much touchdown-heavy.
For example, Kyle Orton threw for 3802 yards and 21 TD last year, which would have made him a low-end #1 QB in deeper leagues, but his value took a hit in touchdown-heavy leagues, which dropped him into the caliber of being a #2 QB even in deep leagues.
Overall, though, the value doesn't change a whole lot. If you consider that you're only adding 2 points per touchdown, even if you compare two guys who have the exact same passing yardage while one throws 6 more touchdowns on the year than the other; that only equates to a 12-point difference on the year from a normal scoring system.
What it really comes down to is what other owners in your league think. A lot of people still have the "I need to get the player who scores the most total points" mindset and they don't think about the relative value. Because of this, if you're in a 6-point passing TD league, you will probably see quarterbacks taken maybe a round or perhaps two higher than they would be in normal fantasy drafts. Whereas Peyton Manning might've been a mid-to-late-2nd rounder in normal scoring systems, he might bump up to a late 1st-rounder in a TD-heavy passing league.
Again, though, I contend that fantasy owners should go into their draft saying, "I don't want a QB worse than this guy" and then target him, or maybe the QB above him, when they're drafting. This is often somewhere between the 6th-12th ranked QB, depending on your preferences and your desire to be 'safe'. If you have this strategy, you let the elite guys go early and you can wait until you're practically forced to grab a starting QB based on the guys who are left. You'll still have a QB whom you're comfortable with, but you won't have to spend such a high pick on him... And guys like Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Kevin Kolb, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, and Brett Favre in that 6-12 range; most owners can find at least a name or two on that list whom they'd be comfortable with.